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Old 08-03-2018, 11:33   #61
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

Iím sure there is a "complacency cycle,Ē as Evans puts it. Iíd bet this is embedded within a larger, more general trend where most accidents cluster in the mid-range of experience. There is clear data from other skills-based activities that this does happen. I donít think we have the same quality of data to answer the question with sailing, but Iíd bet a few shekels that it is valid here.

But as with any statistical finding with broad ranges, it only loosely applies to individuals. I happily call myself a chicken sailor. I avoid putting myself, and my vessel, in difficult situations if I can. I feel no need to test myself against Momma Nature. And I donít ascribe to Ďbucket listí approaches to life Ö not that thereís anything wrong with this. Itís just not the way I live my life.

At the same time, I have travelled the wilds of northern Canada in a canoe, I used to parachute and free climb, drive a small motorcycle all over North America, and choose to cruise places like Lake Superiorís north shore, and now NewfoundlandÖ Iím sure a psychologist would have fun interpreting all that

So where does that place me on the statistical safety curve?
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Old 08-03-2018, 12:56   #62
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

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So where does that place me on the statistical safety curve?
Probably in the middle of your age group who are doing what you are? You noticed it is a small group, anyhow? No, we're out in the end of the +2 standard deviations, we don't fit. Enjoy! Welcome!

I have no idea where I might be in the complacency cycle, but I have noticed a trend that came along with aging: beyond about age 70, for me, I have increased awareness of potential hazards, and alter behavior accordingly. It is quite possible that the over 70 group would no longer fit in most data banks, anyway. One of the benefits to being an older sailor who lives on the water, is that we keep practicing, like the guy with the hang glider.

We are among those who quietly go on, doing what we like to do, and pretty much minding our own business.

Ann
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Old 08-03-2018, 13:04   #63
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

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Probably in the middle of your age group who are doing what you are? You noticed it is a small group, anyhow? No, we're out in the end of the +2 standard deviations, we don't fit. Enjoy! Welcome!

I have no idea where I might be in the complacency cycle, but I have noticed a trend that came along with aging: beyond about age 70, for me, I have increased awareness of potential hazards, and alter behavior accordingly. It is quite possible that the over 70 group would no longer fit in most data banks, anyway. One of the benefits to being an older sailor who lives on the water, is that we keep practicing, like the guy with the hang glider.

We are among those who quietly go on, doing what we like to do, and pretty much minding our own business.
I think that would be called the Mastery level. You know what you know. You know what you donít know. And your unknown-unknowns are small.

When I grow up I want to be just like you
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Old 08-03-2018, 13:16   #64
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

If thinwater's assumption was correct across the board, then we would find pilots of medium experience also became overconfident and stopped doing their pre-flight checks?

Which I don't think happens. If you start out by respecting what the ocean can do, there's no reason to stop respecting it, and stop being cautious.
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Old 08-03-2018, 13:40   #65
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

^^^^
Excellent point, hellosailor. Maybe it's a character trait!
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Old 08-03-2018, 14:31   #66
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

I crashed my boat 6 times and killed myself only 2 times just last week. That’s a positive trend at 67% chance of surviving.
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Old 08-03-2018, 14:43   #67
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

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^^^^
Excellent point, hellosailor. Maybe it's a character trait!
That was the original premise. An experienced sailor/pilot/climber should be safer, all things being equal. But are they? How important is the difference between being careful and being cautious?

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Old 08-03-2018, 15:05   #68
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

Interesting question, thinwater, the difference between being cautious and careful. Meaning "care full", I think "cautious," for me, is being ever more full of care. Not afraid, but attentive, focused.

Mike, it is fun to read that you think of Jim and me as Masters, nice warm, fuzzy feeling; but actually, on this forum alone, as well as in the world, there are sailors of whom I know, that I think THEY are Masters, and far more knowledgeable than Jim and me. Our experience is limited to where we have been, and all our hours have been where the only bad thing that happens is cyclones and winter storms, and both those are much easier to avoid today than when we started out. Anyhow, thanks for the kindly estimation of us, but take a look at El Pinguino, a former professional mariner, for instance, a yachtie with an older boat that he rehabbed, in order to keep what he likes, and he sails in Chile! Or look at Boatman 61, with his sky reading, and his abilities to nurse along a wounded vessel, and I am sure there are many more. The point is, there will always be better sailors than we are, and our job is to do the best we can all the time. No exceptions. Fear is irrelevant: what must be done, needs to be done, right now.

The longer you sit around feeling scared, the more time, precious time, is wasted, and conditions usually worsen. It is how I learned to wear a tether. If I was putting off doing a sail change (before we had roller reefing headsails), it was time to put on the tether and do the job. Mostly, now, we are proactive, to make it easier on us, and to preserve rest for the off watch, but that sense of procrastination, that is a warning to me, to get up on my game, NOW. So heed those niggling things at the back of your mind, and bring them forward and have a look-see at them.

And about admitting mistakes, well that is what we give back, so that others don't have to make the same ones. There seem to be an infinite number of possible ones to make.

Cheers, guys,

Ann
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Old 08-03-2018, 19:27   #69
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

I wonder if more accidents happen near the end of passages or races.

In the construction industry, most accidents tend to happen near the end of a project due to complacency and rushing. I could see the same thing being true of passagemaking, especially with landfalls and whatnot.
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Old 08-03-2018, 19:46   #70
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

When I raced a lot I learned that right after the finish was the most dangerous time. Lots of traffic and crews and skipper including us all letting their guard down.

My best (worst) was losing both spinnaker sheets in about 20 knots and having to figure out how to get the darn thing down and aboard. We ended up motoring dead down wind at full throttle while blanketing the chute with the main as much as possible and snagging a flailing sheet with a boat hook. The foredeck crew was leaning way over the pulpit.

Then we started the second race of the day.

Not really a safe or controlled maneuver.

Iíve since taken the attitude that just when you think you can let go it is the best time to focus and really make sure you CAN let go. Now itís ďwhatís the planĒ and communicate. Then execute. Then relax.

Took a while to learn though.
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Old 09-03-2018, 08:48   #71
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

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1. I wonder if more accidents happen near the end of passages or races.

2. In the construction industry, most accidents tend to happen near the end of a project due to complacency and rushing. I could see the same thing being true of passagemaking, especially with landfalls and whatnot.
1. Once the accident happens the race or passage IS over. But we know what you meant...

2. Possibly true. Just possibly. I was in BUILDING construction for 45 years. Each phase has its different challenges: the start is heavy construction with digging and foundations; followed by steel or concrete, ie walls and floors. Once the big stuff is built, the rest is "fitting out" - ducts, pipes, wires, ceiling and wall and floor finishes. These are less prone to serious injury than heavy construction, and building construction is different than bridges, roads, and other civil stuff.

That said, I would surmise that many of us can fu just about anywhere along the route. I've had cruises where the first day was the nightmare. That made the rest of it blissful.
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Old 09-03-2018, 08:51   #72
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

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1. Once the accident happens the race or passage IS over. But we know what you meant...
Is this like when looking for something you lost you always find it in the last place you look?
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Old 09-03-2018, 09:11   #73
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

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I wonder if more accidents happen near the end of passages or races.

In the construction industry, most accidents tend to happen near the end of a project due to complacency and rushing. I could see the same thing being true of passagemaking, especially with landfalls and whatnot.
The MOB accidents I can remember were all mid-passage, when the effects of fatigue were high and the adrenaline of landfall had not yet kicked in. There is also the fact that few people start passages in crappy weather; that happens later.

My experience with construction safety has been the opposite; that the start is dangerous, because good practices may not yet be in place.

My experience with sailing and climbing is that the greatest danger is also at the start, when folks are keyed-up to start. This may be counter to the conventional wisdom that falls happen on the descent, but I'm pretty sure that can't be fended with statistics either, except for climbs where people have pushed themselves beyond the limit of endurance, which is a separate issue. I think it is probably urban legend born of a practical sense that we need to finish the climb.

Fatigue and adrenaline are always risk to safety, because they short cut thought.
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Old 09-03-2018, 09:14   #74
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Mike, it is fun to read that you think of Jim and me as Masters, nice warm, fuzzy feeling; but actually, on this forum alone, as well as in the world, there are sailors of whom I know, that I think THEY are Masters, and far more knowledgeable than Jim and me. Our experience is limited to where we have been, and all our hours have been where the only bad thing that happens is cyclones and winter storms, and both those are much easier to avoid today than when we started out. Anyhow, thanks for the kindly estimation of us, but take a look at El Pinguino, a former professional mariner, for instance, a yachtie with an older boat that he rehabbed, in order to keep what he likes, and he sails in Chile! Or look at Boatman 61, with his sky reading, and his abilities to nurse along a wounded vessel, and I am sure there are many more. The point is, there will always be better sailors than we are, and our job is to do the best we can all the time. No exceptions. Fear is irrelevant: what must be done, needs to be done, right now.

Cheers, guys,

Ann
Thanks for the compliment Ann..
But methinks not 'better'.. just different.
In many ways you guys could probably sail rings round me.. I just have my own style..
And.. there's no such things as 'Just cyclones and winter storms'..
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Old 09-03-2018, 13:54   #75
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Re: Are More Expereinced Sailors Actually Safer? Prove It.

Thinwater. (because I clicked one time on this thread I have continous advise there is a new post... so as I have spare time (rare), I decided to ACT !)

I think we never correspond together on the forum, so I don't know your experience, only that you are writer... and probably looking for a good subject we will suoply the mater... HA HA (this is a joke)... OK be serious ...

The answer is trivial for me. If you are a skipper with 40 years of experience, owner of a 36ft sailboat you care, improve, maintain with your love ... and a 30 years old guy, having recently succesfully obtain the ASA 104 exam, come to you and ask to rent HER as a bareboat for one week ...

DO YOU ACCEPT ???
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