NOAA: Expect a busy hurricane season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its Atlantic hurricane
Monday (May 17), and it calls for another year of above-normal activity.
NOAA says it anticipates 12 to 15 tropical storms, of which six to eight will become hurricanes — two to four of them “major” hurricanes. The agency classifies major hurricanes as those with wind
speeds above 111 miles per hour.`
Monday’s announcement came as part of the agency’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week, which runs through Saturday. NOAA defines the hurricane season as the period between June 1 and Nov. 30, with most of the activity concentrated during the late summer and early fall.
Many of the storms will form in the August-to-October period over the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean
Sea, and track westward, NOAA says.
In terms of percentages NOAA says the chances for an above-normal season are 50 percent; for a near-normal season, 40 percent; and for a below-normal season, 10 percent.
NOAA: 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook - Issued: May 17, 2004
And from my favourite hurricane “Guru”:
Extended Range Forecast
of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2004 by William M. Gray and Philip Klotzbach (April 2, 2004)
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 68% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast
Including Peninsula Florida
- 48% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast
from the Florida
Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
Dr. Grey's Full report: