The first day out of Boot Key Harbor, we were supposed to have 5-10 knot
winds ... they were 20-25 knots, and we proceeded to get beat up pretty badly. The day we left No Name harbor ... it was an exact repeat, except that we didn't stay outside, we turned around & came back in.
After those 2 experiences, we decided to check everything weatherwise to the very best of our abilities. Looked at Barometer Bob's site, listened to Chris Parker (who advised someone else to make the crossing this evening) looked at NOAA, Weather
.com & weatherunderground.com. Everybody & everything made it look like a go for sure ... 5-10 knot
winds out of the SW, seas 2' or less ... doesn't get any better right?
A couple of things wrong with this picture. First of all, the remnants of Andrea are right there
... I mean, this thing was big and doing 45mph ... it didn't just vanish. Next, the wind
here in Lake Sylvia has been coming UP ... I'm recording 10mph in a sheltered portion, a friend of mine is more exposed and he's seeing the low 20's ... at the same time weather.com shows 6mph .... ??? Something Chris Parker suggested this morning, checking the CMAN buoy info ... OK, Fowey Rocks, 5-10 and decreasing right? Try 26.5 and climbing, settlement point? 22.5 and climbing.
Needless to say, we're not making the crossing tonight. I mention all of this, not in an effort to blame any forecasters, but to point out to forum members how easy it is to be mislead ..... icing on the cake? NOAA just announced a band of "strong thunder showers" with winds 40-50 between West Palm Beach and Grand Bahama.