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Old 13-11-2019, 22:51   #61
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

Greta's message is quite unambiguous: don't focus on her, focus on the science. Personally, I obviously wish this whole climate change/crisis was a hoax but I had the opportunity to listen to a couple of specialists on the subject (scientists, who had been modelling this stuff for the last few decades or so). I found particularly telling how the predictions of their models even 10 years ago were far too optimistic in comparison to what we are actually observing today. The same is happening today as they are having to tone it down for their findings to be politically acceptable for inclusion in the various climate reports. It really looks like we can almost safely conclude that the climate crisis is real and that we are in very deep trouble indeed.

Also a word about Freedom of Speech since this is often used to hide behind whatever is being said about each other: with Freedom of Speech also comes responsibility. Just because we have Freedom of Speech, it does not mean we can say whatever we feel like. Common decency and respect for our fellow human beings still count and underpin our civil society therefore should rule out debate based on hatred and mutual disrespect.
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Old 13-11-2019, 23:41   #62
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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Originally Posted by Island Time O25 View Post
This is a more scientific take on Nietzsche's "the artist must be mad to create". Conformists and "average" people by definition rarely produce much outside the norm. On the other hand it seems that the hysterics around the climate are 21st century''s version of Salem village hysterics of 1690s. Only with powerful media platforms and big $$$ on its side.
These observations go back thousands of years, rediscovered time and again...really, an evolutionary thing.
When the society is not stressed, you get homogeneity in offspring. When the society is stressed, through various genetic and hormonal factors you get greater variation in offspring (e.g. more atypical ones with higher and lower IQ, more gender fluidity, more "mental illness" problems). [see National Geographic Stress video clip for an intro on how stress in the womb sets up for lifelong problems...otherwise the whole video is a must see on general stress and health interplay]

In theory the creativity is what helps the offspring escape the environmental stresses that turned on the "crazy/creative" genes in the first place. It's a marvelously elegant system for 50,000 years ago when tribes were few and far between and were mobile. A horrific system when we live atop one another, never move, and/or are connected to news of every evil deed on a planet with 7 billion people. At any given time ~66-80% of the population are normal-wired herd types...you walk with the herd, you step in manure...ordinary to have conflict.

So in theory people like Greta are here as true-tellers to save us. Problem is, there's also "protect the power grid" Greta, there's "stop nuclear proliferation" Greta, there's "stop using antibiotics too much" Greta, there's "stop GMO crops" Greta, there's "AI will do us in" Greta, etc. "Climate change" Greta is easiest to understand to many people, but I'm not convinced that she's the right one. At any rate, civilizations have tended to do a pretty bad job of selecting the correct Greta, withstanding the good reasoning of the day. As they say, make a plan and the universe laughs at you.
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Old 13-11-2019, 23:49   #63
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

Quote:
Originally Posted by HeinSdL View Post
Greta's message is quite unambiguous: don't focus on her, focus on the science. Personally, I obviously wish this whole climate change/crisis was a hoax but I had the opportunity to listen to a couple of specialists on the subject (scientists, who had been modelling this stuff for the last few decades or so). I found particularly telling how the predictions of their models even 10 years ago were far too optimistic in comparison to what we are actually observing today. The same is happening today as they are having to tone it down for their findings to be politically acceptable for inclusion in the various climate reports. It really looks like we can almost safely conclude that the climate crisis is real and that we are in very deep trouble indeed.

Also a word about Freedom of Speech since this is often used to hide behind whatever is being said about each other: with Freedom of Speech also comes responsibility. Just because we have Freedom of Speech, it does not mean we can say whatever we feel like. Common decency and respect for our fellow human beings still count and underpin our civil society therefore should rule out debate based on hatred and mutual disrespect.

Good news for you. Climate change has been safely contained within models and data manipulation*** so the end isn't nigh. As demonstrated by modern humanity's vastly improved lot by just about every single comparative yardstick over past generations.



The irony is that Greta can thank her fame and the global reach of her opinion aka free speech, even while being transported across oceans in unprecedented safety on a small craft thanks in great part to the generation of anthropogenic CO2.


***
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Old 13-11-2019, 23:59   #64
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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Good news for you. Climate change has been safely contained within models and data manipulation*** so the end isn't nigh. As demonstrated by modern humanity's vastly improved lot by just about every single comparative yardstick over past generations.



The irony is that Greta can thank her fame and the global reach of her opinion aka free speech, even while being transported across oceans in unprecedented safety on a small craft thanks in great part to the generation of anthropogenic CO2.


***
Exactly, and how much I wish you were completely right about this, honestly. But even if there is an outside chance of certain crisis predictions turning out to be correct (my understanding is that it is not an outside chance) then we should still take note and correct our ways.

The odd thing is, the 737 Max had a tiny probability of crashing and has therefore been taken out of service, and will stay out of service until we are absolutely sure this tiny probability has been eliminated. But with the planet we don't apply this thinking. I find that odd and highly inconsistent.
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Old 14-11-2019, 00:18   #65
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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Originally Posted by HeinSdL View Post
Exactly, and how much I wish you were completely right about this, honestly. But even if there is an outside chance of certain crisis predictions turning out to be correct (my understanding is that it is not an outside chance) then we should still take note and correct our ways.

The odd thing is, the 737 Max had a tiny probability of crashing and has therefore been taken out of service, and will stay out of service until we are absolutely sure this tiny probability has been eliminated. But with the planet we don't apply this thinking. I find that odd and highly inconsistent.
I'm guessing you don't drive a car on the outside chance you'll be hurt or worse in an auto accident?



And the 737 Max had an absolute history of crashing due to a quickly diagnosed known cause, NOT a "tiny probability" of crashing. Your analogy is more akin to having ALL aircraft grounded world wide if the "demands" of Greta were to be met.
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Old 14-11-2019, 01:04   #66
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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I'm guessing you don't drive a car on the outside chance you'll be hurt or worse in an auto accident?



And the 737 Max had an absolute history of crashing due to a quickly diagnosed known cause, NOT a "tiny probability" of crashing. Your analogy is more akin to having ALL aircraft grounded world wide if the "demands" of Greta were to be met.
As I already said, I honestly hope you are right and we need not worry about a thing. With regards to this particular discussion, I'll leave it at that, thanks.
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Old 14-11-2019, 01:48   #67
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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Got the ADHD bit from one of her mothers interviews.
I admitted in my post that the bi-polar issue was my personal suspicion based on my experience with three close family members.
You know nothing worth while about Aspergers / Autism. Dumb post to promote your point of view about other issues.
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Old 14-11-2019, 01:54   #68
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

This is where it gets funny: (surly beats working/going to school)
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Old 14-11-2019, 02:40   #69
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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Neither the drought nor the bush fires are "unprecedented". To quote the poet Dorothy Mc Keller "a land of drought and flooding rains".

It's not even a particularly bad drought yet in that it has not lasted any where as long or is as wide spread as previous droughts and the fires, whilst wide spread are no where near as serious as say the Black Friday bush fire with it's death toll in the hundreds and lost dwellings in the thousands.

As that master of the vernacular said in relation to a previous trend, even the parrots in the trees are screeching "climate change" every time we have one of these incidents these days.

And I see on the TV news even Greta's had a go from her perch.
The fire chiefs might disagree with you. Remember, it's not even summer in Australia yet and the situation in New South Wales and elsewhere is dire.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...climate-change
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Old 14-11-2019, 03:24   #70
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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The fire chiefs might disagree with you. Remember, it's not even summer in Australia yet and the situation in New South Wales and elsewhere is dire.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...climate-change

The Ash Wednesday fires in 1983 were far more devasting then the current fires People these days seem to suffer from short memories and just swallow what's fed to them. No one blamed "climate change" in 1983 and earlier for devastating bush fires. Yet they're all caused by the same thing. An extended drought, low humidity and a period of no rain with high winds.
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Old 14-11-2019, 03:46   #71
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

Shouldn't we just be enjoying the exposure? Someone who learns about how beautiful our sport is may want to buy your boat....
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Old 14-11-2019, 04:06   #72
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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Originally Posted by Budawang View Post
The fire chiefs might disagree with you. Remember, it's not even summer in Australia yet and the situation in New South Wales and elsewhere is dire.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...climate-change
What makes you think fires only occur in summer in Australia?

From the Australian Bureau of Meterorology: The current fires are in "spring fire season" areas.






New South Wales and southern Queensland—spring to mid-summer

The greatest danger occurs after the dry winter and spring. The worst conditions occur when deep low-pressure systems near Tasmania bring strong, hot and dry, westerly winds to the coastal districts. The end of the fire season is determined by the onset of moister conditions, sometimes the result of a tropical cyclone developing near the Queensland coast.


How about 800 miles of fires in July 1946?
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Old 14-11-2019, 04:42   #73
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pirate Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

In the UK and Europe the flooding is bieng blamed on Climate Change.. in reality it down to crap EU policies which discourage the dredging of rivers and encourage the clearing of areas of land that traditionally used to absorb and disperse heavy rainfall.
But hey.. Politicians and the gnomes in Brussels can't be wrong.. its man made climate change.
Venice is a good current example if you look at how the lagoon is set up and consider the recent rainfall coming down the 7 rivers.
Its historic and not a new thing but CC is a great whipping post.
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Old 14-11-2019, 05:21   #74
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

not a big fan of Greta or what goverments would do with funding from "Climate change tax".....but we will see how it plays out.

were I am excited is what this young greta can bring to the sailing community, she may be able to spark interest in other young people to get involved learning to sail....along with Vagabonde sailing interest could rise...lets hope for a safe passage
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Old 14-11-2019, 05:32   #75
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Re: Greta hitches a ride on La Vagabonde

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I know you didn’t mean mentally disturbed as an insult.

But you may be surprised at how many of the “Greats” likely had Aspergers. From Lindburg, Einstein, Archimedes, Issac Newton to name a few.
Here are a few others
https://www.appliedbehavioranalysisp...tism-spectrum/


Sometimes our heroes don’t live up to the hype:


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...istresses.html
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