I Think I Saw MH370

[SaucySailoress]

Gentlemen, thank you for your help. I have had a terrible weekend, coming to terms with the fact that I now believe I watched a live cremation. I couldn't accept what I was seeing, so reasoned it off as just unusual, justifiable as other things. Then I got to shore and heard about the lost plane. And I told them what I saw, and heard my sighting waved off to Vietnam by the cruisers in the yacht club shack on the beach. And thanked I God that I hadn't seen what I thought I had seen.

But recently I heard that they couldn't find it. And I remembered that I had thought I had seen it. And so I came here and asked what to do. I said the same thing I said in the Yacht Club. I think I thought you'd also dismiss my sighting, and tell me what I really saw. But you didn't, you asked the right questions, and from those questions, Stewart took what I saw from the questions you answered, ignored the stuff I didn't see, and has illustrated what I saw.

I hoped I was wrong, but this is what I believe I saw. Stewart emailed my the pictures a short while ago, and they rang a bell. And I looked closely at our boat track, and what Stewart has illustrated fits in exactly with what we (the boat and I) were doing at that time. I emailed a copy of my track at that specific time to the ATSB (before Stewart flew the route to test it), and explained my belief that what I saw fitted in with the time of that gybe, one of the flight paths I had been sent. And Stewart flew it, and it's possible. Maybe not likely if you have faith in technology, but not enough to kill the very real possibility that this is what I saw and denied.

Rather than convincing me I was wrong, as I thought I had wanted, you have shown to me that it is perfectly plausible. Therefore, I have accepted that I saw people die, and I didn't know it at the time, and there was nothing we could have done anyway to save their lives, but I could have acknowledged it sooner, and would have if it didn't hurt so much.

Originally Posted by stewball5

I believe it is time for me to share with this group the initial results of an analysis I have been doing on not only the entire MH370 flight profile, but also Saucy's sighting. I believe that she really did see MH370 and it was on fire caused by an engine failure.

[Jess928]

Saucy,
at present I'm finding this slightly conflicting. If your 'orange' sighting behind the boat is believed to be a fire onboard MH370 as Stewart's flight plan suggests, how can the Inmarsat pings over the water several hours later and several hundred miles south east be explained by him?

[Gclark8]

BBC just posted this a few hours back: BBC News - Malaysian MH370: Inmarsat confident on crash 'hotspot'

Part quote:
The UK satellite company Inmarsat has told the BBC that the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines jet has yet to go to the area its scientists think is the plane's most likely crash site.
Inmarsat's communications with the aircraft are seen as the best clues to the whereabouts of Flight MH370.
The hunt for the lost jet is currently taking a short break while ships map the Indian Ocean floor.
When the search resumes, the Inmarsat "hotspot" will be a key focus.
But so too will a number of areas being fed into the investigation by other groups.
Australian authorities are expected to announce where these are shortly.
The BBC's Horizon TV programme has been given significant access to the telecommunications experts at Inmarsat.
It .....

I suggest this may not be the answer, as it has been proven by Saucy's sighting and others that the aircraft has followed known IFR navigation way points.

The "Fugro Equator" has been on station in the Indian Ocean since the weekend, however public satellite tracking of the ship has been turned off since the 10th of June when the ship was in Bali. I would like to see some transparency in this new search.

I sincerely hope someone in the search team starts to think like a pilot and looks to the intersecting points of the known tracks (Cocos-Perth) and the ping rings, not just the hypothetical ping rings alone.

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by SaucySailoress

Gentlemen, thank you for your help. I have had a terrible weekend, coming to terms with the fact that I now believe I watched a live cremation. I couldn't accept what I was seeing, so reasoned it off as just unusual, justifiable as other things. Then I got to shore and heard about the lost plane. And I told them what I saw, and heard my sighting waved off to Vietnam by the cruisers in the yacht club shack on the beach. And thanked I God that I hadn't seen what I thought I had seen.

But recently I heard that they couldn't find it. And I remembered that I had thought I had seen it. And so I came here and asked what to do. I said the same thing I said in the Yacht Club. I think I thought you'd also dismiss my sighting, and tell me what I really saw. But you didn't, you asked the right questions, and from those questions, Stewart took what I saw from the questions you answered, ignored the stuff I didn't see, and has illustrated what I saw.

I hoped I was wrong, but this is what I believe I saw. Stewart emailed my the pictures a short while ago, and they rang a bell. And I looked closely at our boat track, and what Stewart has illustrated fits in exactly with what we (the boat and I) were doing at that time. I emailed a copy of my track at that specific time to the ATSB (before Stewart flew the route to test it), and explained my belief that what I saw fitted in with the time of that gybe, one of the flight paths I had been sent. And Stewart flew it, and it's possible. Maybe not likely if you have faith in technology, but not enough to kill the very real possibility that this is what I saw and denied.

Rather than convincing me I was wrong, as I thought I had wanted, you have shown to me that it is perfectly plausible. Therefore, I have accepted that I saw people die, and I didn't know it at the time, and there was nothing we could have done anyway to save their lives, but I could have acknowledged it sooner, and would have if it didn't hurt so much.

Dear Kate,

When you first started this thread, no one could have known the outcome for you. I am wishing you a speedy healing from a traumatic event.

Live long and prosper!

Ann

[Gclark8]

A new post on MH370 is up at Duncan Steel | Space Scientist, Author & Broadcaster


STATEMENT FROM AN INDEPENDENT MH370 INVESTIGATION TEAM
Shortly after the disappearance of MH370 on March 8th, an informal group of people with diverse technical backgrounds came together on-line to discuss the event and analyze the specific technical information that had been released, with the individuals sharing reference material and their experience with aircraft and satellite systems. While there remain a number of uncertainties and some disagreements as to the interpretation of aspects of the data, our best estimates of a location of the aircraft at 00:11UT (the last ping ring) cluster in the Indian Ocean near 36.02S, 88.57E. This location is consistent with an averagegroundspeed of approximately 470kts and the wind conditions at the time. The exact location is dependent on specific assumptions as to the flight path before 18:38UT. The range of locations, based on reasonable variations in the earlier flight path result in the cluster of results shown. We recommend that the search for MH370 be focused in this area.

We welcome any additional information that can be released to us by the accident investigation team that would allow us to refine our models and our predictions. We offer to work directly with the investigation team, to share our work, to collaborate on further work, or to contribute in any way that can aid the investigation. Additional information relating to our analysis will be posted on Duncan Steel | Space Scientist, Author & Broadcaster and TMF Associates MSS blog. A report of the assumptions and approaches used to calculate the estimated location is being prepared and will be published to these web sites in the near future.
The following individuals have agreed to be publicly identified with this statement, to represent the larger collective that has contributed to this work, and to make themselves available to assist with the investigation in any constructive way. Other members prefer to remain anonymous, but their contributions are gratefully acknowledged. We prefer that contact be made through the organizations who have published this statement.

Brian Anderson, BE: Havelock North, New Zealand;
Sid Bennett, MEE: Chicago, Illinois, USA;
Curon Davies, MA: Swansea, UK;
Michael Exner, MEE: Colorado, USA;
Tim Farrar, PhD: Menlo Park, California, USA;
Richard Godfrey, BSc: Frankfurt, Germany;
Bill Holland, BSEE: Cary, North Carolina, USA;
Geoff Hyman, MSc: London, UK;
Victor Iannello, ScD: Roanoke, Virginia, USA;
Duncan Steel, PhD: Wellington, New Zealand.

[stewball5]

Originally Posted by SaucySailoress

Gentlemen, thank you for your help. I have had a terrible weekend, coming to terms with the fact that I now believe I watched a live cremation. I couldn't accept what I was seeing, so reasoned it off as just unusual, justifiable as other things. Then I got to shore and heard about the lost plane. And I told them what I saw, and heard my sighting waved off to Vietnam by the cruisers in the yacht club shack on the beach. And thanked I God that I hadn't seen what I thought I had seen.

But recently I heard that they couldn't find it. And I remembered that I had thought I had seen it. And so I came here and asked what to do. I said the same thing I said in the Yacht Club. I think I thought you'd also dismiss my sighting, and tell me what I really saw. But you didn't, you asked the right questions, and from those questions, Stewart took what I saw from the questions you answered, ignored the stuff I didn't see, and has illustrated what I saw.

I hoped I was wrong, but this is what I believe I saw. Stewart emailed my the pictures a short while ago, and they rang a bell. And I looked closely at our boat track, and what Stewart has illustrated fits in exactly with what we (the boat and I) were doing at that time. I emailed a copy of my track at that specific time to the ATSB (before Stewart flew the route to test it), and explained my belief that what I saw fitted in with the time of that gybe, one of the flight paths I had been sent. And Stewart flew it, and it's possible. Maybe not likely if you have faith in technology, but not enough to kill the very real possibility that this is what I saw and denied.

Rather than convincing me I was wrong, as I thought I had wanted, you have shown to me that it is perfectly plausible. Therefore, I have accepted that I saw people die, and I didn't know it at the time, and there was nothing we could have done anyway to save their lives, but I could have acknowledged it sooner, and would have if it didn't hurt so much.

Saucy, thanks for the kind words. I feel I must clarify something now regarding your statement about watching a "live cremation" in your first paragraph. What I believe is that you witnessed an engine fire in the #1 (left) engine closest to you. I believe that the crew was able to put out the fire in about about 10 minutes with only damage to the engine by going through the procedures in the checklist. They continued the flight on one engine. Based on a preliminary look at the single engine performance from the flight manual, they could have met the timeline dictated by the Inmarsat arcs and made it to what I think is about 230 nm northeast of where ATSB was looking for the black boxes.

The bottom line is you did the right thing by turning in your observations to the ATSB. Regardless of timing, I don't think they thought it through, especially if they did not get in touch with you. More later...

Warm Regards,
Stew Stoddart

[SaucySailoress]

Originally Posted by stewball5

Saucy, thanks for the kind words. I feel I must clarify something now regarding your statement about watching a "live cremation" in your first paragraph. What I believe is that you witnessed an engine fire in the #1 (left) engine closest to you. I believe that the crew was able to put out the fire in about about 10 minutes with only damage to the engine by going through the procedures in the checklist. They continued the flight on one engine. Based on a preliminary look at the single engine performance from the flight manual, they could have met the timeline dictated by the Inmarsat arcs and made it to what I think is about 230 nm northeast of where ATSB was looking for the black boxes.

Thank you, that helps. It has been stressful for me coming to terms with what I had neatly locked away, so I dread to imagine what it must be like for the families. I truly hope that your investigation yields useful info that will help the process along.

Originally Posted by stewball5

The bottom line is you did the right thing by turning in your observations to the ATSB. Regardless of timing, I don't think they thought it through, especially if they did not get in touch with you. More later...

Warm Regards,
Stew Stoddart

They did call early on - I wasn't sure if I was meant to disclose that! I also did receive follow up emails from my earlier emails (all with a standard, massively long confidentiality statement), but not from the last one I submitted wherein I clarified the potential timing of the sighting.

Now that I have been able to scientifically accept what I saw, and therefore believe in it, I am much happier within myself. Whether the official investigation teams chose to accept it or not, at least I have shared it and the weight of guilt has gone.

As an afterthought, not being a big fan of the news myself I had forgotten how hysterical it can all be. It was a shock when it came like an unexpected bombardment, but it was very short-lived and hopefully it might encourage people to start thinking outside the box, and expanding the search possibilities.

Good luck with your research, and please keep us informed.

[stewball5]

Originally Posted by Flight

Stew, that's a lovely map and easier to understand for the less technically minded among us (myself)

I just wondered if it is worth assuming, for argument's sake, that Saucy did see MAS370.

And that the orange glow was caused by fire of some sort.

Could we extrapolate anything at all from this?

I think it's been discussed widely that a fire serious enough to cause a loss of communications instruments and so on would also, probably, be too serious for an aircraft to survive in terms of staying aloft for the subsequent 6 or 7 hours that we are led to believe MAS370 did.

However, there may be those who have their theories regarding this and I would be interested to hear them.

(Given that no windows were observed, is it reasonable to say that the orange glow was noticed around the plane, or was it more that the whole thing appeared orange, all over?)

FLIGHT, thanks for the kind words. Your suggestion of assuming Saucy's observation was correct and she did see MH370 on fire is exactly what I did, but with a little background before hand. I had spent a significant amount of time looking at the overall flight profile, including "flying" a couple of complete profiles in the simulator. I believe now that there were two fires, one just before the abrupt turn at IGARI to the west, and the second the engine failure and fire that Saucy saw. I sincerely believe now that she did see MH370.

The first fire was, I believe, and as others have stated, in the Engineering and Electronics (E&E) bay below the cockpit. This fire caused a gradual loss of all communications as it smoldered, except the Inmarsat transponder. When the fire was discovered by smoke in the cockpit, the crew put on their oxygen masks and made their abrupt left turn back toward Thailand and Malaysia. A course of 263 degrees would take them to the VAMPI waypoint if they did not see one of several airports along the way lighted that would be big enough for them to land. This immediate turn toward VAMPI could have been pre-programmed in event of an emergency during climb out and level off. The first airport along the way would have been Narathiwat Airport, Thailand, with a runway of 8,200 feet.

During the turn they started an immediate climb to 36,000 feet (thrust limited at their gross weight). As they climbed, they made a decision to depressurize the cabin in hopes of starving the fire of oxygen. They remained depressurized for about 30 minutes. They had noticed the loss of communications and therefore pulled all communications related circuit breakers (they thought) and left them pulled for fear of starting another fire.

The cockpit crew had their pressure demand oxygen masks and equipment on good for up to 45,000 feet that they put on when they smelled smoke. Unfortunately, the passengers had only the drop-down diluter demand masks good to about 32,000 feet if you are in reasonable physical shape. The flight attendants probably put on their pressure demand walk around masks with oxygen bottles. The result was the majority, if not all of the back end passengers and flight attendants may not have survived, particularly the passengers. They died of asphyxiation due to hypoxia.

The cockpit crew was able to confirm that the fire was out in the E&E bay by inspection. They then re-pressurized the cabin and remained at 36,000 feet flying towards the airports and VAMPI in hopes of finding a lighted airport at what is now about 0200 Malaysian time. No luck with any lighted airports, so they pressed ahead thinking that they were safe and had enough fuel for another 6 hours or so until daylight.

From VAMPI, they flew northwest to the SAMAK waypoint and turned south. About three minutes after the turn, they saw the #1 (left) engine begin to spool down, a low oil pressure warning came on, and then the engine fire warning came on. They initiated the engine fire procedures and was able to put out the fire out by slowing down and using the engine fire extinguishers. This took about 12 minutes. With one engine operating, they were able to maintain about 19,000 feet at the gross weight they had.

Based on the calculations and simulator flying I have done to date, as well as single engine performance charts from the flight manual, I believe, but yet to prove fully to myself, that they made the 1829 and 1940 Inmarsat arc crossover times on time with this scenario. Further, I believe the had enough single engine performance and fuel on board to end up at the 0011 Inmarsat arc (last one) about 225 nm northeast of where the ATSB was looking based on the black box "pings." See attached overview of the flight profile.

Regards,
Stew Stoddart

[stewball5]

Originally Posted by Gclark8

A new post on MH370 is up at Duncan Steel | Space Scientist, Author & Broadcaster


STATEMENT FROM AN INDEPENDENT MH370 INVESTIGATION TEAM
Shortly after the disappearance of MH370 on March 8th, an informal group of people with diverse technical backgrounds came together on-line to discuss the event and analyze the specific technical information that had been released, with the individuals sharing reference material and their experience with aircraft and satellite systems. While there remain a number of uncertainties and some disagreements as to the interpretation of aspects of the data, our best estimates of a location of the aircraft at 00:11UT (the last ping ring) cluster in the Indian Ocean near 36.02S, 88.57E. This location is consistent with an averagegroundspeed of approximately 470kts and the wind conditions at the time. The exact location is dependent on specific assumptions as to the flight path before 18:38UT. The range of locations, based on reasonable variations in the earlier flight path result in the cluster of results shown. We recommend that the search for MH370 be focused in this area.

We welcome any additional information that can be released to us by the accident investigation team that would allow us to refine our models and our predictions. We offer to work directly with the investigation team, to share our work, to collaborate on further work, or to contribute in any way that can aid the investigation. Additional information relating to our analysis will be posted on Duncan Steel | Space Scientist, Author & Broadcaster and TMF Associates MSS blog. A report of the assumptions and approaches used to calculate the estimated location is being prepared and will be published to these web sites in the near future.
The following individuals have agreed to be publicly identified with this statement, to represent the larger collective that has contributed to this work, and to make themselves available to assist with the investigation in any constructive way. Other members prefer to remain anonymous, but their contributions are gratefully acknowledged. We prefer that contact be made through the organizations who have published this statement.

Brian Anderson, BE: Havelock North, New Zealand;
Sid Bennett, MEE: Chicago, Illinois, USA;
Curon Davies, MA: Swansea, UK;
Michael Exner, MEE: Colorado, USA;
Tim Farrar, PhD: Menlo Park, California, USA;
Richard Godfrey, BSc: Frankfurt, Germany;
Bill Holland, BSEE: Cary, North Carolina, USA;
Geoff Hyman, MSc: London, UK;
Victor Iannello, ScD: Roanoke, Virginia, USA;
Duncan Steel, PhD: Wellington, New Zealand.

Gclark8 Do you know the winds aloft that were used and the source(s)? Thanks.

Regards,
Stew Stoddart

[IdoraKeeper]

You guys have done a good job of figuring out the likely track of the aircraft. I must suggest however that a fire in the E&E compartment as the initial problem is not as likely as a cargo fire. There was likely intense smoke and fumes in the cabin that became fire in the cabin after the sustaining charge failed to to keep the fire suppressed. If the E&E compartment was compromised it was only later after the fire worked its way forward. Inflight fire on aircraft with mechanical or hydraulic flight controls has resulted in the loss or near loss of transport category aircraft. 777 is fly by wire...this is the first likely fire with these flight controls. It may be that enough flight control channels remained available for the autopilot to control the flight path long after the crew succumbed to smoke and fumes. The engine fire need not be what Saucy saw. It could be just a horrible long lasting fire that consumed the aircraft over a long period without getting into the E&E or the center tank. It just flew to fuel exhaustion or until control or structure was sufficiently compromised to cause it to impact the ocean. My sincere sympathy to the families. The aircraft must be found.

[Wotname]

Well as it seems this thread has drifted into the realms of what might have happened, I might as well chip in. I can't offer any reasons for this mystery but I can pick large holes in those presented in the last few posts.

The loss of communications transmissions (VHF / HF / Mode S Transponder) was either catastrophic or man induced. It is inconceivable (at least to me) that it could be gradual. Let's assume for a moment the flight crew is functional and there is some very serious emergency (fire or whatever), they would deal with the issue and communicate the same. If the voice comms went down, they would still use the Mode S transponder to advise of the emergency. If the Transponders failed first, they would be use voice comms or perhaps ACARS to advise of the same.

This didn't happen!

The only reasons this would not happen are:

1. Total catastrophic failure of the all comms - presumably a very serious issue in the E&E compartment or near total electrical failure.

or

2. Failure of both transponders plus flight crew incapacitated (thus preventing voice comms)

or

3. Intentional deactivation of all comms by flight crew (or others)

We know that all comms ceased about the same time the aircraft deviated from its original flight plan. As all the above scenarios are highly improbable yet one must have eventuated, I think it is pointless trying to speculate what happened, what is useful (IMO) is to calculate the location of the crash site.

However if I was forced to speculate, my guess is that a significant technical event occurred taking out all comms, the flight crew response included the abrupt change in flightplan and they were then incapacitated by the consequences of the initial event resulting in aircraft flying on until fuel exhaustion. I do understand there are other possibilities but I believe alternate theories are slightly more improbable than that which I have suggested.

One troubling aspect of my theory is if whatever technical event that shut down the all the comms, why did the IMARSAT continue pinging. All the other comms are spread over several different power supplies, so it should be expected that whatever took out the other comm systems, the IMARSAT would also be taken out. At this stage my only explanation is that the other comms where deliberately deactivated by persons unknown and they were not aware that the IMARSAT would continue to hand shake automatically every hour. They had assumed they had deactivated all the transmitting radios. There are of course, just as many holes with this theory as any of the others - which is why the world at large remains perplexed.

Yes, understatement I know.

[Armchair Pilot]

It might be possible that by the time that Saucy saw the aircraft, a fire had burnt a hole in the fuselage towards the front of the plane and the smoke issuing from that hole was illuminated by the burning interior of the plane through the windows. If this was the case there wouldn't have be very many people left alive at this point...

[IdoraKeeper]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Well as it seems this thread has drifted into the realms of what might have happened, I might as well chip in. I can't offer any reasons for this mystery but I can pick large holes in those presented in the last few posts.

The loss of communications transmissions (VHF / HF / Mode S Transponder) was either catastrophic or man induced. It is inconceivable (at least to me) that it could be gradual. Let's assume for a moment the flight crew is functional and there is some very serious emergency (fire or whatever), they would deal with the issue and communicate the same. If the voice comms went down, they would still use the Mode S transponder to advise of the emergency. If the Transponders failed first, they would be use voice comms or perhaps ACARS to advise of the same.

This didn't happen!

The only reasons this would not happen are:

1. Total catastrophic failure of the all comms - presumably a very serious issue in the E&E compartment or near total electrical failure.

or

2. Failure of both transponders plus flight crew incapacitated (thus preventing voice comms)

or

3. Intentional deactivation of all comms by flight crew (or others)

We know that all comms ceased about the same time the aircraft deviated from its original flight plan. As all the above scenarios are highly improbable yet one must have eventuated, I think it is pointless trying to speculate what happened, what is useful (IMO) is to calculate the location of the crash site.

However if I was forced to speculate, my guess is that a significant technical event occurred taking out all comms, the flight crew response included the abrupt change in flightplan and they were then incapacitated by the consequences of the initial event resulting in aircraft flying on until fuel exhaustion. I do understand there are other possibilities but I believe alternate theories are slightly more improbable than that which I have suggested.

One troubling aspect of my theory is if whatever technical event that shut down the all the comms, why did the IMARSAT continue pinging. All the other comms are spread over several different power supplies, so it should be expected that whatever took out the other comm systems, the IMARSAT would also be taken out. At this stage my only explanation is that the other comms where deliberately deactivated by persons unknown and they were not aware that the IMARSAT would continue to hand shake automatically every hour. They had assumed they had deactivated all the transmitting radios. There are of course, just as many holes with this theory as any of the others - which is why the world at large remains perplexed.

Yes, understatement I know.

Saucy saw an aircraft on fire. The transponder off points to human intervention. No captain is going to make things up and climb to put out a fire. He would follow the smoke removal checklist and proceed at the speed of heat to adequate pavement. The crew more might have mistaken the smell of a burning pallet of batteries for an E&E fire and run the wrong checklist.. The best thing is to find the plane and get the facts.

[Gclark8]

The BBC Horizon video:

BBC Horizon Where is Flight MH370? BBC Full Documentary about Flight MH370 2014-2013 Horizon - YouTube

JACC Media Release today: Update on MH370 Search

Originally Posted by Gclark8

BBC just posted this a few hours back: BBC News - Malaysian MH370: Inmarsat confident on crash 'hotspot'

I suggest this may not be the answer, as it has been proven by Saucy's sighting and others that the aircraft has followed known IFR navigation way points.

The "Fugro Equator" has been on station in the Indian Ocean since the weekend, however public satellite tracking of the ship has been turned off since the 10th of June when the ship was in Bali. I would like to see some transparency in this new search.

I sincerely hope someone in the search team starts to think like a pilot and looks to the intersecting points of the known tracks (Cocos-Perth) and the ping rings, not just the hypothetical ping rings alone.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Jess928

Saucy,
at present I'm finding this slightly conflicting. If your 'orange' sighting behind the boat is believed to be a fire onboard MH370 as Stewart's flight plan suggests, how can the Inmarsat pings over the water several hours later and several hundred miles south east be explained by him?

I concur

Originally Posted by Armchair Pilot

It might be possible that by the time that Saucy saw the aircraft, a fire had burnt a hole in the fuselage towards the front of the plane and the smoke issuing from that hole was illuminated by the burning interior of the plane through the windows. If this was the case there wouldn't have be very many people left alive at this point...

I believe it is fairly well established that MH370 was still airbourne several hours after the time that Saucy saw something (possibly MH370). Unless of course, you chose to believe the INMARSAT evidence to be a hoax - not a view shared by most of us.