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Old 21-04-2015, 01:50   #1
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The Power of Persistence

Yes, while it certainly takes persistence to cross an ocean, I'm referring to a difference type of persistence, persistence as it relates to weather forecast skill.:socool:

Reading this article this morning from the April 17, 2015 edition of Science News, I thought it would illustrate the impact persistence has on a weather forecast.
Onshore hurricanes in a slump

Record-breaking nine years have elapsed since last Category 3 or stronger hurricane made landfall in the United States.

12:36PM, APRIL 17, 2015

No major hurricanes have slammed into the coast of the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. The gap in these hurricanes making landfall is the longest in recorded history and is incredibly rare, researchers report.

Many hurricanes in recent years have reached Category 3 or above while out to sea, but theyíve all fizzled into weaker storms before coming ashore. The landfall drought is probably a temporary run of good luck rather than a climate shift.

The researchers estimate that thereís a 61 percent chance the drought will continue through this year.

9 seasons = Number of hurricane seasons since a Category 3 or stronger hurricane made landfall in the United States

177 years = Average number of years between landfall droughts lasting nine or more seasons

A link to the rest of the article:

I have promised to publish a post about weather and weather forecasting. That post will be titled, Weather or Not, but this is not that.

This is more a little teaser, an appetizer. The above quote was taken from the most recent on-line edition of Science News, an absolutely wonderful magazine that now comes out every other week, as the on-line portion has gotten bigger.

Having read SN for more than 20 years, I've always looked forward to what juicy bits it would contain each week.

Iíve quoted the above portion because it highlights something that I will talk about extensively in my post, the power of persistence. So as the article above talks about how rare it is for the U.S. not to have a Cat 3, or greater, hurricane landfall; we have already gone 9 seasons without one.

These researchers still prognosticate that there is still an above even chance, 61%, that we will not have a landfall this upcoming season also.

Iím sure thatís predicated on the power of persistence. So even though this is far out of the ordinary, (no landfall), persistence is still hard to beat when it comes to forecasting.

In my upcoming post, Weather or Not, I will discuss: the impact of persistence on a forecast, how to evaluate the quality of a weather forecast, how a forecaster can be right 95% of the time; but still not make good forecasts and most of all, how you, the cruiser, should or should not use said forecast.

Stay tuned.
Richard on M/Y Dauntless
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Old 24-04-2015, 17:51   #2
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Re: The Power of Persistence

Thanks for the info. Very interesting study.
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