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Old 15-05-2007, 18:41   #16
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Chris Parker is the weather god but he is NOT predicting TS Berry...but he is predicting poor crossing conditions now and later this week. He gave good crossing conditions a few of days ago and subsequent reports from weather buoy stations validate that forecast opportunity which was missed.
He will err on the side of safety and tell you the options.
Right now both Chris and the NWS are predicting conditions that are not good for a crossing through the weekend.
My experience with the NWS and bad weather is that they keep adjusting their forecast to be just a little bit worse with each subsequent forecast until they finally get it right about 24 hours in advance. (Most of the time)
My guess is that conditions will be more severe than NWS is right now predicting (NE15-20k) and Chris' prediction of a deeper low will prove correct. Lets see what Friday brings!
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Old 15-05-2007, 18:57   #17
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Quote:
My experience with the NWS and bad weather is that they keep adjusting their forecast to be just a little bit worse with each subsequent forecast until they finally get it right about 24 hours in advance. (Most of the time)
Yup, any forecast will get more and more accurate as you get closer, that is why I like making last minute decisions: Get the most up to date weather that way.

This is the latest (17:40 EST)

Wednesday
East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.


---------------------------------

Looking good for tomorrow.
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Old 15-05-2007, 19:15   #18
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Cheer up Bob. The weather has been crap all over the country for a month. Lucky you weren't in a flood, on fire or trashed by a tornado. Your window will come and den you be in de islands mon. Have fun !
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Old 15-05-2007, 19:24   #19
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Hey Larry,

Haven't heard from you in a while. Just got back to Toronto today, left the boat in FL. The weather is great. Actually it was until a front came in from Michigan this afternoon. Ran into Andrea in FL, wierd weather this spring, hope it's not an indication of what summer'll be like.
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Old 16-05-2007, 11:46   #20
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Not too sure about Chris Parker being the weather god. Predicting weather is iffy at best and I have seen Chris miss the mark by a wide margin on more that one occasion. NO ONE SOURCE should be used. gather as much info as timely as possible from as many sources that are available and when they are ALL pretty much in agreement you PROBABLY are OK. If the forecasts vary and are confusing, stay put.
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Old 16-05-2007, 12:23   #21
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Looks like the weather window is closing...

Quote:
THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE
CHOP. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 6
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 8 FEET IN
THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET
NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 10 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

Seem that tomorrow morning should give the best ride.
If they forecast seas 2 to 3 feet, reality could be 3-4, or 2 and less. I usually stick my nose out there and sample some...One can always turn back. Have done so on 3 occasions over the last 4 years.

National Weather Service
Generated 1815 UTC, Wednesday, May 16, 2007
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Old 16-05-2007, 13:18   #22
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Uh, you mean the weather window that never opened is closing?
Have been told by the police that we need to leave tomorrow AM. We are heading to Lake Worth, unlike No Name, if we're stuck there for another week, at least we can resupply ... besides, I've never spent any time in Lake Worth, may be interesting to explore while we wait.

Cat'n Lar,
weather has been crap here for much more than a month ... closer to 8 months by my account. Still, I am indeed thankful that I have only been inconveinenced and not harmed. Have lived through forest fires, tornadoes & Earth quakes ...seriously appreciative of what I have had.
Dag,
This Cape Dory is one amazing little boat, handles the worst of what I have seen better than any boat around me. Having said that ... I don't enjoy getting the **** kicked out of me. If I never again in life saw a wave over 4'... I would be a happy camper. Perhaps you have some macho viking thing going ... not me buddy, I'm more of a Margaritaville type! As for watching the West coast of Africa for tropical waves? Andrea formed off the coast of South Carolina, and looks like Barry is going to form over the Bahamas ... better start thinkin' "outside the box" quickly.
Bob
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Old 16-05-2007, 14:22   #23
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Well Bob, I see this as "window"

Quote:
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
If ya pull the hook 0500 tomorrow morning, odds are ya will have a good ride...No guarantees however.

Nah, I don't have a macho attitude or a death wish, I like easy crossings as well..But to sit and wait for the perfect crossing could take a while.

I like to go South to Miami or Key Biscayne and cross from there to Bimini or Cat/Gun. Makes for shorter days, usually 9 hours or so. The windows can be a bit narrower then. (with a shorter crossing.)

As for storms forming locally: Yes, yes.. The killer hurricanes however seem to form over distant shores, then pick up strength as they come this way.

Andrea kicked up to 45 knots then petered out.
Don't know about Barry: Before I posted last night I looked at the NOAA web site for tropical storms and saw nothing.
IF I was preparing for a crossing however, I would look more closely of course, I would also crank up my NAVTEX and pay attention to it.

I plan to leave Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday and head South, then eyeball any kind of windows for a crossing.
(My wife is also the Margarittaville type of cruiser and she likes it flat as a pancake out there....She squaked once when we crossed in 6 feet waves: She swore to God and to the devil that she was going to divorce me as soon as we got to Bimini..In the middle of the Gulf Stream however it settled down and the boat found the "groove". It got almost pleasant and she never mentioned the divorce anymore...That being said, I am careful picking windows with the 'ol lady onboard: If she gets miserable, then the whole trip gets miserable.

Crossing with the boys however we easily go in 4 to 6, but of course try to avoid it if we have more days off to spare, so as to wait for a window.)
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Old 16-05-2007, 15:14   #24
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Yup "5to10 out of the E" CMAN station say's ... 27 out of the NE, as of 11 minutes ago ... and building.
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Old 16-05-2007, 17:50   #25
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Hey Rick ! Raining like crazy here ! Winds N or NE most of the time. Apparently you sent your "Toronto Spring" down on us. Snowed in northern Maine. Boat is in the water. Weather for the weekend is crap with winds N crap and maybe improving crap late Sunday. Spring ! Welcome back !
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Old 16-05-2007, 17:55   #26
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The forecast CSY Man is quoting is one of the reasons folks get into trouble making the crossing. The near shore and ICW forecasts will not in most cases be what you will encounter in the Straits. The winds will most always be from a different direction because of land influence and the wind strength and seas will be higher in the stream. The Gulfstream itself can generate it's own weather systems. You need to look at the OFFSHORE and High Seas forecast.
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Old 16-05-2007, 18:33   #27
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Tonight I agree with Wahoo...not a good time to go. Who needs to bash into East winds that are stronger than predicted by 10Knts.

Wahoo...when you anchor at the north end of Lake worth and take your dinghy to the bridge by the creek to provision...be ure to lock both dink and motor...many thefts there. Excellent provisioning at the publix, GREAT pizza across the street from publix and a west marine there too. Way better than Lake Sylvie and a shorter...easier crossing too.
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Old 16-05-2007, 19:08   #28
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Posting this reply, primarily because i don't know when I will next have a connection.
This is what the forum is all about ... sharing information. Making life better for your fellow sailor if you can. Looking forward to Lake Worth, but not the 20 bridges between here & there. Just looked up Rivera Beach city Marina ... Geez, looks like a nice spot. Wishing all well, fair winds.
Bob
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Old 16-05-2007, 19:29   #29
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DUDE, RELAX!

Would you rather there were not bridges between here and there?

Stop bringing me down, man. Sheesh...
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Old 16-05-2007, 20:42   #30
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Quote:
The forecast CSY Man is quoting is one of the reasons folks get into trouble making the crossing. The near shore and ICW forecasts will not in most cases be what you will encounter in the Straits. The winds will most always be from a different direction because of land influence and the wind strength and seas will be higher in the stream. The Gulfstream itself can generate it's own weather systems. You need to look at the OFFSHORE and High Seas forecast.
Aye thanks for the heads up proffesor, but any forecast I listen to and publish here is for 60 NM to the East, including the Territorial waters of the Bahamas. AND including the Gulf Stream.
I don't get in trouble by looking at the wrong area or wrong forecast, and I certainly would not do it for anybody else.

Quote:
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF OUT TO 60
NM
Don't jump to conclusions on my behalf..(Wrong waters, wrong forecast.)

Quote:
Yup "5to10 out of the E" CMAN station say's ... 27 out of the NE, as of 11 minutes ago ... and building.
Ha, not my forecast, blame the NOAA if ya are unhappy.
That being said, some un-expected 27 knot winds would most likely be associated with a local thunderstorm or rain shower, not the general forcast.

At any rate, the forecast I quoted was for tomorrow morning, not this evening.
As always, the forecast could be wrong, that is why I always stick my nose out there to look see, and sometimes turn back if indeed it is wrong..Or keep on going if it looks better than what the Man said.

Never take them forecasts as the script in the bible:
It could be better and it could be worse.

Get a recording barometer and learn some weather basics to back up the forecast.

This is the latest revision to the forcast: it keeps changing...As of 29 minuttes ago anyway:

Quote:
THURSDAY
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET
IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NEAR SHORE...SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS
2 TO 4 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS
2 TO 4 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Good luck to the fleet in Lake Sylvia and we may see you out there:

We are going to try early next week but way too early right now to plan or even look at a rough forecast...It will change several times in the next 6 days.
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