Not sure about the math...was going to do some myself this evening but got lazy.
As i remember meburma, you had a fair wind
...not as light as this...and seasickness onboard. Plus 7.5 is a pretty max stretch for that size boat...hitting top hull speed
The big clue for me is the consistent course and speed on the track, which indicated to me she was motoring for a bit. You can check the GRIBS right now for instance and see what the "perceived" weather
is like..and that puff above the island etc...
She definitely is hitting the sail...crazy adjustment I think to get away from the lee...but I think she is back in the slot headed for the point:
PassageWeather - Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers
When you do the post game
interview you can ask her:
"So, what really happened off of Cedros when you changed course headed easterly?"