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Old 25-08-2008, 10:57   #1
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Tropical depression 7

For those of us in Florida who are just starting to dry out, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?5day#contents

And I just put my awnings back up yesterday!!
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Old 25-08-2008, 11:07   #2
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Dr. Jeff Masters has a really good tropical weather Blog on the Weather Underground site http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at

Here's what he says about TD 7:

"The latest (2 am EDT Monday) GFDL forecast appears believable--and presents a strong case of deja vu. It's an almost exact repeat of Fay's track. The GFDL predicts 94L will continue to move northwest and hit the Haiti/Dominican Republic region on Tuesday, then get turned to the west by a strengthening ridge of high pressure. The storm will cross over to eastern Cuba on Wednesday, then travel along the length of Cuba through Friday night. On Saturday, the GFDL has 94L popping off the coast of Cuba at the same spot Fay did, then intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane that moves over Key West towards a landfall in Southwest Florida."

(emphasis added)
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Old 25-08-2008, 13:10   #3
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3 hours after changing from 94L to Tropical Depression 7, it's now Tropical Storm Gustav.
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Old 25-08-2008, 14:07   #4
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Old 25-08-2008, 14:15   #5
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Damn, here we go again!

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hur...m=2&type=track

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Old 25-08-2008, 14:18   #6
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Damn, here we go again!

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hur...m=2&type=track

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I'm not sure where intellicast is getting their information, but that track is quite a bit different from the national hurricane center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?3day#contents
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Old 25-08-2008, 14:21   #7
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Good thing I haven't put anything back to rights since Fay. But methinks this one will be stronger than Fay.

Ah well for the Tampa/St. Pete area we'll know more by the weekend.
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Old 25-08-2008, 14:37   #8
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The latest model runs move the track more westward compared to earlier. The Intellicast forecast track looks more like the GFDL model track. (source: wunderground.com)

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Old 25-08-2008, 15:23   #9
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We also follow Dr. Master's blog on Wunderground.com as HUD3 mentioned. We watched it constantly during Fay's tour of Florida. Also on that same site is a blog by StormW (Just below Jeff Master's blog). He also has very good information.

Looks like we will be hauling our boat out for the duration. We usually head up the Tombigbee, but with fuel prices and a lack of time, this is our next best option.

Let's hope Gustav doesn't gain much strength over the next few days.
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Old 25-08-2008, 15:33   #10
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If you believe the models, there's a real high probability that this one is going go south of Cuba and into the Gulf. I'm going to wait for tomorrow's update before making decisions.
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Old 25-08-2008, 16:36   #11
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I'm not sure where intellicast is getting their information, but that track is quite a bit different from the national hurricane center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?3day#contents

We seem to have the experts disagreeing...... not the first time.

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Old 26-08-2008, 03:12   #12
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The current tracking forecast maps (Intellicast & NOAA) seem about the same to me.
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Old 26-08-2008, 04:18   #13
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The predicted storm track is moving away from Florida. Look out Mexico and Texas.
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Old 26-08-2008, 05:14   #14
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I like the way all the models part and go around Cayman.
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Old 26-08-2008, 05:25   #15
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I like the way all the models part and go around Cayman.
It does kind of make one wonder...
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