'Jesstimate' - The Jessica Watson Arrival Time Contest

[slomotion]

With moderator approval (what were they thinking?) I hereby announce the Jessica Watson RTW Arrival Time Contest. AND I GET TO MAKE THE RULES!

Rules and Information:

1. The object is to pick the date and time of Jessica's arrival back in Sydney. The closest guess wins. However, in the interest of encouraging her to sail faster, entries which pick a date and/or time later than her arrival are not eligible. So yes, you could get the date right and still lose because Jessica arrived before your guessed time.

2. To be considered as an "official" entry, replies should state ONLY the date, and time; eg.: April 30, 12:01 PM. I think we can assume the year is 2010. Do not use the CF date format which appears on posts because it will be confusing. Military time but not date format is permitted . Replies other than your date/time guess are, of course, permitted. Only ONE ENTRY per member is allowed. However, entries may be withdrawn and replaced up to the cut off date.

3. The rules for Jessica’s voyage require that she depart from and return to the same port, Sydney. So crossing her outbound line or other measures of a circumnavigation completion do not count. She completes her voyage when she arrives in Sydney and that is the time you need to guess - sort of. I’m still not sure what this means - crossing some line that demarks Sydney Harbor? Docking? MORE IMPORTANTLY, I’ve reviewed some articles on Jesse Martin, Zack Sunderland, etc. and there doesn’t seem to be any mention of an official arrival time. Records for those crazy one-off racing boat circumnavs are usually expressed in days, hours, minutes. But, records for Jessica’s type of voyage are usually expressed only in days. I cannot even find an exact time for her departure.

So, THE REAL TIME YOU HAVE TO GUESS is the "official" announced arrival time, if any; or any other time you can document and defend per any information available after Jessica’s arrival. Winners will, of course, be determined by endless debate and possibly a vote.

4. Cut off date = April 1, 2010 per the CF date stamp for your post. IE. your post must be stamped prior to midnight April 1st. Post April 1, 2010 posts promoting debate, argument, and thread drift are, of course, encouraged.

5. New South Wales is currently on Daylight Savings Time = UTC/GMT + 11 hours. On April 4, 2010 this will change back to Standard Time = UTC/GMT +10 hours. All Date/Time entries are deemed to be in the local time in Sydney in effect for the guessed date.

6. Prize is TBD. But, surely the glory alone that comes with winning is priceless.

7. Anyone, other than me, who is inclined to create an official spread sheet of date/time entries is encouraged to do so.

[paradix]

- Sydney Heads was the "official" departure line, and she recorded crossing it at 9.49 a.m. local time when she left, so I am sure she will record an "official" finishing time as well, when she crosses the well-defined line between the Heads.

- Kay Cottee, who also finished her journey as the first woman to solo non-stop circumnavigate at Sydney Heads, had to hang around for a couple of days offshore before she could come in, so that she arrived on the day arranged by her supporters. Other circumnavigators have similarly had to slow down or stall in the last weeks in order to meet pre-arranged arrival dates. Just something to keep in mind...

- Some members here may or may not have access to inside information and may or may not be open to bribery...

[slomotion]

Physical interference and extortion are prohibited. Inside information, trading therein, and bribery are, of course, perfectly legal. In the interest of fairness, all rules are subject to change for a good reason, a bad reason, or no reason at all.

[TaoJones]

Brilliant idea, slomo. While I'm not ready to enter my best guess just yet, I would like to say that my new best friend Paradix is one of the finest people I've ever wanted to meet. When I have an opportunity to communicate with him in detail, I will, of course, then have a date and time to put forward.

TaoJones

[slomotion]

Hmmm ..... Just a rumor, but I heard some guy named Paradix is auctioning his prediction on eBay.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by slomotion

Hmmm ..... Just a rumor, but I heard some guy named Paradix is auctioning his prediction on eBay.

He'd better not! I already promised him . . . oh . . . er . . . uhm, never mind.

[dpex]

Originally Posted by TaoJones

He'd better not! I already promised him . . . oh . . . er . . . uhm, never mind.

I say again. April 30th, 0632 local. I just sent her an email to encourage her to arrive at this time.

Also mentioned, in said email that her vang was loose. Anyone else see that?

A loose vang is bad karma.

A long time ago I noticed she'd left the winch handle in the winch, and emailed. Never seen it since.

Pedant on matters of security that I am. :--(((

[James S]

April 28th 12 noon

[skipmac]

Sat 1 May noon.

You can go ahead and send the prize. I'll give you the mailing address by PM.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I am guessing her official finish line will be where she crosses her outbound track (tying the knot) which given her route will probably be when she enters Sydney Harbour passing through the Heads.

I agree with Wotname, as Jessica's website refers to the Heads as "the official start/finish line." My "Jesstimate" is:

May 2, 2010 at 09:48:30 local (Sydney) time.

TaoJones

[Stillraining]

May 4th 2:00pm local time

[paradix]

Thanks TaoJones, your package arrived safely. There was some damage from your haphazard and clearly rushed attempt to package it, but I was planning to re-cut it and sell it on the street so that's no big deal.

I can confirm now that there has been a late change to the time I told you earlier. They have decided to bring her in the day before, at 2 a.m. on May 1st (International Workers' Day), in order to promote her major sponsor's new "glow in the dark" range of cosmetics, designed to celebrate the glorious working conditions enjoyed by their factory late-shift workers.

Oooop - did I post this in the public forum? Probably would have been better to PM...

[Randy]

I'm thinking May 3 1:30 PM local time. They've got to give the press time to gather round.

[Jim D]

Originally Posted by Randy

... They've got to give the press time to gather round.

Yep, pretty sure it won't be at night.

~

[sec906]

April 29 at...what time does the evening news broadcast start in Sydney?