I find the discussion about the boat heading to Oz under bare poles, hove to, or under a jury rig interesting, but unlikely. Though the lows crossing the Tasman have a circular rotation and would allow periods of westerly movement down wind
, but the prevailing winds at these lattitudes are west to east, so going west is a challenge even with an intact rig. Bare poles and jury rigs are basically impossible to take to windward. Combine this with the current
and the net movement will be to the east. If they are not on some deserted coast in New Zealand
by now, I would think the best place to search would be East of NZ. I would find it hard to believe that any experienced skipper
would try to go to a net windward with anything but an intact rig. Maybe I'm unusually conservative, but if it was me I would have attempted to return to the closest downwind port to effect repairs
if my rig was not intact. NZ was closer, downwind, and down current
. The fact that it was upwind when they were last heard from was only a temporary condition at best. If they are in a raft or completely adrift their net movement would be east and they should have hit or passed NZ by now. If their rig is intact they should have been in Oz by now. Good luck with your search and I hope they are found soon.