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Old 10-02-2014, 18:15   #1
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Possible mild el Nino year 2014

I just read a noaa update. Has better-than-normal odds of el Nino forming in the summer. They said if it forms it will be mild.

Weaker trades, more tropical moisture, affects global weather patterns.

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Old 10-02-2014, 23:44   #2
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Re: Possible mild el Nino year 2014

Today's BOM ENSO Wrap-up: They are not giving odds yet.
(note they refer to Southern Hemisphere seasons so read "NH spring" for "austral autumn" and summer for winter):

The El Niņo–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral, with climate models suggesting neutral conditions will persist at least until the end of the austral autumn. However, some warming of the Pacific is likely in the coming months.
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the austral autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models indicate central Pacific Ocean temperatures may approach El Niņo levels by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, hence long-range outlooks should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Niņo states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.
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Old 10-02-2014, 23:59   #3
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Re: Possible mild el Nino year 2014

It was an El Nino year when it ook us 29 days from Mex-Haw
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Old 11-02-2014, 00:25   #4
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Re: Possible mild el Nino year 2014

I first suckered into NOOA's El'Nino/La'Nina back in the 80's

What I still haven't found to this day is the yang(of El/la whatever).

Mother Earth always finds balance, so she does not do, one without the other.

I have looked for an Atlantic yang, never found it.(My guess is it is a combination of an Atlantic/Indian Ocean Yin/Yang, that is to the the El/La.

So I always watch the upper level JET STREAM.

The jet stream doesn't explain the missing Yin.

It just predicts earlier, what the "El/La" will cause, as far as weather patterns.

Lloyd


Quote:
Originally Posted by rebel heart View Post
I just read a noaa update. Has better-than-normal odds of el Nino forming in the summer. They said if it forms it will be mild.

Weaker trades, more tropical moisture, affects global weather patterns.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I547 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
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Old 16-02-2014, 15:01   #5
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Re: Possible mild el Nino year 2014

Aside from weaker trades, what effects does El Nino have for a cruising boat in the area?

I understand more hurricanes occur in the Eastern Pacific during El Nino years, but what about weather/winds in the winter and spring months? More thuderstorms? Less wind overall? Bad Fishing?

I'm headed down south this year so I'm curious. Not really worried about it, just curious.
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Old 16-02-2014, 15:40   #6
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Re: Possible mild el Nino year 2014

El Niņo means a mild hurricane season in the Atlantic
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Old 16-02-2014, 15:55   #7
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Re: Possible mild el Nino year 2014

confirms my observations
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