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goboatingnow · 12-01-2014, 13:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

No denominator provided in your analysis. For a small denominator one incident is significant.

I also would seriously question the completeness of incident documentation. That said, it's are better than making it up.

It was a list of all incidents they have collated. it matters not what the denominator is . I suspect nobody know the number of cruisers in the Carribean and what the breakdown is.

Just using the numbers themselves, 16 thefts of dinghies, a few burgarlies and 4 serious assaults. ( 2 of which where in Venezuela ) would not suggest the place is heaving with crime.

dave

colemj · 12-01-2014, 14:01

How do you describe an "incident"? Is it having a bag of groceries stolen out of your dinghy or is it being hacked to death? Or are those equal?

And remember, when it comes to theft, the locals and locale are not the only players - does cruiser crime against cruiser count? If so, how does the locale or country even matter?

Mark

goboatingnow · 12-01-2014, 14:11

Jimmy Cornells survey of boat movements in 2010puts about 20,000 movements in Bermuda, so we can safety say the number of yachts in the Carribean in general must be significantly more.

This would put the thoses number as very low percentages indeed.

I mean the UK boat park figure is estimated at 2.2 million, and 210 OB were stolen last year , suggesting a rate of 1 in 10,000. Which on similar statics would suggest say 160,000 in the whole Carribean. I suspect the numbers of yachts are much bigger then that .

jkleins · 12-01-2014, 14:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by rognvald

....."Group B," of which I consider myself, consists of those who have traveled to those areas in the past(or those going for the first time) when the issue of crime(theft, robbery, assault, rape and mayhem) were virtually non-existent and believe the considerable reports that have plagued the cruising community in recent years. ......

I think if you felt that the danger was "virtually non-existent" back in the 90's you were mistaken back then. This has to cloud your perception of the current "danger".

I cruised during the same time frame as your early years and personally met people who had been robbed and beaten. Dinghies were routinely locked by those who didn't want them stolen and advice was frequent to "not look like a yachty" when out in town. I was in the lower part of the Caribbean so maybe the upper was better but the folks I met who came from there seemed to have the same experience and used the same caution.

I am not saying that things are not different today. I probably would not cruise the Venezuela coast like my wife and I did back in '96 today. But looking back I probably wouldn't make the same decision today even given the same facts. When we were young we felt less vulnerable. Now that I am older I probably wouldn't mess with it.

So maybe some of what you are perceiving as an increase in crime is just your lack of exposure to it back during your earlier cruise. Coupled with the increase in persistent communication techniques and your own changing tolerance for risk that could make it seem like a significant change. Mine was different so the change doesn't seem so great. I do have less taste for risk though so will probably not do some of the things I did on my first cruise when we go back out.

Jim

LakeSuperior · 12-01-2014, 14:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

It was a list of all incidents they have collated. it matters not what the denominator is . I suspect nobody know the number of cruisers in the Carribean and what the breakdown is.

Just using the numbers themselves, 16 thefts of dinghies, a few burgarlies and 4 serious assaults. ( 2 of which where in Venezuela ) would not suggest the place is heaving with crime.

dave

OK, back of the envelope time. A notional example here. Your numbers for six months. Double the numbers for one year. Call it 8 serious assaults, 4 outside of Venezuela. Call it 2000 cruisers for the year (not counting charters). The violent assault rate is 4 per 2000 or

200 violent assaults per 100,000 cruisers.

By comparison, in 2010 the rate for aggravated assaults nationwide was 28 per 100,000. If Europe is double then it would be 56 aggravated assaults per 100,000. So for cruisers one could imagine rates that are 3.5 to 7 times higher in the Caribbean than the US or Europe.

For some this is no big deal. Maybe more caution, more situational awareness. For others the risk may limit which Caribbean countries to visit depending on local fluctuations. I at least want to know order of magnitude so that I am not thinking 10's when I should be thinking 100's or 1000's.

goboatingnow · 12-01-2014, 14:32

Quote:

2000 cruisers for the year (not counting charters).

Your kidding me, there is tens of thousands of yachts in the Carribean, and why not count charter boats , last time i looked they were yachts , equally there are 100000s of boats based there, See Jimmys 2010 survey, 2000 is tiny , theres more boats at antigua week then that .

dave

LakeSuperior · 12-01-2014, 14:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Your kidding me, there is tens of thousands of yachts in the Carribean, and why not count charter boats , last time i looked they were yachts , equally there are 100000s of boats based there, See Jimmys 2010 survey, 2000 is tiny , theres more boats at antigua week then that .

dave

I went through the northern Caribbean in 2011/2012 and my sense was there were way fewer boats and even fewer active cruisers than I expected.

Although you have a high season, there way fewer active cruisers in the summer months. The denominator should be a number which represents the number of whole year equivalent actively cruised yachts. 2000 yachts for one week doesn't make 100,000's.

goboatingnow · 12-01-2014, 14:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

I went through the northern Caribbean in 2011/2012 and my sense was there were way fewer boats and even fewer active cruisers than I expected.

Although you have a high season, there way fewer active cruisers in the summer months. The denominator should be a number which represents the number of whole year equivalent actively cruised yachts. 2000 yachts for one week doesn't make 100,000's.

you have looked at Cornells 2010 survey ??

dave

**boatman61** · 12-01-2014, 14:54

I was in St Martin March 2012.. Marigot Bay anchorage was stacked.. the marina was full.. no space inside on the moorings or docks...
Other side of the Witches Tit the lagoon anchorage was full all the way back to Explorer island and beyond.. Dutch side Palapa and Simpson was quieter coz folk have to pay there..

Marina's were stacked out as well... did not see Phillipsburg or Oyster but doubtless they were busy as well..

LakeSuperior · 12-01-2014, 14:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

you have looked at Cornells 2010 survey ??

dave

If I have it right then from his survey 1367 yachts were stored in Trinidad for hurricane season. 18,467 cleared into the Bahamas (most are short term stays from FL I would guess).

Based on his numbers unless I missed something you would have a tough time getting to 5000 full time year equivalent cruising boats even counting charters.

goboatingnow · 12-01-2014, 15:05

Quote:

Based on his numbers unless I missed something you would have a tough time getting to 5000 full time year equivalent cruising boats even counting charters.

I don't see your focus on "full time cruisers" The carribean safety and security net , I don't believe differentiates. I suspect we have no data that allows us to dig down that deep. If the sample size is too small, the whole result is in question.

LakeSuperior · 12-01-2014, 15:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I don't see your focus on "full time cruisers" The carribean safety and security net , I don't believe differentiates. I suspect we have no data that allows us to dig down that deep. If the sample size is too small, the whole result is in question.

My thinking on full-time equivalent year cruiser is because we don't want to count all incidents for a year and then use a 1 week charter in the denominator. 52 charters for 1 week is a full-time year equivalent cruiser. We want the events/number of cruisers for one year.

I almost added the sample size point in a earlier post but took it out to avoid complication. Great minds think alike!

sec906 · 12-01-2014, 15:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

54 charters for 1 week is a full-time year equivalent cruiser.

I know all about Island Time, but I didn't realize that gave them two extra weeks every year.

Before you start calculating the little numbers and end up with the wrong numerator and denominator, we all need to make sure we're talking about the same big picture. Are you including Mexico? Venezuela? Cuba? Chile and Brazil (as per OP)? What constitutes the cruising area in consideration?

colemj · 12-01-2014, 16:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

Call it 2000 cruisers for the year (not counting charters).

This number is way, way low. Way low. Easily an order of magnitude, and I am willing to bet more than that.

There are 500-1000 boats in the Rio Dulce, Guatemala right now. There is easily that many in Panama and Colombia. Curacao alone must have at least that many.

The boat counts in Georgetown Bahamas reach 500 at times.

And these are just 4 relatively small places NOT in the Eastern Caribe.

Why not include charters? Those boats are out actively sailing in cruising areas full time. Maybe a couple of weeks/yr dock time, but not much.

Mark