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Old 13-05-2007, 13:54   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JackieRichardson
... There's so much evidence to indicate more than 85% chance of survival ...
Interesting news, please share some of that evidence.
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Old 13-05-2007, 15:41   #17
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Jackie,

I hope you're right, but I just don't see it that way. Like Gord, I'd be interested to know what "evidence" you can point to.

Although the Coast Guard has thus far neglected to post the last reported position (by EPIRB) of Flying Colours, they have said she was "off the Carolina Coast". They also have failed to describe details of the boat which are easily obtainable: 1992 Little Harbor 54, etc., etc.

This design is usually a centerboard one, with a draft of some 6' board up and 11' or so board down. Although the Little Harbors are very strong, a centerboard boat of any construction would not be my choice for the conditions she reportedly faced, i.e., seas of 30-40' or more...probably breaking....and winds gusting from the north, against the Stream, at up to hurricane strength. This would have kicked up one hell of a sea, one of nightmarish proportions. Any north wind over 15-20 knots or so blowing in the Gulf Stream can create steep, high seas which are very, very uncomfortable. If you haven't been there in those conditions, you're not likely to even in your wildest dreams imagine what a northerly of more than 40-50 knots could create after blowing for awhile.

I hope they're fine, bobbing about in a liferaft somewhere in that "Texas-sized" search area. Very hard to find things which get in trouble there, because the Gulf Stream can move you 70-90 nm in 24 hours.

But I don't think so. I think they faced increasingly rough seas which soon resulted in pure survival conditions, maybe had serious damage to the boat including, perhaps, problems with the centerboard, set off their 406 EPIRB and, just a few hours later, were rolled by one of those massive breaking seas and went down quickly, taking their EPIRB with them.

I hope it's not so. But, I'd reverse the odds you cited....less than a 15% chance anyone survived those conditions, even initially. Now, after a week, the odds are a lot less.
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Old 13-05-2007, 18:07   #18
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FLYING COLOURS

I POSTED A MESSAGE LOOKING FOR SUPPORT.
MY RELATIVE IS ONE OF THE CREW MEMBERS. WE ARE NOT GIVING UP.
IT SOUNDS LIKE YOUR AN EXPERT IN BOAT CONSTRUCTION AND YOUR MESSAGE REALLY HURTS. I
UNDERSTAND IT'S YOUR HONEST OPINION.
WE WERE TOLD WHEN A BOAT GOES DOWN YOU FIND A FIELD OF DEBRIS. NOTHING FOUND TO DATE.
THE HULL IS 3 INCHES THICK AND COMPLETELY COVERED IN KEVIAR.
TWO LICENSED CAPTAINS ABOARD FAMILIAR WITH ROUGH SEAS INCLUDING CROSSING THE ATLANTIC.
THE CAPTAINS BOTH COMPLETED LIFE RAFT SURVIVAL IN THE PAST YEAR.
THIS WILL BE MY LAST POSTING..I HAVE BEEN SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS SINCE THIS HAPPENED.
PLEASE KEEP THE CREW OF FLYING COLOURS IN YOUR PRAYERS. THANK YOU
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Old 14-05-2007, 04:29   #19
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I must apologise to JackieRobinson - he DID provide evidence:
* ie: Strong boat, 2 experienced Captains on board, & No debris found.

Evidently, like me, the USCG doesn't find that* to be sufficiently convincing evidence that continuing the search (after nearly a week) was likely to be fruitful. We can only hope that we're wrong, and the sailors are found (or turn up) safe & sound.
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Old 14-05-2007, 17:33   #20
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Jackie
I am sure I can speak for everyone here, the loss of this crew may not be as painful to us as you, but I asure you that everyone on this site shares in the pain of this tragedy. I know that we all hold out the hope that they will be rescued. You came to the right place for support. Everyone on this site shares the passion that the sea offers us, and I doubt that the crew of the FLYING COLOURS are any different. Regardless of our differences we are a family. Are Hopes and Prayers are with you.
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Old 14-05-2007, 18:40   #21
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Quote:
Regardless of our differences we are a family.
We all share the same risk of the sea. No one is without risk that goes to sea. To fail to acknowledge this great tragedy would be to ignore the great risk we all take. The risk is quite real and can become too great.

Remembrance means to show dedication to vigilance. It is only through this vigilance that we can gain hope for our own futures. In any tragedy at sea hope and vigilance are the best qualities to hold dear against great risks.
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Old 15-05-2007, 10:51   #22
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Don't give up hope

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackieRichardson
It's too early to call off the search! Strong boat, 2 experienced Captains on board.
The Coast Guard needs to expand the search. No debris found. There's so much evidence to indicate more than 85% chance of survival.
Not very caring of CG to call off search on the eve of Mother's Day either.
I'm with you Jackie. I too have a friend on the sailboat Flying Colours. Rhiannon Borisoff is like a daugter to me. She is a loving , caring and funny young lady. She is so full of life and a joy to be around. I too think the search was called off to early. I would think that if the boat sank there would be something, anything , that would have showed up. Because there has been no debris I have a hard time thinking it sank. I also think the boat is disabled and is waiting to be found. If we give up the search we are giving up hope. And I'm not ready to give up hope. They ARE out there , there just hoping and waiting to be rescued.
If any of you had a loved one out there you would feel the same way.
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Old 15-05-2007, 12:18   #23
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First, let me say I share all of your hopes that these people on Flying Colours are found. It's the worst things... no words can even begin to describe.

Going with the theory Jackie and Linda have, was the boat well stocked? Could they survive a couple months with the provisions and/or water they have? Even if completely disabled and drifting, they will end up in Europe eventually if they were in the Gulf Stream. They should be up to the North East USA by now...

It would be a happy ending to see they are ok. Let's all hope.
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Old 18-05-2007, 05:34   #24
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Vigil Tonight

Although the Coast Guard called off the active search last Saturday for the missing 54’ sailboat “Flying Colours”, the sailing community has taken it upon themselves to continue the search. Dozens of boats traveling the Atlantic have volunteered to help look for any sign of the missing vessel and her crew of four experienced sailors.

Friends and family of the missing crew have organized a vigil/ “keeping the faith” party at the Newport Shipyard in Newport, R.I. this Friday May, 18th at 6:30 p.m.
Goto: projo.com Rhode Island news | projo.com | The Providence Journal

The same storm that may have claimed the Flying Colours also caused the crews from three other sailboats to abandon ship. The Coast Guard rescued nine other sailors that day during storm conditions off the coast of North Carolina that produced seas up to 40 feet. Boating magazine, “Soundings” has the stories and footage from these dramatic rescues on a new portion of their site called The Rescue Channel.
Goto: The Rescue Channel
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Old 18-05-2007, 08:03   #25
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Here's some more info about Flying Colours, taken from her documentation. She's a 1992 Little Harbour 54, apparently owned by a corporation in Washington, DC. Very well-found vessel and, from the pic, in very good condition.

Quote:
Vessel Name: FLYING COLOURS USCG Doc. No.: 1032391 Vessel Service: RECREATIONAL IMO Number: * Trade Indicator: Recreational Call Sign: * Hull Material: FRP (FIBERGLASS) Hull Number: LHB54027D292 Ship Builder: * Year Built: 1992

Length (ft.): 54 Hailing Port: WASHINGTON DC Hull Depth (ft.): 9.7 Owner: DRONES MARINE LLC
SUITE 800 1300 CONNECTICUT AVE NW
WASHINGTON, DC 20036 Hull Breadth (ft.): 15.2 Gross Tonnage: 53 Net Tonnage: 42 Documentation Issuance Date: July 28, 2006 Documentation Expiration Date: August 31, 2007 Previous Vessel Names: LADY TWICK
PENTOGA
Previous Vessel Owners: No Vessel Owner Changes

Bill
Hey Bill, Cam and all... did they frequent sailnet and/or Cruisers forum??? That name sounds very familiar to me. ANyone here know them???
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Old 18-05-2007, 08:09   #26
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Jackie and family,

Don't ever give up hope. Me and my family's thoughts are with you...

- CD
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Old 18-05-2007, 08:32   #27
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After reading Gord's link to Sounding, I'll say it again: What is UP with this Atlantic weather???

This is fierce stuff. I tucked into a harbor last night to avoid the
brunt of the latest storm. I'm less than a half mile from the windward shore and got BREAKERS last night. The boat was lurching at anchor so badly that my stomach would drop out as I tried to sleep. Winds 30 knots.

A kayaker died in Porland the other day too. This weather has been very tough.
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Old 18-05-2007, 09:23   #28
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Quote:
After reading Gord's link to Sounding, I'll say it again: What is UP with this Atlantic weather???

This is fierce stuff. I tucked into a harbor last night to avoid the
brunt of the latest storm. I'm less than a half mile from the windward shore and got BREAKERS last night. The boat was lurching at anchor so badly that my stomach would drop out as I tried to sleep. Winds 30 knots.

A kayaker died in Porland the other day too. This weather has been very tough.
Well, I don't know about the kayaker thing, but most people plan to move their boats about this time of year. It is historically, and for about the next 30 days or so, not a bad time to move. After the next 30 days, you are much more restricted and it is probably more risky as hurricane season will be upon you. That storm off Hatteras was a bit of a fluke, in my opinion... but a deadly fluke.

I don't fault anyone that was out there... as long as they did not leave port and head into it. May/early June is traditionally a good time to move.

- CD
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Old 18-05-2007, 10:03   #29
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Keeping the faith

I'm glad to see all the support. To most of you these four people are a story of how unforgiving the sea can be. But to me and others they are close frisnds and family. Life without them is not an option.
I'm not a sailor like most of you. It's hard for me to understand how the sea and boats work. To me there still out there waiting to be saved. To me there out there floating, rationing there supplies, waiting and hoping. Hoping that they have not been forgotten .
Thank you all for your thoughts and prayers.
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Old 18-05-2007, 10:21   #30
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The Soundings articles add some new info to the mystery of Flying Colours' disappearance. Of particular interest is the note that she set off her EPIRB "200 miles East of Cape Fear". The USCG has thus far failed to provide any Lat/Lon coordinates. I simply don't understand this and I absolutely don't agree with whatever reason they may have (probably just not thinking things through). They had the EPIRB signal for over 3 hours. It only takes a few minutes to get a good position report from a 406 EPIRB. If they had immediately published and broadcast that position, other ships in the area could have been put on the alert.

One of the C-130's also dropped marker buoys at the EPIRB's position. Again, they didn't publish or broadcast these coordinates. Why???

Using the "200 miles East of Cape Fear" report, and looking at historical data buoy data, one can get a clearer picture of the conditions in that general vicinity.

Data station #41001 is located at 34°41'00" N 72°39'42" W, or about 150nm East of Cape Hatteras. This is a bit north of the general vicinity of "200 miles East of Cape Fear".

Looking at data from that station, it appears that the storm evolved as follows:

Wind had been southerly at good speeds for sailing. The barometer had been between about 1020 and 1010 mb.

By Sunday, May 6 at 1800Z wind direction had changed to the NNE, pressure had dropped, and wind speed was up to about 25 knots. An hour later it was blowing 40 knots, sustained.

By Monday morning at 0450Z wind speed was up over 50 knots sustained, with gusts over hurricane speed at about 70 knots. The lowest recorded barometric pressure was 1003.8mb, not particularly low.

By Tuesday morning May 8 @ 0200Z the storm began to mitigate. Wind speed dropped to about 30 knots, with gusts to 40 knots.

The maximum wave height recorded by this data station was 40'.

Wind direction remained from the NNE and NE during the storm.

This data station, and the reported position of Flying Colours, is quite a bit East of the main part of the Gulf Stream, and are therefore less subject to the sea-building forces present there (i.e., north-running current at up to 4 knots against a north wind), but 40' seas and hurricane-force winds anywhere are very dangerous. And, of course, there are the rogue waves which occur and which are not recorded by the data buoys, except as a fluke.

I believe the owner's comment about what likely happened (catastrophic event) is correct, as I noted previously, but I hope it's not so.

Keeping fingers and toes crossed.

Bill
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