NOW WHAT A COINCIDENCE!
Thanks to ATSB for a well presented report which answers 4 of my original questions, as well as my subsequent questions pertaining to waypoints and autopilot
What is clear is that there is a huge amount of almost unbelievable assumptions that have been made in what appears to be a report trying to justify BFO which is aimed at eliminating the possibility of a Northern route!
The most glaringly obvious one being a contradiction!
On Page 18 it says " BFO was used to estimate the speed and direction the aircraft was travelling relative to the satellite
." Great so this crucial information can be calculated scientifically.........
But no this is not the case! On page 24 " For a given relative motion, there are many combinations of aircraft speed and heading that will produce the correct frequency change (BFO). There is however a limited range of speeds at which an aircraft can operate and therefore the number of feasible speed/direction solutions is limited (Figure 23)." If you read BFO validation page 29 " This simulation was able to prove definitively that the BFO value is influenced by the location, speed and heading of the aircraft.", none of which are known, "assuming a single
turn followed by a predominantly straight track". and then go onto the assumptions made for the three Analyses.
Analysis A " Speed and heading modelled by a process18 in which values may drift over time but tend to revert to a fixed (unknown) nominal value",
Analysis B: " Heading changes allowed at each arc crossing" and in
Analysis C add on " Groundspeed can change at each arc crossing"
Talk about fixing inputs to try fit factual data! So really anything and everything is possible with this unscientific approach.
This really appears a case of no idea but need to be seen to be doing something, especially considering the wealth of information as a percentage of the report is "justifying" BFO, and in the small print on page 57 " They illustrate the sensitivity of the BFO frequency calculation to heading and latitude errors, showing that the calculation works and that it is reasonably sensitive to errors in aircraft location and heading." Wow - what a get out clause!
So Kate's sighting would actually give considerable weight to the Southern option as opposed to the Northern route as it occurred after the last known fix and heading at 18:22, From my cruising the net discounting the Northern route I think I understand why there is so much disagreement about this! I have no doubt they knew this anyway as pointed out in post 579 Malaysia says there's sealed evidence on MH370 that cannot be made public
, and would offer a simple logical explanation of the lights, buoy and unusaul behaviour of the ship detailed in post 495 and Kate's previous recollections
If this is the case considering there are probably over 1000 relatives that lost
loved ones why not just state this publicly at the time!
From this it is highly probable that really MH370 could be anywhere on the Southern portion of the 7th ping ring, within its fuel
range of its last known position, which factually would be the last ACARS transmission
at 17:06 as that includes fuel
data, where using best efficiency to determine range the intersect of that circle with the last ping ring will give the extremes of the last contact! This most likely could be narrowed down further by recalculating from the last fix at 18:22 based on the average speed it did to that point of some 400 knots. If there is further radar
data described as I suspect in the previous paragraph then this would be able to be narrowed down even further, and as even our GPS logs
SOG and COG it could be verified that if there was an engine
fire which is the simplest explanation of why Kate saw the orange glow the most probable location on the 7 ping ring could be narrowed down even further, as Stewart so far appears to be the only one who has used the facts to date to look for plausible solutions, rather than manipulating data to suit assumptions
I have no doubt Kate saw MH370 and I hope that all this discussion here will help to bring about a change in attitude to the way the poor relatives are dealt with, because all this job preservation and secrecy that is surrounding this disappearance is not going to help find MH370 and bring closure to them!
The search is clearly one of hope, but treating the public as mushrooms is not acceptable.
Thanks to those that helped answer my questions here and cruising the net over the last few days has only left my motive questions unanswered!