Possible mild el Nino year 2014

[rebel heart]

I just read a noaa update. Has better-than-normal odds of el Nino forming in the summer. They said if it forms it will be mild.

Weaker trades, more tropical moisture, affects global weather patterns.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I547 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[StuM]

Today's BOM ENSO Wrap-up: They are not giving odds yet.
(note they refer to Southern Hemisphere seasons so read "NH spring" for "austral autumn" and summer for winter):

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral, with climate models suggesting neutral conditions will persist at least until the end of the austral autumn. However, some warming of the Pacific is likely in the coming months.
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the austral autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models indicate central Pacific Ocean temperatures may approach El Niño levels by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, hence long-range outlooks should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Niño states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.

[robert sailor]

It was an El Nino year when it ook us 29 days from Mex-Haw

[FlyingCloud1937]

I first suckered into NOOA's El'Nino/La'Nina back in the 80's

What I still haven't found to this day is the yang(of El/la whatever).

Mother Earth always finds balance, so she does not do, one without the other.

I have looked for an Atlantic yang, never found it.(My guess is it is a combination of an Atlantic/Indian Ocean Yin/Yang, that is to the the El/La.

So I always watch the upper level JET STREAM.

The jet stream doesn't explain the missing Yin.

It just predicts earlier, what the "El/La" will cause, as far as weather patterns.

Lloyd

Originally Posted by rebel heart

I just read a noaa update. Has better-than-normal odds of el Nino forming in the summer. They said if it forms it will be mild.

Weaker trades, more tropical moisture, affects global weather patterns.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I547 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[atmartin]

Aside from weaker trades, what effects does El Nino have for a cruising boat in the area?

I understand more hurricanes occur in the Eastern Pacific during El Nino years, but what about weather/winds in the winter and spring months? More thuderstorms? Less wind overall? Bad Fishing?

I'm headed down south this year so I'm curious. Not really worried about it, just curious.

[seacap]

El Niño means a mild hurricane season in the Atlantic

[zeehag]

confirms my observations