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View Poll Results: What is the worst forcast weather that you would go out in?
Calm to light winds - 0 to 10 knots 0 0%
Moderate winds - 11 to 16 knots 2 4.55%
Fresh Winds - 17 to 21 knots 4 9.09%
Strong winds - 22 to 27 knots 20 45.45%
Near gale - 28 to 33 knots 12 27.27%
Gale or stronger - over 33 knots 6 13.64%
Voters: 44. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 16-01-2009, 20:56   #1
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For what forcast weather would you stay put?

I'm curious about what level of forecast weather members would stay at a good anchorage rather than moving on, assuming that a good 4 day forecast is available.
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Old 16-01-2009, 21:36   #2
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All else being equal nothing really is. Are the police after you? Is this some great anchorage or what? Have you been really foolish and promised someone you would be 50 miles from there in the morning? Situations are greater than one forecast. Depending on the wind direction I could go in a 33 knots. Lacking a good reason in a great spot I might just stay if the weather forecast was really great. Sort of like calling into the office and saying you feel far to good to come in to work today. Forecasts don't always dictate plans.

4 day forecast? What if the trip is 5 days? What if it is one day and I could stop over half way and hang out for a few more days. The problem with theoretical forecasts is it really is easy to say what the heck since you are not going any place. It's not a navigation question. It's a trip with all sorts of possibilities. I'm considering the possibilities as much as the weather. If weather was the only issue I don't see why I'm going any place unless the forecast where I'm at is about go nuclear and the volcano is ready to blow. The gale might look better even with the Admiral pissed off - been there done that. Not anxious to do it again. Captains learn! Having done something before changes the outlook.

What if th Admiral is not thinking she likes the forecast. Is the forecast worse than having the Admiral pissed off for 4 days? We don't work in a vacuum.
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Old 16-01-2009, 21:51   #3
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0-5 winds, I might go swimming...;-)

Strong winds...would depend on distance and heading...I long slog windward would not be pleasant....a downhill ride might be fun...

I'd probably check my anchor, make some dark and stormies and grab a good book for the gales...
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Old 16-01-2009, 22:15   #4
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We were out in 50 knots winds on Long Island Sound a couple months ago. Very experienced crew, not a lot of fetch, 50' Beneteau.

It would have be a different weekend if we were on the Ocean side of Long Island. In fact, we would have stayed put.
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Old 16-01-2009, 23:54   #5
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I suppose it has a lot to do with the boat.
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Old 17-01-2009, 00:08   #6
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Yes, its a matter of where the wind is from etc.
I would go the 11-15 force 4 to windward, or 16-22 Force 5 behind me for 4 days.

Who would want 16-22 on the nose for 4 days when they could wait for better weather?

Who really wants 27 kts behind them for 4 days?

And the forecests say: "Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here" so 27 kts means gusts to 37kts. and 22kts means gusts to 30kts. Thanks, wheres my snorkle, I'll look at the weather next week.

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Old 17-01-2009, 01:42   #7
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Today's 4 day forecast...

Coastal Waters Forecast for New South Wales


Issued at 4:05 pm EDT on Saturday 17 January 2009
valid until midnight on Tuesday Please Be Aware:
Wind gusts may be a further 40 per cent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Warnings
Strong Wind Warning north of Wooli
Synoptic Situation
High in the eastern Bight moving eastwards, expected east of Bass Strait on Sunday and then over the Tasman with a ridge towards northeastern New South Wales for the remainder of the week.

Sydney Coastal Waters,
Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 18/23 knots, easing to 8/13 knots overnight.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres, abating to 1 metre overnight.Swell: S 2 to 2.5 metres.
Sunday: Wind: SW/SE 5/10 knots early increasing to E/SE 10/15 knots in the afternoon, then turning E/NE in the evening.Sea: about 1 metre.Swell: S/SE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Monday Outlook: Wind: N/NE increasing to 15/25 knots.
Tuesday Outlook: Wind: N/NE increasing to 20/30 knots.

This is a fairly typical forecast for the next 4 days. I'm thinking cruising, no hurry, trying to keep the admiral happy. Broken bay is 15nm north, head to head, but Port Stephens is 70 nm north, head to entrance.

I came back in conditions like Sunday's. Quite nice but used the engine.

But this is one day in four at the moment.
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Old 17-01-2009, 01:58   #8
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As Paul says we don’t live in a vacuum and you determine going out in adverse weather based on necessity.

Going out in a Gale to help in a mayday situation is a judgment call based on your abilities.

Going out in a Gale so as to be back for the weekend is a judgment call based on your priorities.

Very different decision process.
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Old 17-01-2009, 04:52   #9
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You talk about a good 4 day forecast (I havent found one that can achieve even reasonable expectation for the third day, let alone later), but your poll only gives current data.

My decision to go out would be based primarily on what is coming, rather that what is there at the moment.
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Old 17-01-2009, 14:40   #10
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LOL I can't believe I have voted the LOWEST wind speed!

Its not a vote on what you can handle if you must. Isn't it what you would do if you had any option?

Boracay:

Saturday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 18/23 knots, easing to 8/13 knots overnight.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres, abating to 1 metre overnight.Swell: S 2 to 2.5 metres.
Go North, young man!

Sunday: Wind: SW/SE 5/10 knots early increasing to E/SE 10/15 knots in the afternoon, then turning E/NE in the evening.Sea: about 1 metre.Swell: S/SE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Keep going north

Monday Outlook: Wind: N/NE increasing to 15/25 knots.
Go south if you can make it in one day

Tuesday Outlook: Wind: N/NE increasing to 20/30 knots.
Stay in bed, Fred, with a book, a rum, and a chic


Remember: E/SE is given in TRUE so on the NSW coast that will mean North East to Easterly wind. It will appear to be on the nose (or close reach) as the course Sydney to Pt Stephens is east of north.


The main bit I have learned about coastal cruising is if you have the time wait for the weather to be perfect You can relax in one pretty place for a bit longer and have a nicer sailing day

Mark
PS Sorry we missed you in Sydney. It would have been fun to do a cruise up the coast together. But now we are in Surfers Paradise we are never coming south again! Yippee!
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Old 17-01-2009, 15:13   #11
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Downwind courses for winds over 25 knots. Definitely not beating into that. Perhaps on the beam. Broad reaches are a blast in high winds, but they can over power the autopilot which when rounded up can't apply enough helm to get off the wind. That's when helmsman has to take over. YIPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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Old 17-01-2009, 16:01   #12
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It's not really related to sailing since I run a power boat but I will cancel a cruise if the forecast is for winds over 30 knots. Its not that boat cant handle it, it can. The problem is that it is difficult to impossible for the crew and scientists to do their work when the boat is pounding or rolling hard.
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Old 19-01-2009, 09:00   #13
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As somebody said, things are never equal...

I do most of my sailing in San Francisco Bay. If you couldn't/wouldn't sail in winds of 30 knots you would be at the dock for most all days between April and November. Not that it blows quite that hard EVERY day but it could, and it does MANY days. We would consider a day with steady afternoon winds of less than 20 knots unusually light in the central bay that time of year.

Would I head out into the ocean on an upwind passage into winds of 30 knots? Not by choice! But sailing passages in the northwest Pacific Ocean your boat (and you!) should always be ready to deal with at least 50 knots and the waves that are associated with winds like that.
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Old 19-01-2009, 10:33   #14
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Great Ketch,

a Few years ago, I was out your way on Business. I found a great little breakfast place called the "Lighthouse" and then walked around the docks looking at boats.
I definitely noticed that the majority of the boats seemed to be what I would consider to be " Blue Water" vessels. There was certainly a " no fooling around" feel . Heavier gear etc...
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Old 14-02-2009, 05:08   #15
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My wife and I are struggling with this question right now. We're sailing to Mexico from San Diego and we've received varied and conflicting forecasts. The jet stream has been hanging out right over San Diego for almost 10 days now (unusual) and bringing with it a series of gales. Our difficulty in making the decision is that there aren't a lot of good ports on the west coast of Baja for a southerly wind plus it's just the two of us. We're comfortable in 25 knots of wind but we have at least 400 miles to cover to get out of this weather pattern. With seas forecast to 18', many of our friends have been advising us to stay until the current pattern changes.
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