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Old 18-05-2004, 15:52   #1
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Expect a busy hurricane season

NOAA: Expect a busy hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its Atlantic hurricane season forecast Monday (May 17), and it calls for another year of above-normal activity.

NOAA says it anticipates 12 to 15 tropical storms, of which six to eight will become hurricanes — two to four of them “major” hurricanes. The agency classifies major hurricanes as those with wind speeds above 111 miles per hour.`

Monday’s announcement came as part of the agency’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week, which runs through Saturday. NOAA defines the hurricane season as the period between June 1 and Nov. 30, with most of the activity concentrated during the late summer and early fall.

Many of the storms will form in the August-to-October period over the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, and track westward, NOAA says.

In terms of percentages NOAA says the chances for an above-normal season are 50 percent; for a near-normal season, 40 percent; and for a below-normal season, 10 percent.

NOAA: 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook - Issued: May 17, 2004

And from my favourite hurricane “Guru”:

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2004 by William M. Gray and Philip Klotzbach (April 2, 2004)


1) Entire U.S. coastline - 68% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Dr. Grey's Full report:

Gord May
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Old 19-05-2004, 04:57   #2
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I used to respect Dr. Gray's forecast until I compared forecasted vs. actual for the last 12 years.

Only one year (1992) was on the money with 4 predicted and 4 actual.

From 1993 to 1998, the error ranged from 33% (1993 with 6 predicted and 4 actual) to 100% (1998 with 5 predicted and 10 actual).

2001 had 5 predicted and 9 actual.
2002 had 8 predicted and 4 actual.
2003 had 8 predicted and 7 actual (his second best ever since 1999 with 9 predicted and 8 actual).

Predicting how many hurricanes is not really very beneficial - predicting landfalling hurricanes or especially WHERE they will strike is much more important.

Hurricane Andrew, the worst hurricane in recent history happened during Dr. Gray's 1992 prediction of 4 hurricanes. He was right on the money, and had predicted a much slower hurricane season. Unfortunately, the prediction had no value in terms of severity or damage.

Predicting 7 hurricanes every year for the past 12 years would have about equalled Dr. Gray's record. Therefore, I predict 7 for each of the next 12 years!
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Old 19-05-2004, 15:30   #3
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The exact nature of the huricanes and how and when they hit seem to make the bggest diffeence as pointed out with Andrew.

Last year I was too close to Isabell and the eye of Marty within 2 days of each other. Sort of being at the worst places all at the worst times. I don't think there would be a probability of that happening. Neither of those rate high on any list of the worst ones but the ones that hit you personally are the ones that really matter more.

If you are in a part of the world that can have them you need to be mindful of them.
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