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Old 04-07-2013, 11:23   #331
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

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My questions, Evi seemed I thought comfortable with no sails and said new update 6pm. Appears June 4, it was messy but didn't put out a mayday or pan pan.

Wouldn't they have other sails? Would they still have bare poles if rigging down?

If caught in weather with no sails, does the boat bob or not. Would waves overcome bilge pumps. But I thought wood boats don't sink.

Are sailboats like airplanes whereas sometimes releasing controls in a plane it rights itself?

Thanks, Cherie
Yes, they would have other sails, the storm sails are only for storms, I've had occasion to use them 2 or 3 times in 120K miles. For extremely strong winds, no sails (bare poles) is a better option (my opinion) if there is no land within miles.

Yes, the boat would naturally run off downwind with no sails, this is especially true of schooners because the "drag" of the keel is very far back.

Wood boats unfortunately do sink, because of the weight of the keel.

Waves would not normally enter the boat, and the bilge pumps can usually keep up with quite a bit of water incursion
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Old 04-07-2013, 11:26   #332
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Of course, even if there were an SSB aboard, it is a fairly fragile system.... Typically using part of the rig for an antenna. If the rig were damaged, it is entirely possible it might not have worked anyway.

Thoughts and prayers are with the ship, her crew, and the many loved ones waiting on the shore.
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Old 04-07-2013, 11:47   #333
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

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I'm an airline pilot and in our simulator training we are immersed in multiple emergencies.
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If caught in weather with no sails, does the boat bob or not. Would waves overcome bilge pumps. But I thought wood boats don't sink.
Hi Cherie,

I know many other posters have an idea that its best to be very optimistic to friends and relatives... I know not why, and what happens when wreckage is found? Do they say: "Well, of COURSE, but I didnt want to tell you so!"?

And in this thread the families have been very well spoken of and we are all being supportive. However, as you are a professional then you can use your own training and experience to plot scenarios in reality.

In an air crash the stability of the survivors is, as you allude to, vital. Lets have a look at a few factors.
If Nina is still afloat it is in a heavily damaged situation.
New Zealand is in the middle of winter and its freezing cold.
The water temperature is so low that exposure of more than a few hours will result in hypothermia.
A boat bobbing about will be wet, inside and out.

Remember some of the miraculous air disasters where the climate has played a destructive factor, I'm thinking of those mountain top crashes. Injured and shocked survivors succumb quickly, and the few that do survive get out of the crash zone environment quickly.

Some folks have mentioned some very long survival at sea stories... but almost without exception they are wrecks in the tropics, not in the high latitudes in the middle of winter. Of course Shackletons is one of the most famous and in much colder waters but the boat was fully prepared: "The strongest of the tiny 20-foot (6.1 m) lifeboats was chosen for the trip.[94] Ship's carpenter Harry McNish made various improvements, including raising the sides, strengthening the keel, building a makeshift deck of wood and canvas, and sealing the work with oil paint and seal blood."

So Ninas crew would have had to endure less extreme temperatures, but for twice the time of Shackletons.

Onto the point about the bobbing boat. If Nina was not destroyed in the earlier storm, and was afloat afterwards then yes there's lots of things they could do to make it more survivable. However Masts and sails would not have been able to be jury rigged or I think the boat would have been spotted.
A hull, adrift, but with uninjured survivors could, with tools aboard, be made as water tight as the damage allows... but one would have to think that wouldn't mean dry. And at the water and air temps the crew would need to be dry.

Provisions: All long range cruising boats have a pretty big stockpile of food on board and can in emergency be cooking for a month or more, no worries. However: The long passages and few good supermarkets in the Pacific eat up reserves and New Zealand takes all non preserved food off boats on arrival, and so does Australia. So boats doing this run wouldn't have the same amount of food on board as those cruising long distances in other oceans (say the Med or the USA/Bahamas/Caribbean).

The Kiwis and Aussies are so draconian about food and wine that anything bought is just a waste of money because the Quarantine people are just going to feast on your wallet!

Drawing a few quick conclusions: with the long time, low air and water temperatures, little food and no sails or rig the difficulties are stacked up.

However, as you know by similar emergencies in your own field, this doesn't mean that feats of endurance can not be possible.


Mark
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Old 04-07-2013, 13:14   #334
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

There's nothing wrong with keeping hope alive; David is my cousin (the twins are amazing people) he knows what to do. Nina always makes it back to port.
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Old 04-07-2013, 13:29   #335
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

My thought is that if the New Zealand authorities think there's a chance, there's a chance....I accept that it's slim.
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Old 04-07-2013, 13:33   #336
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Hi, everyone,

Yes, it doesn't look good, but there is still too much question for me (at any rate) to say it's time to consider all lost at sea.

Even the last communication, relative to storm sails "shredded", is open to [mis]interpretation. Depending on how tired and dispirited the person making the statement felt. Here's a few things to think about: does "shredded" mean failure of fabric, seams, or both? does it mean "blown off the boat by the wind?" no, not to me, so possibly could be mended. Since the storm sails are usually the smallest sails on the boat, they often get used for jury rigs, because masts start out tall, but are shortened by partial dismasting. And then there's wreckage to clear up.

I think the degree of wetness Mark J hypothesizes may be based on an assumption of total or partial dismasting, and the assumption of a great deal of water coming in through the holes through which the masts penetrate the decks and those big dorades. On a boat that size, there could easily be a dry bunk or two. Cold, wet, and fatigue are difficult enemies to fight all at one time. But since the worst of it, the weather has improved. The skipper shall have determined what, if anything, is left to make a jury rig from. Yes there will be other sails aboard than the damaged ones. probably would require cutting down to use with a jury rig. If the vessel had twin spinnaker poles, mounted on deck, those could form the basis of the jury rig.

I think the boat would be very hard to find, especially sitting there on the water in the ocean swells, with no masts and sails up at all, poor radar target, and difficult visual one.

They'll have wanted to keep as much sea water on the outside as possible, and they may have needed to catch rain water. Rest is a very high priority, and water, food less so. Drying bedding. I'd expect her to have been carrying a lot of preserved foods, canned goods, beans, pasta, rice. I mention this, because many yachts carry this kind of emergency rations, and are the kinds of items not offloaded by NZ and Australian Quarantine, unless infested...

The skipper will do whatever he can to preserve the welfare of the vessel and crew. And the skipper has not set off the EPIRB (usually mounted belowdecks), nor have wreckage of vessel or liferaft been spotted so far. It is true they could be all sunk. But it is also true that the vessel could be afloat and unseen by the Orions or just be somewhere they weren't looking.

There was a brief discussion of the difficulty for SAR people in spotting targets at sea on the thread about the sailor who went missing off FL earlier this year, and a search of the threads will find it for those of you who are interested.

Things happen at 18th century speeds on some sailboats, and we who wait, will wait at those slow, leisurely times, not the rapid internet rate we have today. This is a little strange, but seems to me a lot how it is. To me, a little akin to the marvel I still feel when I go by airplane so very much faster to a destination it might take months to sail straight to. Waiting is hard.

Ann
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Old 04-07-2013, 13:35   #337
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

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There's nothing wrong with keeping hope alive; David is my cousin (the twins are amazing people) he knows what to do. Nina always makes it back to port.
For sure , but nonetheless a dose of realism meant as being constructive to help folks who not familiar with boats / sailing / the locale in more fully understanding the challenges faced, including normally. and the possibilities.

The sea is an unforgiving place, but those who venture forth accept those risks.

Nonetheless I remain of the opinion that the Nina still within the realms of possibility of appearing over the horizon.

A comment a few pages back by the Father(?) of one of the crew (reported in US local press) mentioned an ETA of another 5 (now 4?) days - would be of interest to understand what that was based on........IIRC the ETA of 26 June was made by the NZ SAR folks, but I think that presumed all was well with her, even without problems that would slow speed being 25% out on a voyage of a month is not out of the ballpark.

Would be of interest to know what other sails she had onboard, especially whether any spare mainsails, if only the 2 then also shredding one (as well as the storm sails) of those (from weather or intentionally - from being stuck up the mast in a squall, and having to use a knife) would affect her speed majorly, especially as a schooner.
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Old 04-07-2013, 13:38   #338
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

On the cold and wet angle - if they have been dismasted and know they will be out there for some time, then being a wooden boat they will have plenty of fuel for heat! (seriously!).
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Old 04-07-2013, 14:16   #339
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Maybe it was my up bringing when my father use to "clip" me on the back of my head and tell me..."If you have nothing good to say, keep your comments to yourself". I think Family and Friends of Nina are quite capable of accepting any reality's when they're ready. JMHO
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Old 04-07-2013, 14:19   #340
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

First time poster here. I have been following this thread and rooting for the Nina and her crew.

I am a bit irked by all the naysaying.

With only two pieces of information, the length of time and the lack of an EPIRB signal, there are 4 scenarios:
1) The boat sank without time to activate the EPIRB
2) The Nina sank and the EPIRB malfunctioned
3) The Nina is damaged but the crew has decided not to use the EPIRB
4) The Nina is damaged and the EPIRB has malfunctioned

We can debate the likelihood of any of these scenarios, but given the crew are competent and the boat capable, any scenario is possible.

Only time and the SAR effort will tell-- and the only one of those two we can do anything about is the SAR effort. Props to all those who helped identify the lifeboat. That is the coolest use of "crowd sourcing" I've seen in a while.
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Old 04-07-2013, 14:21   #341
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Thank you all for your insights. As Ann said these things go slow and we will have to see it played out. Cherie
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Old 04-07-2013, 14:23   #342
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Don't be hard on the realists. They have good points too!! Cherie
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Old 04-07-2013, 14:41   #343
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Thank you Ann. In my opinion I felt RCC insisted they would have used the emergency signal to let them know position but feel its the last option button as once gone nothing else.

Interesting you mention emergency at hand. I'm an airline pilot and in our simulator training we are immersed in multiple emergencies. Right on, 1st thing deal with the emergency, stabilize. Our world is just that emergency as we get a handle on things the world gets bigger.ie, get crew members involved, then expand to the outside world. Sometimes checklists are the only thing we are worried about besides flying the airplane.

My questions, Evi seemed I thought comfortable with no sails and said new update 6pm. Appears June 4, it was messy but didn't put out a mayday or pan pan.

Wouldn't they have other sails? Would they still have bare poles if rigging down?

If caught in weather with no sails, does the boat bob or not. Would waves overcome bilge pumps. But I thought wood boats don't sink.

Are sailboats like airplanes whereas sometimes releasing controls in a plane it rights itself?

Thanks, Cherie
Hi Cherie,

I'll have a shot at some of your questions but please remember it's simply one view. I'll tell it from how I'd feel.

In pretty tough conditions I would be accepting of the fact that the storm sails had blown out. So long as the rig still stood I'd feel OK...the wind will drop at some stage then we'll have more sail options again.

They would have other sails but wouldn't be able to use them until the conditions moderated.

I the rig was down they might be able to find enough remnants of spars - spinnaker poles etc - to stand up a jury rig, that's often the case but it is never a fast rig, and progress is always slow. You often can't go where you want to either with a jury rig - it limits the points of sail you can adopt.

In heavy weather bare poles gives quite enough drive to keep the boat moving - we are talking probably 45 knots plus - and it varies by boat. However in very big seas, sails or no sails the boat tends to lose drive in the troughs.

The boat bobs about in big seas with no sails but in really heavy wind the rigging and masts act as quite sufficient sail.

Waves can overcome bilge pumps, however it is likely that that would only happen if there was a continual source of water into the hull. If a single wave broke across a boat and flooded down the hatch you might end up with a lot of water in the bilge (though you'd hope the hatch was closed in such conditions ) but the pumps would eventually cope. If there was some structural damage to a boat then it becomes more difficult to keep the water out and you run into issues like electrics and therefore electric bilge pumps failing so you are left with only manual pumps. Then you get a lot of debris in the bilge - paper, clothing goodness knows what but it all finds its way down there when you take water and this tends to block the strum boxes - the strainers - on the pump intakes...The Tzu Hang reference people are posting about is about a boat that suffered structural damage rounding the Horn - not once but twice. She stayed afloat based on the great efforts of her crew and took many days to reach port under jury rig.

As for wooden boats sinking...boats float not because they are built of inherently buoyant material but because they keep the water our of a space - they displace their own "weight" of water and thus they float. Most boats, wooden ones included, need to keep their own weight of water out to remain afloat.

As for releasing the controls Moitessier - another famous high latitudes sailor of a bygone era advocated just that at times in heavy weather.

I hope that helps.
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Old 04-07-2013, 14:46   #344
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

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First time poster here. I have been following this thread and rooting for the Nina and her crew.

I am a bit irked by all the naysaying.

With only two pieces of information, the length of time and the lack of an EPIRB signal, there are 4 scenarios:
1) The boat sank without time to activate the EPIRB
2) The Nina sank and the EPIRB malfunctioned
3) The Nina is damaged but the crew has decided not to use the EPIRB
4) The Nina is damaged and the EPIRB has malfunctioned

We can debate the likelihood of any of these scenarios, but given the crew are competent and the boat capable, any scenario is possible.

Only time and the SAR effort will tell-- and the only one of those two we can do anything about is the SAR effort. Props to all those who helped identify the lifeboat. That is the coolest use of "crowd sourcing" I've seen in a while.
5) The fixture the EPIRB was tied off to achieved neutral buoyancy too deep in the water column for effective range of transmitting signal.

By "naysaying" you mean those who still hold out hope for the crew, the fact is, an absence of other facts, all there is to go on is speculation. I am loathe to draw conclusion based upon speculation.

The human body is amazing, the will to survive is often beyond comprehension. People have walked out of a tight spot even when the rest of the world had lost all hope.
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Old 04-07-2013, 15:15   #345
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Evi has an amateur license, call sign KC0PWT effective 3/21/2013.
I just had a look at Evi's qrz.com entry. Sometimes if amateurs are going off on a boat somewhere and intend taking a rig with them they post details of the voyage and suggested sched times. I've had contacts with several ship's officers via that route.

There are no such details on Evi's QRZ entry.
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