'Jesstimate' - The Jessica Watson Arrival Time Contest

[scook1]

It seems like most of the good guesses have already been made. I expect her on April, 30th around 9:00 A.M.

[hummingway]

April 28th 14:32:59

[READY2GO]

May 2nd at 2pm

[Coot's Away]

Originally Posted by sec906

April 29 at...what time does the evening news broadcast start in Sydney?

No need to figure this in to your calcs - "...Jessica’s broadcast partner ONE HD (Network Ten’s digital sports channel) have confirmed they will be televising the final hours of her journey LIVE, which is great news for all of her Australian supporters, who are unable to get to Sydney. "

Saturday 1 May at 11am.

and not to change the topic, but interesting background info
Sail-World.com : Solo sailor starts transTasman race with record crossing

[bengtinge]

3 May, 3 PM Sydney time.

I will describe my calculation after deadline, so my competitors can't use it.

[Sailorette]

5 May, Noon

I figure she's going to need an extra couple of days if she's going to be drawing circles and hearts in the Indian Ocean

[missnmountains]

4 may, 1400

KEN

[bengtinge]

Originally Posted by bengtinge

3 May, 3 PM Sydney time.

I will describe my calculation after deadline, so my competitors can't use it.

When I wrote the prediction, the lastest position was from March 30 at 36°07S 92°48E. I assumed this position was from afternoon that day. According to my Excel formulas the distance to Southeast Tasmania is 2529 nm.

The straight distance from where she was 30 days earlier is 3000 nm. So therefore I assumed 100 nm straight distance per day, so she would reach Southeast Tasmania 25,3 days later. The distance to Sydney is 613 nm more according to my formula. For that I assumed a little less speed. This gave the evening May 2nd. I assumed arrival would be afternoon the day after because she would sleep some distance outside the coast to avoid the most shipping traffic.

When I write this, the Excel forecast shows arrival one day later.

[sec906]

Originally Posted by READY2GO

May 2nd at 2pm

From Jessica's web site today: "Jessica and her little 34-footer Ella's Pink Lady are due to arrive in Sydney, possibly on May 2, weather permitting..."

We'll see...

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by READY2GO

May 2nd at 2pm

Good guess R2G, and I appreciate your not guessing 09:48:31 local (Sydney) time - you know, like the greedy cut-throats on The Price Is Right. (American TV game show)

TaoJones

[paradix]

It seems nobody has accounted for the fickle weather under Australia. Given that Jessica is still somewhere northwest of Tasmania, and even when she gets around to Hobart it's probably another week back to Sydney from there in her boat, I'd say you're all out by days, if not weeks...

Round 2?

[Spirit28]

If she goes through Bass Strait - then I reckon Saturday 8th May @ 4:30pm as we sail past on the Princess Dawn on a SW Pacific cruise.

If she goes around bottom of Tas - then it will be Friday 21st May @ 6:30am as we sail back into Sydney Harbour.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by paradix

......It seems nobody has accounted for the fickle weather under Australia. ...........

That raised a smile on my face, I have always associated the word "fickle" (when applied to the weather) with a meaning along the lines of "light and variable" but I guess it could also apply to the strong and changeable nature of the weather in Southern Australian waters that begins after the autumn equinox.

[Stillraining]

Well if she doesn't come in May 4th @ 2 pm...I take back every good thing I'v said about her.



JUST KIDDING!!!....Stay safe little one...You have already made us all proud..

[sec906]

From Jessica's web site today: "...Saturday 15 May...Jessica will cross the finish line at approximately 11:30am and arrive at the Sydney Opera House around 12.30pm"

That's my new prediction!