Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

[opusnz]

Paul, I am interested in your statement that the Iridium positions can be out +/- 2200 miles. Do you have link to this?

Cheers and thanks, another Paul

[Paul Elliott]

This is good information. I am familiar with doppler shift measurements, but did not know that Iridium made these as a matter of course. So, the error will be better than the +/-2,200 mile number I mentioned, but it is still apparently fairly bad. Especially, as you point out, in the east/west direction.

[Paul Elliott]

Originally Posted by opusnz

Paul, I am interested in your statement that the Iridium positions can be out +/- 2200 miles. Do you have link to this?

Cheers and thanks, another Paul

I was just looking at the footprint (http://www.deetc.isel.ipl.pt/sistema...RIDIUM%203.pdf). I was not aware that they regularly used the doppler-shift information, which obviously improves the accuracy.

[opusnz]

Thanks. I wasn't aware that they could get positions at all from Iridium until they said they were using the positions from the text Iridium messages. Since it is really a communications network and not a navigation network, I searched on the net to see how they did it. It took me less than 5 minutes to figure out that it is not very good.

Maybe I am being too cranky but it is amazing to me that nobody at RCC NZ did the same. You would think professional curiosity would be enough.

Sometimes I think people watch too much TV. What they do on a detective show on TV is not the real world, whether it is trying to triangulate a cell or sat phone position or see the surface of the earth from a satellite.

[boatman61]

Oh... this is getting Oh so tempting... but... I will behave...

[Friend of Nina]

I have 3 family on board and still don't agree with you. Signals are spotty, able to get lat/long from Iridium but refused to hand over text. So RCC did the best with info they had. Remember it took 6 days to get text and even then State Dept had to make an official request.

Would it have changed things? Of course! But RCC was quick to change model when they finally got it.

Cherie

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

Look how disparate signals are! Cherie

Attachment 65083

Far fetched it may sound, But your last reported position of the Nina,

Puts it bang smack in the middle of the EAST Bound ocean currents,

I would have to hazzard a guess and say that the Nina is well on her way to South America,

Thats if she didnt get cleaned up on the islands at the top of NZ, But you would definately have wreckage if she went up on any rocks,

Follow those currents,

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Mr B

Far fetched it may sound, But your last reported position of the Nina,

Puts it bang smack in the middle of the EAST Bound ocean currents,

I would have to hazzard a guess and say that the Nina is well on her way to South America,

Thats if she didnt get cleaned up on the islands at the top of NZ, But you would definately have wreckage if she went up on any rocks,

Follow those currents,

I hear what you say but if this is the case, Nina is drifting well towards South America without propulsion, without steerage and very very low on water & food.

In essence, in dire straights, with many crew, well over due and no chance of coming ashore in either Oz or NZ. The skipper is reportedly a well respected seaman and would understand their chances of survival would decrease every day as they drifted further into the South Pacific. Under these circumstances, it would be very unusual not to declare an emergency and activate their EPRIB.

It saddens me to say this but I believe their chances of still being saved are now very low, almost non-existent. I understand that it is possible to survive in the described circumstances but I just can't see them not using an EPRIB by this stage.

So that leaves only three possible outcomes; already lost (without any warning) with all hands or faulty EPRIB or stoic skipper and crew refusing to declare an emergency until death imminent.

Given the known weather and the passage of time, the odds well and truly lie with the vessel and crew being no longer with us yet part of me always hopes for a miracle.

[la vida nueva]

Actually, they did a very sophisticated current analysis. None of those results puts the Nina in the South Pacific.

As to survivability, Glennie survived with three other sailors for 119 days on the Rose Noelle.

As to epirbs, not one of the family has reported them checking the epirb prior to departure. Older epirbs fail especially since they are usually placed near the hatch and get doused once in awhile. This is an older epirb.

The question I ask is this: If they are alive, and there is not a single bit of evidence to say they are not alive, then what would they want the family and our community to do? I think the answer is to ask for donation, to be active in encouraging assistance by authorities and by remaining positive.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by opusnz

(...) So for whatever reason, they chose to use a crappy Iridium position rather than the text position from Evi who was an experienced sailor, a meticulous and careful navigator and a math professor. Only her text position agreed with the weather maps, by the way. They finally shifted their searches to Evi's text position on July 1 after learning "new information" from myself and others. Seems like a co-incidence to me. All their prior drift modelling was based on an incorrect position 220 miles to the east and I and others have the emails from them to prove it. (...)

Do you say they had the more accurate positions from text but they resolved to use the less reliable position estimations from Iridium?

Because you also say they shifted their search when they learned new information.

Did NZ SAR have the position information from the text messages at the point when they set out with their search?

This would be most unusual for a trained and experienced personnel to use the less accurate method.

Do you say this is the case?

barnakiel

[Mr B]

Here's the rest of those currents,

[Friend of Nina]

Please no links that are not approved by CF.

They have been great monitoring my thread and glad they are watching over me!

Cherie

[la vida nueva]

I will abide by the rules, I guess I should have read them.

Best of luck to all of you, and especially to those who are stuck on a boat in the middle of the Pacific.

[s/v Jedi]

I have lost track of who is who in this thread. I see one Uncle Tim who is always asking for money for video productions or rescues of missing boats, a private Texas rescue organization which collects donations but seems on the brink of bankruptcy with thefts of money and materials as the mentioned cause of the problems, $20k/day costs for rescue with a potential area to be searched that will take many hundreds of days etc.

My thoughts are with the crew members of the Niña, especially those who we spent about 6 months as neighbors with and I realize that what I am doing is coming to terms with the events and thinking back of the good times we had together. I am with thise who believe that they will save themselves if at all possible from this point on.
Here's one of those happy moments during a little "Jedi party"

[opusnz]

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

I have 3 family on board and still don't agree with you. Signals are spotty, able to get lat/long from Iridium but refused to hand over text. So RCC did the best with info they had. Remember it took 6 days to get text and even then State Dept had to make an official request.

Would it have changed things? Of course! But RCC was quick to change model when they finally got it.

Cherie

Cherie, all I am saying is that they discounted Evi's position given in her text message and took the inaccurate Iridium position instead. They should have known not to do this and known not to do this long before the missing text became available. You are absolutely right about the later info coming from Iridium regarding the missing text message being important. It was another vital clue to the puzzle. RCC NZ should have had access to all the info and Iridium should have released it but for RCC NZ to say they did nothing wrong is I feel a mistake.

I have probably made a mistake commenting the way I have on a public forum but I was becoming more and more frustrated with some of the inaccurate press and the way a story can get either manipulated or spun sideways. Now is not the time or the place however and I don't want to side-track your efforts. My sincere apologies and best of luck with your search and best of luck to the crew of the Nina.