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Old 26-12-2010, 08:17   #61
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Don,

There have been many who miss represented, or miss understood, or otherwise gave out bad info. That does not mean that all info is bad.

Because oil did not run out in 1984, or 2010 does not mean it will not run out some time in the future. Just when, and at what rate, the who gets have money to buy what is left, and how it unravels are all open questions.

But such conservative groups as the German, and US military are looking at the effects of oil depletion. Its damn hard to convert a cruiser from diesel to natural gas, or a helicopter for that matter. So, if they are taking it seriously I think it bears consideration.
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Old 26-12-2010, 10:58   #62
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I don't believe that oil well ever 'run out' totaly. There will always be undiscovered pockets of the stuff or places where it's just to hard to get at.

What I feel will happen is that the cost of oil will continue to rise overall, due to the world market and the increasing expence and difficulty of simply getting at it. This will lead to a time where other forms of energy overtake oil in terms of affordabilty. Things like nuclear power, hydrogen fuel cells, renuable energy (wind, wave, solar, geo thermal, etc.) will take over for the mainstream as they either solve their safety issues (nuclear, possibly even moving onto clean proper fussion power), or their price comes down to affordable levels (hydrogen fuel cells, better cheaper batteries, etc.).

The simple fact is that sail is slow, inefficient and unrelible. To cruisers that doesn't matter, to the commercial world, it does.
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Old 26-12-2010, 14:48   #63
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Leaving the economy as in being shipped to whomever we are buying the stuff from: Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia.
If they charge us $2.50 a gallon we pay them $2.50 a gallon.
If they charge us $5.00 a gallon we pay them $5.00 a gallon.
That is money leaving OUR (US, EU, China, etc.) economy.
In essence you are talking about the mythical "Balance of Payments" where the USA buys stuff from overseas and then pays for it with USA Dollars. If the USA does not purchase the same dollar amount from that particular country then it is said we have a "Deficit in the Balance of Payments."
- - Okay - only one huge problem with that myth - The USA is not on the gold standard anymore - We pay for everything with USA Dollars. There are mega trillions of "greenbacks" or their "representative equivalent(numbers in an accounting ledger)."
- - So what does say Saudi Arabia get for the oil they send us -> USA Dollars. What can they do with them? They cannot eat them, they cannot plant them for food or mine them for minerals. And they make lousy wall-paper. So what they do is to use them to buy goods from Japan or Europe. So Saudi gives the USA Dollars to say - Japan - for something Saudi wants from Japan.
- - What does Japan do with the USA Dollars - same can't's - so they use them to buy goods from another country. And on and on it goes, that USA Dollar wending its way from one country to another.
- - What that Dollar actually is - is a representation/promise of value - but (and a big "but") that USA Dollar is in fact totally worthless to any and everybody until it returns to the USA. The foreign entities have to "buy" something from the USA before that USA Dollar has any real value. It has to return to its source and be exchanged for something "hard" before it becomes more than just an accounting notation.
- - The more USA Dollars floating around the world the better for the USA - we are getting "hard goods/energy" in exchange for "paper promises."
- - The big question occupying world economists is how long can this "paper promise" house of cards continue to exist before it collapses. Nobody knows and they are all watching attentively.
- - Another good reason to buy a sailboat and start cruising - hopefully with a good supply of gold bars in the keel.
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Old 26-12-2010, 14:57   #64
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In the event of major catastophes......those who are prepared will survive.

Some will have foodstocks put away......Temporary

Some will know how to forage (a very few)
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Old 26-12-2010, 15:03   #65
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Originally Posted by osirissail View Post
- - The more USA Dollars floating around the world the better for the USA - we are getting "hard goods/energy" in exchange for "paper promises."
- - The big question occupying world economists is how long can this "paper promise" house of cards continue to exist before it collapses. Nobody knows and they are all watching attentively.
- - Another good reason to buy a sailboat and start cruising - hopefully with a good supply of gold bars in the keel.
No disagreement here. I think you just moved the description on a little further.
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Old 26-12-2010, 15:05   #66
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In the event of major catastophes......those who are prepared will survive.

Some will have foodstocks put away......Temporary

Some will know how to forage (a very few)
To this I would add:

Some will be flexible and adapt. That is where I think the sailboat comes in, it allows you a great deal of flexibility.

Now, just exactly what was the title of this thread? Oh yeah, Return of Commercial Shipping.
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Old 26-12-2010, 15:44   #67
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Interesting thread. I'd like to see the "Transglobal highway" built in my lifetime. Leave the container ships for the islands.

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Old 27-12-2010, 15:39   #68
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Interesting thread. I'd like to see the "Transglobal highway" built in my lifetime. Leave the container ships for the islands.

That's Trans-global SUPERhighway my friend!
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Old 28-12-2010, 08:44   #69
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Don,

There have been many who miss represented, or miss understood, or otherwise gave out bad info. That does not mean that all info is bad.

Because oil did not run out in 1984, or 2010 does not mean it will not run out some time in the future. Just when, and at what rate, the who gets have money to buy what is left, and how it unravels are all open questions.

But such conservative groups as the German, and US military are looking at the effects of oil depletion. Its damn hard to convert a cruiser from diesel to natural gas, or a helicopter for that matter. So, if they are taking it seriously I think it bears consideration.
The amount of oil we currently know about, is now in the trillions. To say we are going to run the planet out of oil makes as much sense as saying we are going to run the planet out of rocks. That said just because the oil is down there doesn't mean it will be cheap or even politically viable to extract it. (Like the current US offshore drilling ban). The era of cheap oil is likely over forever.
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Old 28-12-2010, 18:30   #70
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The amount of oil we currently know about, is now in the trillions. To say we are going to run the planet out of oil makes as much sense as saying we are going to run the planet out of rocks. That said just because the oil is down there doesn't mean it will be cheap or even politically viable to extract it. (Like the current US offshore drilling ban). The era of cheap oil is likely over forever.
I'm not too sure about the "trillions", but if it cost more to extract a gallon than a gallon is worth in the market place it really doesn't matter how many gallons we think there are.
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Old 29-12-2010, 07:10   #71
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. . . The era of cheap oil is likely over forever.
"Cheap oil" is a largely unknown thing. What is "cheap?" Given the public price of a barrel of crude oil as being somewhere around US$1/gallon (+/-) and we are paying from US$3/gal (+/-) in the USA and US$6.50/gal (+/-) in Europe - "they" (love that indefinite pronoun) could double the cost of crude and have little effect on the "pump price" unless the oil companies want to multiply their profits artificially. I think they did that not too many years ago and got called on it.
- - I would prefer to say that access to "easy oil" is going to be more difficult just like access to "easy women" is getting more difficult, especially in the USA. Or at least in the CF thread about women and issues.
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Old 29-12-2010, 08:23   #72
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This thread has really spun off into another region!

My take on the crude oil situation? Thanks, glad you asked......

North America has more oil in the ground than the rest of the world combined. The cheeky bastages who control it, have got the Middle East to sell theirs for a pittance, and have the Pacific Rim thoroughly "hooked" (think of the crack dealer who gives out "free" samples to young kids). Eventually the sandbox will come up dry, as will the North Sea, Venezuela, etc.....

Guess what? When North America has the ONLY oil, all the dollars will flow back 10x fold. The oil barrons will be rich beyond rich... modern royalty! The middle class, long gone, will just be so much cannon fodder.
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Old 29-12-2010, 08:29   #73
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Guess what? When North America has the ONLY oil, all the dollars will flow back 10x fold. The oil barrons will be rich beyond rich... modern royalty! The middle class, long gone, will just be so much cannon fodder.
I'm planning ahead. Learning Spanish and marrying Mexican Vive! Republica Americos!
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Old 29-12-2010, 08:37   #74
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I'm planning ahead. Learning Spanish and marrying Mexican Vive! Republica Americos!
My brother married a Mexican, my S/O is Canadian... we have it covered!
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Old 29-12-2010, 11:45   #75
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This thread has really spun off into another region!

My take on the crude oil situation? Thanks, glad you asked......

North America has more oil in the ground than the rest of the world combined. The cheeky bastages who control it, have got the Middle East to sell theirs for a pittance, and have the Pacific Rim thoroughly "hooked" (think of the crack dealer who gives out "free" samples to young kids). Eventually the sandbox will come up dry, as will the North Sea, Venezuela, etc.....

Guess what? When North America has the ONLY oil, all the dollars will flow back 10x fold. The oil barrons will be rich beyond rich... modern royalty! The middle class, long gone, will just be so much cannon fodder.
I'd be interesting in knowing the source of this information. Can you substantiate it or is this wishful thinking?
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