2016 Weather to the Azores

[Matt Johnson]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Why should they be reserved? They are normally full up. First come first served, I think.

There is normally plenty of space in S Miguel though.

You can reserve a table in a restaurant but not the one where people are seated at, eating.

?

b.

Well, we couldn't get into the marina at Las Palmas due to them reserving most of it for the ARC... I assumed they did the same in Horta.

Unfortunately, the captain has to leave the boat for a week or two while he goes back to Germany (flight is out of Horta). His girlfriend will be staying aboard and does not want to be left at anchor.

edit.... the fun of sailing to a schedule!

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by funjohnson

Well, we couldn't get into the marina at Las Palmas due to them reserving most of it for the ARC... I assumed they did the same in Horta.

Unfortunately, the captain has to leave the boat for a week or two while he goes back to Germany (flight is out of Horta). His girlfriend will be staying aboard and does not want to be left at anchor.

edit.... the fun of sailing to a schedule!

Ah, you know, assumptions. I hope for you you assumed right. Probably just ask ARC office.

There is the main airport at S Miguel I think flights to Germany a couple of times a week. We stopped at S Miguel twice. Last time in the new marina.

There is also a ferry to Horta (and, I believe, a flight too). Level: easy.

b.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

And what when it does not?

I used a question mark at the end of the statement which those who know me immediately recognize. I am actually asking a question which implies I do not have the answer.

As I have received more than one msg telling me I am dense (as if I ever claimed to be everything to everybody) I think this is a fine koan for all those who wait for the weather to become what they see as the minimum optimum to take off.

How should the 'the Caribbean to the Azores' be sailed in absence of the Azores High?

Cheers,
b.

Weather in Continental Portugal is directly linked with the high on the Açores and I can tell you that this year has not been a normal year. Spring come late 10 days ago to disappear again over rain and cold. Very unusual for this time of year in Portugal. The roads to the highest mountain (2000m) have been closed due to snow, I don't remember this have ever happened at this time of the year.

So I would say, expect not a "normal" weather pattern on the Atlantic, near Açores/Portugal this year.

[olianta]

End of next week we (a crew of two) are planning to set off from Martinique on a direct route to Lisboa, not planning a stop in the Azores but who knows .... We will be trying to sail a most ENE course as we are planning to pass south of the Azores. I think in this way we will avoid Lows coming down from northwest. Taking in consideration this late spring Is it likely to expect an intensifying Low south of the Azores end of June like the one that caused the treachery of last May 6?
Rumen


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[olianta]

Sorry, I meant "beginning of June" in the question of my previous post.


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[boatman61]

I noticed last year that seasons seemed to be running late by a few weeks.. the Artic Jet Stream seems to have fluctuated somewhat.. what the cause is I know not..

[olianta]

It does not sound encouraging. Hope this year seasons are running less than few weeks late in the Atlantic.



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[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Polux

Weather in Continental Portugal is directly linked with the high on the Açores and I can tell you that this year has not been a normal year. Spring come late 10 days ago to disappear again over rain and cold. Very unusual for this time of year in Portugal. The roads to the highest mountain (2000m) have been closed due to snow, I don't remember this have ever happened at this time of the year.

So I would say, expect not a "normal" weather pattern on the Atlantic, near Açores/Portugal this year.

Good eye for detail there! I did ask a question than never got answered.

The Azorean High is not normally present during the spring. Not in its pure summer form in any case. When it does set in, the spring pattern gets reversed (on the coast) and 'nortada' (is this the right word btw?) sets in offshore. Portuguese trades.

On the shore, I would only wildly guess the weather will be dictated by continental as much as by ocean patterns. Perhaps the ocean side wx was about regular but things over the continent went astray. We would have to ask someone who specializes in European and interface weather.

Further to your observations from Portugal, I can add that here in the Canaries it is Spring as any other, if somewhat wet. that's good, as the winter was very dry. Here in Africa no water = no life. We need rain.

BTW that question still stands open. How should the Carib - Horta route be sailed in absence of the High?

Any one?

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by olianta

End of next week we (a crew of two) are planning to set off from Martinique on a direct route to Lisboa, not planning a stop in the Azores but who knows .... We will be trying to sail a most ENE course as we are planning to pass south of the Azores. I think in this way we will avoid Lows coming down from northwest. Taking in consideration this late spring Is it likely to expect an intensifying Low south of the Azores end of June like the one that caused the treachery of last May 6?
Rumen


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If the High holds / sets in / then you will run into calms and headwinds passing South of the core. BUT mind that this early the core tends to be somewhat lower (more S) than in June and July. The good news is if this scenario rolls out, you will get flat seas. If your boat sails fine in light winds, you will have fun, suntan and nature watching days mid 1000 miles or so. Slow and pleasant sailing.

Do not worry about probabilities too much. Odd and inclement weather may happen any time of the year. It does not help much if you face a fully blown gale even if this gale was statistically not common. Just prepare your boat and your crew as if a gale were certain. Then if one does not happen, smile, sing and enjoy the ride.

BTW It is not late spring yet. June is late spring. Summer starts towards the end of June.

PS If you do make it without a touch down in the Azores, I will be most grateful if you could post your report on the forum. I want to sail non stop one day too and would be interested in hearing your observations and impressions. I am sure other members here would be happy too.

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by olianta

It does not sound encouraging. Hope this year seasons are running less than few weeks late in the Atlantic.



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Weather does not follow any fixed patterns. A season that starts odd may work out very well in the end. Another that starts with exemplary conditions may turn sour at any point and without much warning. The opposite is as common as anything else. Respectable Met Offices are known to be way off in their mid/long term forecasts. NOBODY knows what the weather is going to be on any long ocean passage.

Once you have selected the best season for your boat and crew and when you set off with a good forecast, that's likely as much as one can do. Just sail when the time is right and set off with a good forecast.

Do not worry about things that are beyond your control. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And have fun.

As you said you want to sail below the possible system: make sure your boat is light, the bottom is super clean and your light wind sails are in good repair.

Sailing low, if any system wants to jump on you (say some oddball Lows coming from W/NW) , just stay S and let it roll over the top. And do keep one eye and one ear on tropical wx news as tropical systems are also one of the elements of your puzzle. NOAA has both voice and radiofax daily scheds. (Boston for the upper part, New Orleans for the tropical side)

BTW The sad stories of last year were true. But not everything said last year was true. As I have found, some boats that were said to get rolled over 8 times, did not get rolled over at all. And some boats that were still good to go did get abandoned because their crews were not able. So my take is do not look at your adventure through the eyes of other sailors, in other boats and sailing in another year.

Cheers,
b.

[olianta]

Many thanks for the advice in both your letters. I follow your opinions on various threads.
My boat does very good in light winds because it has a narrow hull (2,75m, little wetted surface and it weighs only 4 tons. What she does not cope well with are short steep head waves like the ones we have in the Black Sea and to some extent in the Med and we cannot count on using the engine for more than 3-4 days because of modest tank size (60 lt) plus another 60 in jerrycans. So far using the storm jib only once in gale force winds proved to be very efficient. I have not yet experienced such conditions as to deploy our Fiorentino shark drogue but it is there. In case we need it (hope we don't).
I will certainly post our experience after the passage that we hope to do without stop.

P.S. Apologies for this post being a bit off topic.
Rumen


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[barnakiel]

May 12 update.

Analysis chart shows plenty of High that is forecast to drift Eastwards now. More High Westwards forecast to dissipate.

We can see weak tropical waves marching towards the West Indies at the bottom of the chartlet. In two days (May 14) NOAA switches from 'bad weather' to 'hurricane area' chartlets ...

96hrs frcst shows two High centers the Westward one at 1029 later tending 1034. The flow around the two will be circular and there will be a front in between. This kind of from is likely to dissipate and often results in cloud and overcast patches encountered within well formed Highs.

Just on the edges of our attention, in the Med, one can see a big one brewing. I do not know that area but it looks like the Med will get a nasty spring storm in a couple of days.

Graphics attached.

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by olianta

(...)

My boat does very good in light winds because it has a narrow hull (2,75m, little wetted surface and it weighs only 4 tons. What she does not cope well with are short steep head waves like the ones we have in the Black Sea and to some extent in the Med and we cannot count on using the engine for more than 3-4 days because of modest tank size (60 lt) plus another 60 in jerrycans.

(...)

We have sailed twice from Guadeloupe to S Miguel (and onwards) on a nearly direct route both times. We did not get any step short headseas. It was getting flatter the closer we got to the core of the High. I can imagine that if you sail just below the core, in light Easterly winds, there may be some chop, but nothing beyond manageable. In fact to us sailing close to the core was the best - just not very fast (averaging some 60 miles a day only).

We are in a similar boat except our wetted area is at least moderate (we are in a double ender) and our fuel consumption was 8 liters towards S Miguel and half a liter from S Miguel to Las Palmas. That 8 liters only because I start the engine now and then to keep it oiled. I normally take plenty of water and very little diesel on our long passages thru know calm areas.

Cheers,
b.

[boatman61]

Looking ahead to the 22nd.. an early June departure should be a nice sail..
Nice weathers kicking in here in Portugal at last.. 14 day forecast is 94% sun, mid to high 20's rising to 31c on the 28th..

[barnakiel]

May 15 update:

As seen in the images, we are enjoying plenty of High pressure in the Azores area and the 96hrs frcst chartlet shows more High pressure coming to our help from the West.

There is a new Low forecast in the 96 horizon. This one is forecast to take an over the top route over the High pressure center (-s).

The long front between the centers is there for everybody to see. If someone has better understanding of this particular feature it will be nice to hear your interpretations. I think, I have seen the similar fronts in early parts of the crossing seasons before. They seem less common later, towards June and July.

Cheers,
b.