hurricane Hugo II, dodging the bullet

[Loquat]

Dear Cruzers,

With H-cane season upon us, I am wondering what to do if we get another Hugo here in Chucktown. I have a couple top secret h-holes scoped out locally but my question to the forum is- Considering the direct hit to Charleston in '89, points north were decimated by surge and the fiercest winds from IOP to Myrtle Beach, points south faired better, Edisto Beach I think had just a bit of wind. With the modern forecasting it seems they can predict a h-cane track and its landfall within about 30 miles. I know each h-cane track will be different but shouldn't this be my first plan of action, to dodge the bullet? I am talking about using the ICW as an escape, not offshore. So, two,three days before impact, get the hell out of Chuck if we are in the bullzeye!

Any thoughts would be appreciated.


Loquat

[CarlF]

You are right that the east side of a hurricane is the more dangerous. The wind speeds are increased by the speed the storm is moving forward (which can be 30-40 mph more). To the west of the eye the wind speed is reduced by this amount.

I think you'll find that the 3 day landfall forecast is still not very good and you'd have to move your boat 100 miles to improve your odds much. And what do you do if the forecast track is 50 miles to your south? Go north?

I think you're better off spending 3 days getting really settled in your hurricane hole - hopefully one with no other boats to drag down onto you. That's the biggest risk for a well prepared boat.

Carl

[W32PAMELA]

I would spend some time checking out potential hurricane holes up the Santee-Cooper or similar local river.

Landfall of storms along the SE US coast is not always very predictable especially if the storm takes a track paralleling the coast like Floyd in 1999. Trying to run north or south 3 days before landfall could leave you in the middle of the storm in an area you haven't made advanced plans for.

For a direct hit you need a hole to secure the boat in and an evacuation plan for yourself.

[MarkJ]

You better make your mind up real quick.