My folks just did a coastal passage
. Since they had limited internet
I watched the weather
closely via all sources. They all pretty well hovered around 25 kn SW. Pwc
had the higher winds, nearer 27 knots GFS gave around 24 knots and pwg somewhere between the two. The local weather
forcast was for SW 20. In reality they all were right. I guess the award
goes to PWC
as they reckon they had 30kn for a while, and they aren't all that prone to over exaggeration. But in all honesty its a pretty good result for modern weather info.
I do think the more we as sailers can learn about the different models and the modern weather computers
I am still facinated by the windgust varible and if its any use. I usually predict it like Barnicle does, looking at the synoptic, and the satpicand the surounding topography to guess at it.
At the moment it seems like a pretty deep rabithole of info you could get lost
in if you aren't careful. It was so much easier in the old days were a newpaper weatherchart and a voice forcast was about all you had!
Then gribs came along and changed things. But now we have 4 or 5 base worldwide models, and a fair few modified versions of the base models to wade through. One varible I still feel we are missing is an uncertainty varible. It would be nice if the gribs gave a confidence rating, rather than having to watch them for a few days before, and then compare a bunch of different models to get a feel for the levels of error that the conputer is working under.