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Old 10-05-2007, 03:42   #1
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Subtropical Storm ANDREA

The first named storm of the year formed Wednesday off the southeastern U.S. coast, more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters said.

Subtropical Storm Andrea had top sustained winds around 45 mph Wednesday afternoon and didn’t appear to be much of a threat, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Still, a tropical storm watch was issued for parts of Georgia and Florida, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

From “Subtropical Storm ANDREA”: National Hurricane Center

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.0W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 2 KT

***

From the thread “Flying Colours Missing after Distress Call”
Flying Colours Missing after Distress Call

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Originally Posted by Pblais
More eyes and ears connected to this forum would explain it more. CF helps a great deal with many things but alas not out there where it would be most helpful. I'm afraid reporting news and events is as good as we can do. Many are indeed interested if not very concerned. What is now called Andrea was here for the past few days. This isn't an easy storm to contend with and out in the Gulf Stream I don't imagine it is any less dangerous. Cold north winds counter to a warm northern flow current isn't the stuff of fair afternoon sailing.
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Old 10-05-2007, 03:48   #2
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Me thinks it could be an active year along the Atlantic Seaboard, as well as the Gulf. I would not be surprised to see some significant weather up here in New England this year.
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Old 10-05-2007, 05:03   #3
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I'm feeling the same way, exactly.

We'll see something come up the East Coast this year I think. We had that little Ernesto thing last year.
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Old 10-05-2007, 05:52   #4
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andrea is sub tropical .. caused by a cold front. not in any way related to a tropical storm or a hurricane. actually this could be good sign that colder temps will prevail thru the summer.
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Old 10-05-2007, 12:53   #5
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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2007

We have increased our forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, largely due to the rapid dissipation of El Niño conditions. We are now calling for a very active hurricane season. Landfall probabilities for the 2007 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages.
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Old 10-05-2007, 14:32   #6
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The first BC ferry , built in Germany, was launched there recently. They are designed for very protected waters only, yet they plan to leave Germany for the Caribean mid october, hurricane season, with a worse than normal hurricane season forecast, then up the Oregon coast november ,the worst month of the year for storms there. They have two more to go. What are the odds of any making it to BC?
It should be interesting.
Brent
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Old 10-05-2007, 18:04   #7
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Guys,
TS Andrea has my full attention, as we plan to leave Lake Sylvia (Fort Lauderdale) at midnight tomorrow. ALL forecasts ... let me repeat that ALL forecasts call for an ideal crossing to West End. If anybody knows different/ better .... please let me know, 5 boats leaving.
Bob
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Old 10-05-2007, 18:13   #8
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Well in all respects that count Andrea acted like more of a nor'easter as it went through here. Under normal circumstances it would have trashed New England instead of going the way it did. I wouldn't try to predict the whole 2007 season by it. Based on the same logic 2006 should have been a very bad year and it was not.
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Old 10-05-2007, 19:52   #9
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Wahoo...everything I can find says you should have a great crossing. Good luck!
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Old 11-05-2007, 18:43   #10
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The first day out of Boot Key Harbor, we were supposed to have 5-10 knot winds ... they were 20-25 knots, and we proceeded to get beat up pretty badly. The day we left No Name harbor ... it was an exact repeat, except that we didn't stay outside, we turned around & came back in.
After those 2 experiences, we decided to check everything weatherwise to the very best of our abilities. Looked at Barometer Bob's site, listened to Chris Parker (who advised someone else to make the crossing this evening) looked at NOAA, Weather.com & weatherunderground.com. Everybody & everything made it look like a go for sure ... 5-10 knot winds out of the SW, seas 2' or less ... doesn't get any better right?
A couple of things wrong with this picture. First of all, the remnants of Andrea are right there ... I mean, this thing was big and doing 45mph ... it didn't just vanish. Next, the wind here in Lake Sylvia has been coming UP ... I'm recording 10mph in a sheltered portion, a friend of mine is more exposed and he's seeing the low 20's ... at the same time weather.com shows 6mph .... ??? Something Chris Parker suggested this morning, checking the CMAN buoy info ... OK, Fowey Rocks, 5-10 and decreasing right? Try 26.5 and climbing, settlement point? 22.5 and climbing.
Needless to say, we're not making the crossing tonight. I mention all of this, not in an effort to blame any forecasters, but to point out to forum members how easy it is to be mislead ..... icing on the cake? NOAA just announced a band of "strong thunder showers" with winds 40-50 between West Palm Beach and Grand Bahama.
Bob
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Old 11-05-2007, 19:11   #11
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Quote:
NOAA just announced a band of "strong thunder showers" with winds 40-50 between West Palm Beach and Grand Bahama.
In your situation you check all the forecasts then do the best you can to check actual conditions. It is easy to be misled. If you are talking about a weather window as in a few hours from now I think you can make your own forecast as well as any forecaster. It gets a lot harder when it's 4 days out. Beyond that it becomes more of a fantasy you buy or you don't.

Don't make your forecast any farther out than required and when the real information at the buoy is telling you real time then it beats someone else in an office. Waiting for your own time of choosing is never a bad idea. Waiting isn't that hard considering what you avoided today.
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Old 11-05-2007, 19:27   #12
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Paul,
Have to agree with you 100%. First rule of weather forecasting is .... LOOK OUT THE WINDOW! We need about 12 hours to make the crossing ... and we're all a bunch of old farts ... no heros here, so we want not just a "fair" crossing, we want a "good" one. Can't tell ya how happy we are that we pulled the plug on tonight. The only fly in the ointment is that there are 2 MORE cold fronts headed this way .... when's it gonna end?
Bob
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Old 11-05-2007, 21:53   #13
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Buoy Winds are back down to 15 and West SW which would have made them feel like less than 10 knots at Fowey Rocks and Settlement Point is down to 10. You shoudda gone...trust Chris P!!
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Old 12-05-2007, 01:39   #14
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You could go to the beach a take a look for ‘walking elephants’. If the horizon isn’t a flat line, the straights are still pretty lumpy.
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Old 12-05-2007, 15:51   #15
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I wouldn' th ave expected 2006, an el Nino year, to be bad in the caribean, as el nino keeps the warm water east.
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