Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 3 votes, 5.00 average. Display Modes
Old 25-07-2013, 18:33   #691
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Eastern Australia
Boat: Catana 40 1988
Posts: 34
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Currents are less important than wind direction and wave direction even on a boat that is bare poled. I can assure you that NINA would easily make 2 knots downwind unless hove-to ..... and then it would make a knot or so. If it starts surfing, even more.
__________________

__________________
venturing seagull is offline  
Old 25-07-2013, 19:27   #692
Senior Cruiser
 
Captain Bill's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: On the boat
Boat: Endeavourcat Sailcat 44
Posts: 2,313
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

I find the discussion about the boat heading to Oz under bare poles, hove to, or under a jury rig interesting, but unlikely. Though the lows crossing the Tasman have a circular rotation and would allow periods of westerly movement down wind, but the prevailing winds at these lattitudes are west to east, so going west is a challenge even with an intact rig. Bare poles and jury rigs are basically impossible to take to windward. Combine this with the current and the net movement will be to the east. If they are not on some deserted coast in New Zealand by now, I would think the best place to search would be East of NZ. I would find it hard to believe that any experienced skipper would try to go to a net windward with anything but an intact rig. Maybe I'm unusually conservative, but if it was me I would have attempted to return to the closest downwind port to effect repairs if my rig was not intact. NZ was closer, downwind, and down current. The fact that it was upwind when they were last heard from was only a temporary condition at best. If they are in a raft or completely adrift their net movement would be east and they should have hit or passed NZ by now. If their rig is intact they should have been in Oz by now. Good luck with your search and I hope they are found soon.
__________________

__________________
Captain Bill is offline  
Old 25-07-2013, 19:43   #693
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Eastern Australia
Boat: Catana 40 1988
Posts: 34
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

I don't think anyone is saying that they would be under bare poles for ever. We only know that the storm sails were shredded. This leaves a number of other sails available for sailing if the conditions were right.

As for the prevailing winds ..... at the time of the last message, the actual winds were from the SE ..... enabling Nina to move to the N-NW .... and away from the search areas indicated in the pictures.
__________________
venturing seagull is offline  
Old 25-07-2013, 19:55   #694
Registered User

Join Date: May 2010
Location: New Plymouth, NZ
Boat: Steel Swain 36 Cutter
Posts: 51
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

The prevailing winds in June in the Tasman can be anywhere from SW to SE. The further north you go, the more likely they will be SE but really you need to be ready for anything.

http://www.offshoreblue.com/assets/r...06sppc1998.zip

If I remember right, the winds after the storm were almost nothing for days as a high came in...later, where they should have been located the winds eventually switched to the SE.
__________________
opusnz is offline  
Old 25-07-2013, 20:53   #695
Senior Cruiser
 
Captain Bill's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: On the boat
Boat: Endeavourcat Sailcat 44
Posts: 2,313
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Quote:
Originally Posted by venturing seagull View Post
I don't think anyone is saying that they would be under bare poles for ever. We only know that the storm sails were shredded. This leaves a number of other sails available for sailing if the conditions were right.

As for the prevailing winds ..... at the time of the last message, the actual winds were from the SE ..... enabling Nina to move to the N-NW .... and away from the search areas indicated in the pictures.
The winds are any particular time are irrelavent to the net movement. The wind would change direction as soon as the center of the low moved off. The net movement over a long period only depends on prevailing wind and current. If they had an intact usable rig of any sort they would have been in OZ by now, even if they only averaged one knot of VMG. It seems to me that it taking so long to get there indicates that the rig is not likely to be intact. If it's not they would only be able to make a net movement downwind and down current. Clearly the captain was not a newby and would have understood that the Tasman in winter was no place to try to cross without adequate storm sails. NZ was much closer and it seems to me that he would have attempted to return there and deal with replacing his storm sails and repairing any other damage he might have suffered in the storm. My point is that if he's not in either place it's likely that they either have a limited ability to control the boat or they are in the raft. In either case they are going to be east of their last position. East is either NZ or SA. My understanding of NZ's west coast is that there are large uninhabited areas where they may have come ashore. I know that the coast was searched early on, but that doesn't mean they were not missed. If the boat came ashore intact soon after they disappeared there might have been any recognizable wreakage left after a couple of weeks in the surf. If they missed NZ then they are on a very long drift towards South America. The issue is they are going to run into the humboldt current which will drift them north and possibly into tradewinds again where they would be pushed back west, but drifting, it's a long way to the humboldt.

If it was my family and I had limited resources I would concentrate my effeort to the east.
__________________
Captain Bill is offline  
Old 26-07-2013, 08:44   #696
Registered User
 
Friend of Nina's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 211
State Dept Update. NGA still analyzing data and hope to hear within a week. Conference call now has a USCG Capt experienced in search and rescue to go over all data from RCCNZ to see if any possibility of something being missed.

Corker's office said so many agencies and people involved and list grows daily.

If I'm not correct, Schooner Nina will have the largest amount of lives 'lost at sea' on a non commercial vessel.

Cherie
__________________
Friend of Nina is offline  
Old 26-07-2013, 14:38   #697
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Eastern Australia
Boat: Catana 40 1988
Posts: 34
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

The yacht Scottish Bonnet made it across to New South Wales alone in 164 days .... a different time of year, but it it shows it is possible.
Sail-World.com : Plucky little yacht Scotch Bonnet - made it alone
__________________
venturing seagull is offline  
Old 26-07-2013, 15:24   #698
Registered User

Join Date: May 2010
Location: New Plymouth, NZ
Boat: Steel Swain 36 Cutter
Posts: 51
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Windigo as well....she was abandoned between NZ and Tonga. It was only 3 months to Coff's Harbour.

The yacht stripped bare - ABC Coffs Coast - Australian Broadcasting Corporation
__________________
opusnz is offline  
Old 26-07-2013, 16:51   #699
Senior Cruiser
 
Captain Bill's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: On the boat
Boat: Endeavourcat Sailcat 44
Posts: 2,313
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

These two examples took place in the summer and further north. Unlike the crew of the Nina I have no skin in this game. I recommend that the families contact one of the NZ universities Marine Science departments and ask one of the oceanographers where they would estimate a drifting object would be located given where the Nina was last reported. Hopefully they'll have better current and wind data than is found on pilot charts.
__________________
Captain Bill is offline  
Old 26-07-2013, 19:29   #700
Registered User

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Melbourne Australia
Boat: Paper Tiger 14 foot, Gemini 105MC 34 foot Catamaran Hull no 825
Posts: 1,616
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Where the Indigo was abandoned, In the middle of the Coral sea,

The indigo could have gone east or west, as it was on the convergence of the two currents,
It went west ending up at Coffs harbour, it could have ended up near Bundaberg as well. as the western current splits and runs north and south along the coast,

If the Indigo had picked up the east current, It would have gone to South America,
__________________
Mr B is offline  
Old 28-07-2013, 17:30   #701
Registered User
 
Sissy w's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5
Thanks Ms.cate

Aunt sissy
__________________
Sissy w is offline  
Old 28-07-2013, 17:31   #702
Registered User
 
Sissy w's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5
Thanks salty

Aunt sissy
__________________
Sissy w is offline  
Old 28-07-2013, 17:47   #703
Registered User
 
Sissy w's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5
Thanks capt bill for your insight
__________________
Sissy w is offline  
Old 02-08-2013, 12:42   #704
Registered User
 
Friend of Nina's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 211
Sorry for so few updates but here it something new!



Click image for larger version

Name:	image-4024363673.jpg
Views:	251
Size:	264.6 KB
ID:	65007
__________________
Friend of Nina is offline  
Old 02-08-2013, 13:41   #705
Marine Service Provider

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: St Augustine, FL
Boat: Woods Vardo 34 Cat
Posts: 2,827
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

So the plan it to try and "blame" iridium?
__________________

__________________
Check out my MoJo: Facebook.com/mojomarine1
Boatguy30 is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Merged Threads: HMS Bounty Mark1977 Cruising News & Events 571 01-08-2013 14:08
Stripped Threads on Mast voxxmd Deck hardware: Rigging, Sails & Hoisting 51 25-04-2013 08:37
Merged Threads: Cruising Madeira brine Atlantic & the Caribbean 14 19-12-2012 03:23
OpenCPN Beta Version 3.1.814 Released bdbcat OpenCPN 185 14-09-2012 08:43
Top 10 Cat Manufacturers Sand crab Multihull Sailboats 46 12-09-2012 00:49



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:25.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.