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Old 13-10-2008, 10:27   #1
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Hurricane Omar??

I'm sitting at the dock in Virgin Gorda preparing the boat for cruising, watching this new storm develop around us. We've have some heavy rain and so far only 20-25knt winds and not consistent. It is forcast to develop from Tropical Depression 15 into Hurricane Omar by Wednesday night and move nth-east right over the top of us on Wednesday night with 60-80knt winds and torrential rain.

I'll keep you posted! (if I can)

Keep track here: National Hurricane Center
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Old 13-10-2008, 10:46   #2
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Looks like it's drawing a bead on you, Rangiroo! Don't send it over my way!

If you haven't tried it, this site is a good adjunct to the NHC site: Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

Here are the model plots for TD 15, which they update every few hours. Also the Tortola wind and wave forecast from Windfinder.com

Looks like VG Yacht Harbour will be a good spot to be, with the wind building from the south.
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Old 13-10-2008, 10:56   #3
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Thanks for the extra links there Hud. I'd like to catch up with you in December sometime...headed down there after here....

Michael
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Old 16-10-2008, 06:54   #4
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Well....we dodged a MAJOR bullet here last night....we had 50mph winds and torrential rain (about 6in) for about 3 hrs before it finally started to calm down about 2.30AM. There was no damage to any boats here in the Virgin Gorda Yacht Harbor and only minor damage around like some small trees uprooted and stuff. That's the good news.....

The bad news for others is that we have anecdotal news from St Croix and St Martin and it sounds like both places sustained major damage. We heard that a marina in St Croix with 22 boats was destroyed with all 22 boats either sunk or missing.

We also heard (from the recipient) of a frantic phone call at 5.00AM this morning from Simpson Bay in St Martin describing "15ft waves IN THE BAY" before the line went dead and no further word.

Please understand that apart from the Virgin Gorda information the rest of it is HEARSAY only at the moment...it is early in the day on the morning after......
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Old 16-10-2008, 07:45   #5
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I can't imagine 15ft waves in the bay. From my understanding you would need 30 feet of water to do that? Plus there's no fetch.

DUH........Unless you are typing about the outside bay. Then I could imagine walls of water being exposed as it is. Hopefully in the next 1-3 years I will have sailed out of the hurricane zone.....HOPEFULLY!
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Old 16-10-2008, 08:31   #6
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John you need to take me with you, you know how unsafe it is alone. lol


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Old 16-10-2008, 08:42   #7
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Dutch,

My friends claim I am crazy. You might be safer being left ashore!
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Old 16-10-2008, 09:06   #8
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I can't imagine 15ft waves in the bay. From my understanding you would need 30 feet of water to do that ...
I suspect that you're roughly correct.

The general "rule of thumb" ratio of wave height to shallow water depth is <0.8 .

In shallow water, with the water depth small compared to the wavelength, the individual waves break when their wave height H is larger than 0.8 times the water depth h, that is H > 0.8 h.

Thus, a 15 Ft. Wave could possibly occur over a 18.75 Ft. deep bottom.

However, though a value for the maximum wave height to water depth ratio, (H/d) [max] of 0.78 is commonly used in coastal engineering design for sloped and horizontal beds, laboratory and field evidence has shown that (over horizontal beds) a value of 0.78 is unnecessarily conservative - and that it is not practically possible to achieve values for (H/d) {max} greater than 0.55 in these circumstances.

Which would require a 27.27 Ft. Deep bottom, to allow 15 Ft. Waves.
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Old 16-10-2008, 09:12   #9
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Any information about Simpson Bay Lagoon on St. Maarten? The last hit pushed all the boats anchored in the lagoon to the west end and a number of boaters lost their lives.
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Old 16-10-2008, 09:18   #10
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John,

I would tend to believe the report of big waves in Simpson Bay on St. Maarten. Omar went a little further east than expected, through the Anegada Passage. That put St. Maarten in the worst sector. Winds were estimated at 125 mph. The storm churned up some impressive swells, and they arrived from the south. As you know, Simpson Bay is open to the south.

I don't know how big they got here on Nevis last night. I managed to sleep through the worst part of the storm. But I saw that the swells had washed up over the road at Tamarind Bay. The 15' swells that we got last March didn't make it that far.

A year or so ago, a local entrepreneur bought an old WWII landing craft, built a stone and earth jetty, and opened a car ferry between Nevis and St. Kitts. With the expectation of southerly swells, he took his boat out to motor against the wind and waves, rather than leaving it at an exposed dock. His engines failed, and he wound up on the beach in front of the Oaulie Beach Hotel. Wiped out their pier in the process. Another ferry broke free of her mooring at Charlestown, and washed up on the beach in front of Sunshine's beach bar. The beach at the Four Seasons Resort was overrun, and seawater invaded all their first floor accomodations. Shades of Hurricane Lenny!
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Old 16-10-2008, 09:19   #11
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My boat is on the hard at Nanny Cay in Tortola

If anybody have any news from credible sources, please post.

Thanks in advance,
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Old 16-10-2008, 10:11   #12
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My boat is on the hard at Nanny Cay in Tortola

If anybody have any news from credible sources, please post.

Thanks in advance,
I can't imagine anything would have happened to it. We are in Virgin Gorda and so a wee bit closer to the storm than Nanny Cay and everything is just fine here.

We'll be heading to Tortola (Road Town) tomorrow to pick up sails so I can ask over there about any damage but I can't really imagine anything would be amiss....rest easy....
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Old 16-10-2008, 12:04   #13
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I'm also looking for news from Tortola as our boat is on the hard at Nanny Cay. Also any followup reports from St. Croix (our home to be) would be great. Can't find much info elswere as of yet.

Thanks,
Scott.
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Old 16-10-2008, 13:55   #14
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Scott,

Sounds like St. Croix came through better than they had originally expected.

St. Croix Source
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Old 16-10-2008, 15:19   #15
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A Friend of mine from West End has indicated her room mate reported no problems at Nanny Cay. He works at Sea Cow Bay and they don't "appear" to have any significant problem. One small power boat may have been pushed around with anchor drag but no indications of boats being pushed off the braces. I have a call into my yacht manager but no reports yet. Phone and internet and Power are intermittant... but that is not odd even on a good weather day.
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