Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 3 votes, 5.00 average. Display Modes
Old 23-07-2013, 17:42   #661
Certifiable Refitter/Senior Wannbe
 
Wotname's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: South of 43 S, Australia
Boat: Van DeStat Super Dogger 31'
Posts: 7,331
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Friend of Nina View Post
........ Then the winds turned more NE/E. If the winds affected their position more than the current then they could have been blown north and then east out towards the South Pacific. .........

Cherie
This doesn't seem right, is there a typo here or have I taken something out of context?
__________________

__________________
All men dream: but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find it was vanity: but the dreamers of the day are dangereous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible. T.E. Lawrence
Wotname is offline  
Old 23-07-2013, 17:51   #662
Registered User
 
Friend of Nina's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 211
It may have been a typo. But several think would head ENE.
Just the passer of information that find this interesting.

Cherie
__________________

__________________
Friend of Nina is offline  
Old 23-07-2013, 17:58   #663
Senior Cruiser
 
Jim Cate's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: May 2008
Location: cruising SW Pacific
Boat: Jon Sayer 1-off 46 ft fract rig sloop strip plank in W Red Cedar
Posts: 11,447
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Friend of Nina View Post
It may have been a typo. But several think would head ENE.
Just the passer of information that find this interesting.

Cherie
I think that the point that Geoff (Wotname) is making is that NE/E winds would blow the boat to the SW/W, not in the direction quoted.

Cheers,

Jim
__________________
Jim and Ann s/v Insatiable II , lying Port Cygnet, Tasmania once again
Jim Cate is online now  
Old 23-07-2013, 18:03   #664
Certifiable Refitter/Senior Wannbe
 
Wotname's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: South of 43 S, Australia
Boat: Van DeStat Super Dogger 31'
Posts: 7,331
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Or that the winds were SW/W - either one or the other but no disabled boat is going to drift NE/E with a NE/E wind.
__________________
All men dream: but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find it was vanity: but the dreamers of the day are dangereous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible. T.E. Lawrence
Wotname is offline  
Old 23-07-2013, 18:57   #665
Registered User

Join Date: May 2010
Location: New Plymouth, NZ
Boat: Steel Swain 36 Cutter
Posts: 51
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Evi on Nina said they were going 310 deg at 3.5 knots to 4 knots on Jun 4. This is consistent with being hove to or later running downwind with the shredded sails in a vigorous southerly or southeast wind. Winds go clockwise around the low. The said they were at 165E and the low should have been east of them at 168E by that time. It all fits and is consistent with Evi's/Nina's reported weather.

The low was relatively small but very intense and fast moving. A few days after the storm, the maps show that the winds were very light for many days as a high built over the Tasman. Eventually the winds filled in to a SE trade which should have pushed them west or northwest. Despite what some have said, I can't see how there is any way Nina could have been pushed east of NZ.
__________________
opusnz is offline  
Old 23-07-2013, 19:16   #666
Senior Cruiser
 
Jim Cate's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: May 2008
Location: cruising SW Pacific
Boat: Jon Sayer 1-off 46 ft fract rig sloop strip plank in W Red Cedar
Posts: 11,447
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Quote:
Originally Posted by opusnz View Post
Evi on Nina said they were going 310 deg at 3.5 knots to 4 knots on Jun 4. This is consistent with being hove to or later running downwind with the shredded sails in a vigorous southerly or southeast wind. Winds go clockwise around the low. The said they were at 165E and the low should have been east of them at 168E by that time. It all fits and is consistent with Evi's/Nina's reported weather.

The low was relatively small but very intense and fast moving. A few days after the storm, the maps show that the winds were very light for many days as a high built over the Tasman. Eventually the winds filled in to a SE trade which should have pushed them west or northwest. Despite what some have said, I can't see how there is any way Nina could have been pushed east of NZ.
Agreed. The only way to have been consistently pushed eastward would be to have gotten far enough south to get into the westerlies, and then they would have fetched up on the west coast of NZed.

Still hoping...

Jim
__________________
Jim and Ann s/v Insatiable II , lying Port Cygnet, Tasmania once again
Jim Cate is online now  
Old 23-07-2013, 20:01   #667
Registered User

Join Date: May 2010
Location: New Plymouth, NZ
Boat: Steel Swain 36 Cutter
Posts: 51
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Yes, and the only way she would have gotten that far south to pick up any west or south west winds would have been if there were a lot of northerly winds for many days first....it never happened.
__________________
opusnz is offline  
Old 23-07-2013, 20:18   #668
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 7
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Sorry Guys, that was confusing, and my fault.
I initially wrote that referring to the direction that the winds would have blown the boat. So you are correct, we would be talking about SW/W winds.

And just to clarify, judging by the playback from Jun 3 to Jun 6, after the eye of the low passed over their assumed location the winds would have been S or slightly SE. (Pushing them in a North/North West direction)
If they made it as far north as Norfolk Island over the next 3 days then the winds there had shifted W/SW in that area by then. If it took them longer to get that far north, two fronts were colliding in that area, with winds that could have taken them in almost any direction. Of course the current would have been a factor also.
Anyone know which direction it flows around Norfolk Island and the north tip of New Zealand?

Keep in mind that all of this assumes that they had no sails and no engine. And is in no way an expert opinion. It's simply an unbiased observation. I encourage others to also take a look at the weather playback and see if you notice anything that may help. I believe this should link you to the playback of the weather in that area between Jun 3 to Jun 9:
WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground
__________________
tboodro is offline  
Old 23-07-2013, 20:40   #669
Certifiable Refitter/Senior Wannbe
 
Wotname's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: South of 43 S, Australia
Boat: Van DeStat Super Dogger 31'
Posts: 7,331
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Thanks for clearing this up
__________________
All men dream: but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find it was vanity: but the dreamers of the day are dangereous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible. T.E. Lawrence
Wotname is offline  
Old 23-07-2013, 20:54   #670
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 7
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Very welcome.

It looks like there are regular commercial flights over that area by airlines like Air Vanuatu and Air Pacific Limited. Too bad there wasn't some way to tap into all of those eyes passing over that area everyday.
__________________
tboodro is offline  
Old 24-07-2013, 03:58   #671
Registered User
 
Friend of Nina's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 211
Todd Boudreaux Sibel I saw that there was some confusion on the forum where you posted what I said. I tried to post a follow-up, but have not been approved yet. If you'd like, you can post the following from me: Sorry Guys, that was confusing, and my fault. I initially wrote that referring to the direction that the winds would have blown the boat. So you are correct, we would be talking about SW/W winds. And just to clarify, judging by the playback from Jun 3 to Jun 6, after the eye of the low passed over their assumed location the winds would have been S or slightly SE. (Pushing them in a North/North West direction) If they made it as far north as Norfolk Island over the next 3 days then the winds there had shifted W/SW in that area by then. If it took them longer to get that far north, two fronts were colliding in that area, with winds that could have taken them in almost any direction. Of course the current would have been a factor also. Anyone know which direction it flows around Norfolk Island and the north tip of New Zealand? Keep in mind that all of this assumes that they had no sails and no engine. And is in no way an expert opinion. It's simply an unbiased observation. I'd encourage others to also take a look at the weather playback and see if you notice anything that may help. I believe this should link you to the playback of the weather in that area between Jun 3 to Jun 9: http://wxug.us/16m52
__________________
Friend of Nina is offline  
Old 24-07-2013, 05:25   #672
Registered User
 
Friend of Nina's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 211
David Keller Hello, I'm good friends with Kyle & his family. I've been in contact with www.tomnod.com to try to get a large crowdsource viewing going. I know this is a broad question, but where do you think the most important place to be looking right now would be. They would be getting a sat image from now to the future, not the past. Any thoughts? Thank you. -David
__________________
Friend of Nina is offline  
Old 24-07-2013, 13:16   #673
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 7
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

I think that the text is very important. If they made it though the Jun 3rd storm and apparently weren't injured or worried, that is promising. If they had no sails, engine or navigation they may have chosen a heading of 310 knowing that they would hit something. Australia. Maybe Norfolk Island if the wind shifted.

From there, judging by the weather over the next 3 weeks, they should have been blown up to Norfolk Island. Depending on what days they reached that area (around Jun 20), winds could have blown them North/North East of the island. Or they could have also blown them East/South East across the north east part of New Zealand.

RCCNZ has taken some flack for its decisions. But I think that their first search in the waters N/NE of New Zealand was at the right time and in the right area to have found them had they drifted south and east of Norfolk Island.

Does the fact that they didn't find anything there mean they could be further north towards Fiji?

You would think that something would have come up in the searches right? Either washed up on the beach or just floating around. Unless they're still in tact and a drift outside of the search areas.
__________________
tboodro is offline  
Old 24-07-2013, 13:20   #674
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 7
Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Air Canada Flight Finds Missing Yacht | Gadling.com
__________________
tboodro is offline  
Old 24-07-2013, 13:32   #675
Registered User
 
Friend of Nina's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 211
Boy I wish I would wake up to Nina being found like him!

Very vexing for me and I'm sure for the searchers for locating Nina!!!

Cherie
__________________

__________________
Friend of Nina is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Merged Threads: HMS Bounty Mark1977 Cruising News & Events 571 01-08-2013 14:08
Stripped Threads on Mast voxxmd Deck hardware: Rigging, Sails & Hoisting 51 25-04-2013 08:37
Merged Threads: Cruising Madeira brine Atlantic & the Caribbean 14 19-12-2012 03:23
OpenCPN Beta Version 3.1.814 Released bdbcat OpenCPN 185 14-09-2012 08:43
Top 10 Cat Manufacturers Sand crab Multihull Sailboats 46 12-09-2012 00:49



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 15:33.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.