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Old 13-06-2016, 19:41   #31
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

NZ is a paradise. Second prettiest country I ever visited. My sympathies to the family of the people who were killed or lost.
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:11   #32
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Pinguino View Post
That boat was in the Brin Wilson shed at the same time as mine... fire damage was restricted to the deckhouse saloon area .. nowhere else. It was a big $1M NZ dollar refit.
Nothing wrong with the boat.... EDIT .. 'after Wilsons had finished with her'

Wind speeds when it happened? 100/150 knots? as quoted by other racing crews? Whatever.......

There was a bit of a low , not deep, but possibly deep enough to kick up a nasty cross sea over the underlying swell.

You can see the low on the first pic, current conditions in the second..... I wonder if the gribs even picked that low up at the time.

The area north of NZ is as nasty a bit of water as any on the planet.
If you look at the ASCAT sat data it shows 30kts and maybe a bit more
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Old 13-06-2016, 22:40   #33
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

Remaing crew picked up by container ship. Lost crewmen named.
national/386770/search-resumes-dead-yachtie-named
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Old 13-06-2016, 22:55   #34
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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Originally Posted by reed1v View Post
Guess you never sailed in a hurricane before. 90-100 mph winds are strong but a well founded boat should have no problems dealing with it. In those winds you either hove to; or ride with a storm sail. Of course some folks, like Turner, just keep sailing with deep reefs.

Interestingly as the wind rises up to the 140+ mph range, the seas actually flatten out. Most folks at that point just drop all sails, batten down, and let the boat assume its natural stance. Of course a full keeled boat will handle this way better than fin keeled or centerboard boats.
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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
An experienced Force 13 hurricane sailor like you should at least know that it is "heave to".
I guess then the key when you're getting pounded in a Force 11 wind is too head deeper into the storm and find the Force 13's. I didn't know that before.

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Originally Posted by El Pinguino View Post
Dead sailor is Nick Saull, head of Brin Wilson Boat Builders.

He was in charge of my boat's big overhaul in 14/15.

A top bloke.
That brings it a little closer to home, doesn't it? I'm very sorry for his family's loss and for those who knew and respected him.
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Old 13-06-2016, 23:17   #35
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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Originally Posted by Paul L View Post
If you look at the ASCAT sat data it shows 30kts and maybe a bit more
Does that take into consideration the possible 40% on top?
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Old 13-06-2016, 23:34   #36
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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Originally Posted by Rustic Charm View Post
Does that take into consideration the possible 40% on top?
I'm not sure what level of averaging is done on these reading. They are adjusted to 10m neutral stability.
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Old 13-06-2016, 23:46   #37
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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Does that take into consideration the possible 40% on top?
It's a measurement not a GRIB computer model forecast.

There is some error but not 40%.
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Old 14-06-2016, 00:14   #38
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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I'm not sure what level of averaging is done on these reading. They are adjusted to 10m neutral stability.
"Equivalent Neutral Wind speeds 10 meters above the water surface, derived from surface roughness (wind stress), roughly equivalent to an 8 - 10 minute mean surface wind."

So yep, I'd expect to see up to 40% higher in gusts.
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Old 14-06-2016, 00:17   #39
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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It's a measurement not a GRIB computer model forecast.

There is some error but not 40%.
It's a model extrapolation based simply on the overall sea surface roughness of a fairly large expanse of ocean.

Fine for climatology, but not a good indication of conditions at a specfic time in a specfic spot. It certainly won't tell you about gusts.
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Old 14-06-2016, 00:34   #40
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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It's a model extrapolation based simply on the overall sea surface roughness of a fairly large expanse of ocean.

Fine for climatology, but not a good indication of conditions at a specfic time in a specfic spot. It certainly won't tell you about gusts.
I know what it is. It is the best your going to get apart from having a proper weather station there though.

When we talk about wind strength we don't talk about gusts. There is no rule that says that gusts will be 40% higher, they might be 40% higher than gradient, they might be much more than that too. If conditions stable there might not be any significant gusts, it might just be F..ing windy.

Yes it should be a 10 minute average (except in the US and some other places where they use a 1 minute average which leads to some confusion) and it should be measured at 10m or normalised to 10m for which there are formulas that very few people apply to their masthead wind instruments.

Quoting maximum gusts, not having instruments corrected for height, and many people not having much experience at sailing in higher wind speeds contributes to most of the absolute BS we hear about wind speed in boating circles.
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Old 14-06-2016, 00:39   #41
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

Marine Wind Forecast

These wind forecast maps are produced from computer models and may not always reflect official forecasts, especially in the vicinity of weather fronts or Tropical Cyclones.
These maps show average wind speeds. Wind gusts may be 40% stronger.
About forecast wind

This is what I was referring too

Marine Wind Forecast
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Old 14-06-2016, 00:49   #42
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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Originally Posted by Rustic Charm View Post
Marine Wind Forecast

These wind forecast maps are produced from computer models and may not always reflect official forecasts, especially in the vicinity of weather fronts or Tropical Cyclones.
These maps show average wind speeds. Wind gusts may be 40% stronger.
About forecast wind

This is what I was referring too

Marine Wind Forecast
ASCAT is not a forecast. It is satellite based measurement. Very handy to check on how accurate a GRIB was.
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Old 14-06-2016, 02:39   #43
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Re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

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ASCAT is not a forecast. It is satellite based measurement. Very handy to check on how accurate a GRIB was.
Ok cheers
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Old 14-06-2016, 12:54   #44
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Re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Pinguino View Post
Dead sailor is Nick Saull, head of Brin Wilson Boat Builders.
He was in charge of my boat's big overhaul in 14/15.
A top bloke.
Yachtie that died north of NZ was head of a boat building company | Stuff.co.nz
There were two deaths . Another sailor was lost overboard at the time of the rigging problem | NZ Herald.
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Old 14-06-2016, 14:47   #45
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Re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing

No matter how we look at extrapolations and nit pick over this and that...two experienced sailors are claimed by Davey Jones. Over the years I can't keep track of how many fatalities and rescues occurred in that area of the world. I am so sorry for these men who lost their lives and the families who must go it alone without them. What a mess for all concerned. RIP.

Boats break in big seas all the time. They fall off of waves. They get stuffed and stopped suddenly. It doesn't take a hurricane. You also have to factor in fatigue and sea sickness affecting the crews. Things flaying around in even a forty mph wind can be lethal. The boom breaks at the goose neck on a large boat like this...the shizzle is on. I got hit in the head with a shackle many years ago in just beer can racing in 20 knots of wind and went slack in the knees. It happened so quickly. These poor guys lost their lives due to gear failure. Horrific.
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