50% CHANCE BIRD FLU WILL GO HUMAN TO HUMAN

[CaptainK]

Renowned Bird Flu Expert Warns: Be Prepared!!

March 14, 2006 — Robert G. Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?

There are "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human." Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited with being the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.

Webster and his team of scientists are working to find a way to beat the virus if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the Flu Hunter.

Right now, H5N1, a type of avian influenza virus, has confined itself to birds. It can be transmitted from bird to human but only by direct contact with the droppings and excretions of infected birds.

But viruses mutate, and the big fear among the world's scientists is that the bird flu virus will join the human flu virus, change its genetic code and emerge as a new and deadly flu that can spread through the air from human to human.

If the virus does mutate, it does not necessarily mean it will be as deadly to people as it is to birds. But experts such as Webster say they must prepare for the worst.

"I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," said Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak.



Frightening Warning

"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."

Most scientists won't put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans, even though they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.

Researcher Dr. Anne Moscona at New York Weill Cornell Medical Center said that a human form may not mutate this year or next — or ever — but it would be foolish to ignore the dire consequences if it did.

"If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans, we could then have a spread like wildfire across the globe," Moscona said.

No one knows how long or how many mutation changes it would take for bird flu to become a direct threat to humans.

"It may not do it. There may just be too many changes. The virus may not be able to be a human virus," Moscona said.

But that hasn't stopped Moscona from searching for new types of anti-viral treatments that both prevent and slow the spread of bird flu.

"I don't think that once we have human-to-human transmission, it's going to be possible to contain it," she said.

That is why nearly every viral scientist in America, perhaps the world, is waiting and watching the avian flu virus to see if it remains just a threat to birds or changes its genetic code and becomes a deadly threat to humans as well.

[otgadventures]

Greetings board.

I always doubt expert predictions that include 50%, when in truth EVERYTHING in life is a 50% chance. It either IS or it ISN'T, and in binary terms, with both outcomes possible, you have a 50% chance of dying tomorrow. Either you do or you don't.

The bird flue epidemic scare is getting way more press than it deserves, and as the skeptic I am, I wonder what the real issues are that are being masked by this smoke.

More people die choking on sandwich toothpicks than the bird flu has killed. Where are the frightmongers on the dangers of club sandwiches?

Bob

No quotation under my name as yet, still thinking of a good one.
me. 2006

[ssullivan]

Definitely... I've said it before on these bird flu posts... and I'll say it again: Just get on your boat and ride it out. Everyone on this board is in a very unique and very protected class of people. No pandemic is can get you on a boat if you are out.

I'm still not sure why so many people live in such fear. Like the last poster says... more people die from club sandwiches. This type of sensationalist stuff is mostly here to distract you from real problems, like lack of healthcare, wars, inflation, etc... so don't worry about it.

[Pblais]

You can read stuff by Dr Webster on his web site and it does not sound like the above what so ever. The story above is pretty trashy and does not reflect what Dr Webster has posted on his own site. It's bogus.

Sorry CaptainK this is not worth reading. If you want to cut and paste news to the forum that you didn't write yourself it might be better to at least post the source too.

[BC Mike]

As it applies to boating.
If you are going in to the protest room and you are 100% sure you are in the right, your odds are about 50 / 50.
If you are going in to the protest room and you are 100% sure you are in the wrong, your odds are about 50 / 50.
The news has gone from reporting the news, to interpreting it for us and providing their own political opinion with the manner in which they report it. These are bad things according to the news.
Canada lowered the Federal sales tax from 7 to 6% on nearly all goods and services. The US sentenced a 911 baddy to life in jail. I would prefer they just report what happened and allow me to make my own decision.
When it comes to dying next year, we use the numbers for the odds of the event happening, which for someone in their twenties is about 1 in 1000.
Michael

[Lynx]

Go ahead and make me dead. Really - 15000 traffic deaths every year. The cause - not wearing seat belts.
The 6th largest cause of death is precription medication.

CaptionK - What are you doing to change that. What is your solution?

[henryv]

Evidently bird flue struck in a Florida trailor park

[markpj23]

Those plastic Flamingos make perfect liveaboard pets....!!

Probably better than those lazy plastic owls when it comes to keeping poop-birds off yer rigging too...

[hellosailor]

I think the point about the bird flu (aside from the Nightly Nooze trying to sell commercials) is that flu pandemics are NORMAL and we're about due for another one. Many folks have forgotten, the Spanish Flu is actually what ended World War I. The death tolls from it were incredible, and another virulent strain could probably cause more deaths today simply because people travel so much more that it could spreaed like lightning.
Better to at least get "the public" concerned rather than their usual "comfortably numb", as Pink Floyd called it. Civil defense/preparedness isn't sexy, so getting any concern that will get it any funding, is a difficult thing. Getting interest without panic, is a hard thin line.

Epidemics are quickly forgotten by the next generation, but my grandfather spent days--literally--trying to find my uncle when he was a boy, stricken by Polio during that epidemic in the US. The ambulance literally backed up to their front door, slapped a QUARANTINE sticker on it, took my uncle away, and no one was told anything more about it. And that was typical--not the exception. Here, in the US, where everyone has such wonderfully short memories.

[CaptainK]

Lnyx once whispered in the wind
CaptionK - What are you doing to change that. What's your solution?

Absolutely nothing, Lynx.

All I'm going to do. Is sit back and watch the people panic & kill each other off. And let the virus finish the rest off.

[CaptainK]

To answer Paul Blais.

I'm not claiming credit for the article. When I posted this article.

I simply wasn't putting the credits on the articles at that time. And just posted the article.

[Lynx]

CaptainK - I just trying to make a point that a lot of people complain and do nothing about it and sometimes about stuff that is trivial. Although this is not entirely the case with this thread.

In the past, it has been found that the people who do not get sick are healthy and in good/great mental mood (not drug related).

So - stay healthy and go cruising more often.

[CaptainK]

I totally agree with you there, Lynx!!

Go sailing. And sail til there's no tomorrow. That's pretty much my main objective!!

[Islandmike]

We wont be ready to leave until late next summer or early fall, I only hope it is soon enough.

[CaptainK]

Mike & Paula.

Where bouts are you planning to sail off to generally? I know you're in CT. But is it only going to be the Bahamas & Carribean?

Or do you have other places in store to travel too?