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Old 06-12-2018, 13:32   #1
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An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

http://amp.abc.net.au/article/10584002

Alan Payne’s prediction of fatalities years before the event.

Of course you could argue that Murphy’s Law applies, anything that can go wrong will go wrong IF IT HAPPENS OFTEN ENOUGH. That second part is important because it took 17 years for him to be proven correct.

But this is a naval architect making the prediction based on the evolution of boat design whereas most, if not all, of what I have read on the fateful race to date has focussed on human decision making and equipment failures.

Full disclosure, I have a horse in this race, so to speak. A Swanson 42 was lost competing that uear, thankfully the crew were saved.
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Old 06-12-2018, 13:53   #2
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

IIRC older, heavier boats ran into just as much (or more) trouble as lighter more modern ones.
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Old 06-12-2018, 14:33   #3
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

IIRC the greatest loss of life was from Winston Churchhill, a venerable timber full keel boat.

The distribution of losses was surely influenced by where the boats were located during the worst of t he wx. The slower boats were further north, and many had the chance to bail out before getting into Bass S proper. And one can't eliminate the influence of pure ole luck... whether or not the rogue wave appears where you are, or not.

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Old 06-12-2018, 23:46   #4
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

More bad luck than anything else. One does not expect that sort of weather in that place at that time of the year.
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Old 07-12-2018, 00:31   #5
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Cate View Post
IIRC the greatest loss of life was from Winston Churchhill, a venerable timber full keel boat.

The distribution of losses was surely influenced by where the boats were located during the worst of t he wx. The slower boats were further north, and many had the chance to bail out before getting into Bass S proper. And one can't eliminate the influence of pure ole luck... whether or not the rogue wave appears where you are, or not.

Jim
Hearsay that I believe may be true...

The mast on WC had been replaced - the old one was - and probably still is - on a friend's boat.

New alloy mast fitted... rigging cranked down hard..... boat hit heavy weather... hull not up to handle stresses it was not designed for...

That is what I heard at the time....
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Old 07-12-2018, 00:32   #6
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

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More bad luck than anything else. One does not expect that sort of weather in that place at that time of the year.
Oh yes one does..... maybe not quite that bad....
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Old 07-12-2018, 02:12   #7
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

Imho, it is actually quite common to have a frontal passage for the S to H race. How active it is, well, it varies.

Conservative cruisers wait for a favorable window to cross to Tassie: the racers take what they get. It is why we took our hats off to the guys who temporarily retired to Eden for the worst of it, and then got under way again, conserving boat and crew strength.

Ann
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:46   #8
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

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Imho, it is actually quite common to have a frontal passage for the S to H race. How active it is, well, it varies.

Conservative cruisers wait for a favorable window to cross to Tassie: the racers take what they get. It is why we took our hats off to the guys who temporarily retired to Eden for the worst of it, and then got under way again, conserving boat and crew strength.

Ann


This will be my strategy when I do the race.
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I had resolved on a voyage around the world, and as the wind on the morning of April 24, 1895 was fair, at noon I weighed anchor....
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Old 07-12-2018, 06:02   #9
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

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Originally Posted by Jim Cate View Post
IIRC the greatest loss of life was from Winston Churchhill, a venerable timber full keel boat.

The distribution of losses was surely influenced by where the boats were located during the worst of t he wx. The slower boats were further north, and many had the chance to bail out before getting into Bass S proper. And one can't eliminate the influence of pure ole luck... whether or not the rogue wave appears where you are, or not.

Jim
I suspect that rogue waves are responsible for more wrecks than we think. While minute statistical possibilities, they are deadly certainties over time; and in places of the world where winds commonly oppose currents, that factor is likely the wild card that increases the risk.
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Old 07-12-2018, 11:03   #10
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

Let's be honest - yachts nowadays are not designed for the hard stuff (unless built for Southern Ocean round-the-globe races - a different design parameter entirely, where downwind speed and strength are everything). No raceboat under 70' built to withstand the worst ocean weather would have a chance of winning any normal yacht race; coming second is not what it's all about.

The Colin Archer design evolved as a rescue boat - they put to sea in the worst weather when fishing boats got into trouble, beat out against wind and waves to reach and recover survivors. That is the pedigree of the design. No sailboat built today comes from that sort of pedigree - they would be unaffordable (except for fully sponsored round-the-globe races, where they would come in last, but in comfort) and unnecessary unless you plan to sail out into a Bass Strait hurricane every year.
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Old 07-12-2018, 13:15   #11
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

I suppose my Swanson 42 was not built “today”, being splashed in 1982, but her design is very much influenced by the Colin Archer approach. In the relatively few times I have been in difficult conditions she certainly had been more sure footed than me.

In some ways she was designed to tackle the Sydney Hobart race, in that her predecessors from the same yard were built to win the race. She’s just a cruising evolution of their design principles.
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Old 07-12-2018, 14:52   #12
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

Interesting prediction, had not heard of that before.
The boats that Alan Payne is referring, many of that era race boats would not qualify to meet the minimum stability index set for a S2H now. The crew is the ballast on an IOR boat. My old boat was designed specifically for the 1979 Admirals Cup (2ton class) and it only just met the minimum.
The Swanson 42 was not designed as a race boat, it is a stable sea kindly vessel (my sister/brother in-law had one for many years).
The disastorous events of 1998 S2H changed many things in how the race is run, and how the boats and crew are prepared.
Crew and boats need to qualify prior to acceptance in the race, rigourous safety inspections (arranged and spot checks), survival at sea training, detailed pre-race weather breifing, pre race storm sail checks, during the race just prior to entering Bass Strait the skipper has to confirm that both crew and vessel are in good condition and are aware of the conditions. It can be a very dangerous stretch of water and can change state very quickly.
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Old 07-12-2018, 17:16   #13
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

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Originally Posted by MoorOrLess View Post
...

The Swanson 42 was not designed as a race boat, it is a stable sea kindly vessel (my sister/brother in-law had one for many years).
....
Like I said, is a cruising evolution of the original Swanson designs, which were racing boats. Their underwater profiles are unmistakably similar, there was even a racing 42 timber hull for sale at one point, which I guess might have served as the original for the hull mold. It had a list of Sydney/Hobart races under its belt and looked exactly like someone had bought my boat and taken the deck house off. So although no racer, the boat is not that far removed.

I seem to remember reading somewhere that the brothers were fed up with the changing racing rules and got out of racing altogether.
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Old 07-12-2018, 20:17   #14
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

The Swanson 42 has the appearance of a rugged and powerful yacht but nowhere can I find a decent underwater profile or picture. Not sailboatdata, not bluewaterboats, and the 'for sale' boats don't show the below-water hull, certainly not the aft part where it all can go wrong. Got any profile drawings or shots? They sound like a legend in Oz.
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Old 08-12-2018, 03:53   #15
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Re: An interesting prediction about the Sydney to Hobart race.

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I confess, I have no real idea what makes a good hull form.

Dad does, he’s a naval architect and worked under Alan Payne at Cockatoo Dockyards in Sydney in, maybe, the late 50s? He is, reluctantly, accepting of the Swanson hull, which is the equivalent of wild praise from him.

I can say that the Swanson hulls all look the same to me below the waterline. Maybe to an expert there are significant differences, but to this lay-person, indistinguishable.

I can also say they look utterly different, below the waterline, to any other boat I see on the slips around here. With the exception of one or two Joe Adam’s designs.

I don’t know what makes them the way they are. All I know is that when I asked about them here on CF, maybe 8 years ago, I got pretty positive responses all round, and so far, nothing about the boat’s behaviour has betrayed those endorsements.
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