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Old 18-03-2019, 23:50   #1
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Buying in a recession

I am curious about the potential of buying a yacht in a recession. If the doomsday forecasters are correct we should have either already started a recession or be hit by one any day now. Whilst they are probably all just saying this for attention or some other unknown reason, historically recession do occur after relatively predictable bull markets, so one is likely too occur sooner or later.

Whilst it is like trying to time the market, and I would rather be on yacht sailing the Med right now, it does present a possible opportunity to buy a dream boat at a bargain. I can wait and keep working and saving for a few year. But, to my questions.

Has anyone bought a boat during a recession? Do the prices drop like I am expecting? From what I can find on google (which isn't much) there is some chance to find a bargain, including boats which get repo'd by banks. However, I wouldn't be expecting many blue water cruising boats to have been bought on credit (could be wrong). Do you think it's worth waiting?

I also expect there is the potential for currencies and exchange rates to change, as buying in USD from NZ currently makes a US$60k yacht NZ$100k. This is something I will research some more as a general economic change I don't really understand.
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Old 19-03-2019, 03:56   #2
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Re: Buying in a recession

Thats my plan. When times are hard and you can't pay all your bills, will you lose your house or sell your yacht?
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Old 19-03-2019, 04:37   #3
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Re: Buying in a recession

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Originally Posted by l2ustyl3ullet View Post
Do the prices drop like I am expecting?
Perhaps not. What happened during the last crash is the change in exchange rates made buying a UK boat for a European an excellent opportunity. The actually UK price didn't change much because sales were good and so many were shipped to Europe. Since then the prices of secondhand boats has slowly drifted downwards as to be expected, but it wasn't a cliff fall, thankfully.

Prices for European boats particularly ex-charter boats dropped as new boats were introduced into the fleet and there were fewer buyers for ex charter yachts. There were some bargains if you were willing to accept a boat that had been used hard by novices and all that entails.

What is your definition of a blue water cruising boat? Are Bavaria, Beneteau and Jeanneau's blue water cruising yachts? Are there other water coloured yachts that would meet your needs?

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Old 19-03-2019, 04:48   #4
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Brexit should have an effect on the prices of Brit boats based in the Med..
Don't Panic..!!!
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Old 19-03-2019, 04:57   #5
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Re: Buying in a recession

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Brexit should have an effect on the prices of Brit boats based in the Med..
Don't Panic..!!!
If the yacht retains its VAT paid status, the price might go up. Meanwhile a UK located yacht to a European buyer that might need another dose of VAT to be paid on it, this may not be so attractive. Of course this only applies if we leave, not much progress on that debacle so far.

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Old 19-03-2019, 09:46   #6
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Re: Buying in a recession

Perhaps think about it regionally and in a broader economic context.

In any area where supply exceeds demand there will be downward pricing pressure regardless of the state of the economy.

Watch for that.

Recessions can be very localized as well.

Places like Hawaii and Langkawi Malaysia are known for being the end of cruises. South Fl also good, but you have to make sure it is not hurricane damaged and only cosmetically repaired.

Have fun with the search and take your time!

It is not all price either. Consider the specific value to you of any boat you examine. Timing/condition, etc.
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Old 19-03-2019, 10:10   #7
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Re: Buying in a recession

Generally boats are a luxury market and as such prices are more volatile during good and bad times. True cruising boats however are highly mobile so if the market crashes wouldn't any seller simply move the boat to a better market?
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Old 19-03-2019, 10:23   #8
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Re: Buying in a recession

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Generally boats are a luxury market and as such prices are more volatile during good and bad times. True cruising boats however are highly mobile so if the market crashes wouldn't any seller simply move the boat to a better market?
Right, why wouldnt they move it? But I see it all the time. Great boats in out of the way Places that would likely sell faster in a better market that is not
that far away.
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Old 19-03-2019, 10:35   #9
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Re: Buying in a recession

Never mind a yacht.
I can get you a great deal on a Boeing 737 Max.
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Old 19-03-2019, 10:35   #10
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Re: Buying in a recession

People with sufficient disposable income are immune from most recessions. Those who are dependent on loans for boat purchases in any recession may be unwise to purchase but doing that has never been a good fiscal decision regardless of the economy.
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Old 19-03-2019, 10:41   #11
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Re: Buying in a recession

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Never mind a yacht.
I can get you a great deal on a Boeing 737 Max.

Now the aviation equivalent of a Dock Queen! Never goes anywhere!
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Old 19-03-2019, 11:04   #12
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Re: Buying in a recession

2008 in Mallorca Spain , boat prices dropped heavily, I could have bought a 2003 Beneteau 411, private owned, owners version in excellent condition for 50,000 euro. House prices also plummeted as I knew to my cost.. Wish Id bought that Beneteau but I had an old Amel that I couldnt sell......
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Old 19-03-2019, 11:29   #13
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Re: Buying in a recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by SVTwilight View Post
Right, why wouldn't they move it? But I see it all the time. Great boats in out of the way Places that would likely sell faster in a better market that is not that far away.
Boats at the end of the down wind journey locations such as Langkawi, Hawaii, Fiji, NZ and Australia, even Panama, for some people, are often the manifestation of a bad trip. Turned out that life in a boat wasn't the same as the their vicarious fantasy after watching every episode of Sailing La Vagabond. And mounting a For Sale sign up is their only alternative to sailing back to the USA and the thousands of miles of upwind sailing that requires.

Perhaps we could discuss some causes of dissatisfaction?
Anecdotally I would postulate, that for couples, many discover that the relationship issues that they had on land left shore with them, but as time goes on, those issues are accentuated by the confines of being on a boat.

So by the time they get to Opua or wherever they've had enough. They recognise the threat and risks to their relationship and value that higher. They accept they tried the cruising life style and it wasn't for them. They just want out.
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Old 19-03-2019, 13:06   #14
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Re: Buying in a recession

A Boeing 737 max would make for a fun DIY conversion project. But I don't think the council would accept it as a movable temporary house like my bus is.

But what I'm taking from everyone's comments is that they might be some potential bargains to be had, but there are no real guarantees. So probably not an excuse to delay.

I wouldn't really want to go for any of the ex-charter boats, partly due to the expectation they have been treated badly, but also because they are often the production boats, like the Catalina's, Beneteau and Jeanneau's, etc. and are usually not the owners versions. I wouldn't really consider them blue water yachts even if they are more then capable. Nevertheless, it might be worth considering as an option if much new models become significantly cheaper.

But I would rather go for some of the much older Moody's, Morgans and I have been liking the look of some Westerly's, in the 41-44 foot range.
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Old 19-03-2019, 13:45   #15
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Re: Buying in a recession

It's sort of a buyer's market now, so I'm not sure why you'd want to delay.
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