Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooling

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Secretary of State Kerry is a joke.
The Nuke Bomb Iran is going to get under the "deal" will cause more Global Warming than all the Air Conditioning units combined.

Well Rich...than it's a good thing Donald whats his name will make amerika grate agun.

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Not Hilarious at all.
You have to understand the anatomy of a Great Forum Post....let me help.

See you have to be gentle with these MMGW Cultists or you risk hurting them emotionally. So rather than posting the link to the Scientific Journal that the data and story came out of "Nature" I posted the link to Britbart as a safety hatch...a emotional and religious relief valve if you will.

That way, just as you have done, it will give those who otherwise would be trapped in a corner and face an internal Religious Dogma Meltdown, a way out. Attack the link, while ignoring the Data and Science behind the link. But mission accomplished because the seed of truth has been planted and if watered and nurtured, can grow and bring the Cultists out of darkness to see the light of truth. Rome wasn't built in a day...you have got to give a Cultist Time to decompress.

It's an old physiological trick of a good psychotherapist, to never trap and corner someone or they risk a breakdown, so you need to give them a release. I know it's extremely caring and compassionate of me to plan my posts in such a way to consider the emotional scars and damage the Truth can do to a MMGW Cultist, but hey...that's just the type of guy I am!

I'm sure the Climate supporters appreciate the way you have their best interest at heart...what a guy! But I think you are in question from the sources you pull your "facts" from.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

But I think you are in question from the sources you pull your "facts" from.

Ya...that radical right-wing publication "Nature"..ha ha

He who questions the messenger, fears the message, but relax...we can Make America Great Again.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Ya...that radical right-wing publication "Nature"..ha ha

He who questions the messenger, fears the message, but relax...we can Make America Great Again.

Well I look forward to it...from Mx.

[Exile]

Back from Cleveland so soon? But then it didn't seem like there were that many barricades to man as the convention week went on. Too bad, right?

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Oh I did, before I asked, thanks all the same. But you're helping me make my point: Kerry never said "AIR CONDITIONERS AS BIG A THREAT AS ISIS". And the list makes pretty clear the slant and intent of the "news" sites that did pick it up.

The slant & intent of news sites -- especially in the age of the internet and 24-hr. cable news -- is something else you'll just have to accept if you ever want to be comfortable living in an open society. There are plenty of closed ones you could emigrate to that are ideologically "safer" and which you may therefore prefer. It's fair to say that most reasonably intelligent and informed people understand that the first priority of any news outlet is to sell newspapers/increase ratings/sell advertising. The type of "responsible" citizen you like to preach to us about takes it upon him or herself to filter the hype, bias and rhetoric to figure out where the truth may lie. Not always easy, but you especially would be well served for at least trying.

Now, the one quote given:
...is not terribly well-calibrated as a public utterance, given the recent spate of ISIS-inspired lone-wolf attacks. Terrorist attacks in "safe" places are intended to grab headlines, to create chaos and fear that's orders of magnitude greater than the actual numbers of dead and injured would actually command.

Oh really?? Does PBS meet your censorship criteria or shall we look further?

4 surprising facts from the 2015 Global Terrorism Index | PBS NewsHour

Last year was the deadliest of the 21st century

The report says that 32,658 people died in 2014 as the direct result of terrorism, an increase of 80 percent from 2013, when terrorists killed about 18,000 people.

"Global terrorism report: In 2014, 32,658 people died as the direct result of terrorism.The 2014 death toll represents a nine-fold increase over 2000, when roughly 3,300 died in terror attacks.
Since 2000, terrorism has claimed the lives of about 140,000 people — roughly as many as died in the U.S. nuclear-bombing of Hiroshima in 1945."

In 2015, the tally was 11,774 terror attacks in 92 countries resulting in 28,328 deaths. But not to worry, John Kerry's State Dept. assures us that this amounted to a 13% decrease from 2014, although "the number of terrorist kidnappings and hostage-takings increased in 2015 to more than 12,100." We can all sleep soundly, however, since the State Dept. assures us that "a 'key trend' in 2015 was the increased level of cooperation to address terrorist threat."

11,774 Terror Attacks Worldwide in 2015; 28,328 Deaths Due to Terror Attacks (citing Country Reports on Terrorism 2015)

In other words, the U.S. and our allies are spending more time dickering around together than the dickering around we previously did alone. We could all hold hands with L-E and have his moral superiority provide us a teachable moment, but then there's the quickly growing tally from 2016 . . . .

But, in context, Kerry was providing some encouragement and thanks to people working on the unglamorous but also important work of regulating a potentially harmful substance. And, Kerry is not wrong. From a strictly actuarial point of view terrorism and/or ISIS is still way, way down on the list of things that kill or harm people, especially in the first world. Don't make me list them.

Ahhh . . . the moral equivalency angle. Right off the talking points again. No original thinking here folks. So are the deaths cited above, to say nothing of the maimings, rapes, major city lock-downs, disruption, societal trauma, political upheaval now a sufficient "order of magnitude" to equate with . . . how many deaths have there been from MMGW again??

I have to respond that, no, it's another example of someone citing a crap article from crap "news" sites who make no attempt to hide their agenda and political leaning. You lie with dogs, you'll get fleas. The headline, the sites that picked up the story - it's more evidence that a knee-jerk anti-green, anti-AGW position is a catechism, a dogma of the right. Citing this stuff certainly erodes someone's credibility.

As does making the judgment before facts are in, so we're happy to hear that you've volunteered to . . .

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

let's actually get the whole speech maybe, then make the call?

OK, but how long do we have to wait for your "research" this time? I wouldn't be in such a hurry but I need to catch up on Rich's teak deck replacement thread, and also find out what his mooring ball neighbors think about he and his son blaring right-wing Tea Party extremist radio all over the harbor.

Injuries and deaths from oil and gas extraction? Coal mining?
Air pollution?
Lac-Mégantic?
...need more?

No, since Kerry was only comparing the threat to human life from MMGW (in this case HFC's apparently) vs. deaths from terrorism.

Away from oil and gas... how about 25,000 deaths annually in the US from falls? Approx 600 accidental shooting deaths in the US per year?

Slip & falls in the bathtub? Falling off your boat? Eating the one bad oyster at the restaurant? Getting the wrong dose of painkillers at the hospital? Getting hit by a bus on the way to the barber shop? What are you talking about?? And why are you comparing accidental deaths to tens of thousands of ever-increasing malicious, premeditated, brutal murders of innocent people that are motivated by a growing number of assailants with a twisted view of their religion??

There are many uninteresting and banal preventable causes of death that kill orders of magnitude more people than terrorism. Terrorism must be eradicated... but reducing these other risks, as boring as they are, have a pretty big payback as well. Shame on Kerry for recognizing that, I guess.

No, shame on Kerry for another attempt at propagating GW alarmism at the expense of the tens of thousands of innocent victims of terrorism and their destroyed families each year. And shame on you for not being able to see the difference, all in the cause of Mother Gia of course.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Only Green Lives Matter Exile...
Remember that part of the MMGW Cult is the belief that we need to shrink the Global Population. It's why they don't mind all the deaths from Malaria of the poor when they banned DDT. Only Mother Gia Matters as the hezboenvironmentalists say...let them die for the good of Mother Earth.

Before you attack...you had better do a little google search because what I said above is true...will you have the courage to believe it is another matter.

[adoxograph]

Originally Posted by fryewe

... as are most AGW plots that use time as the independent variable...

If you would be one of my students I would most likely send you back to Statistics 100 (or maybe 101 as some of it right). You post shows a lack of understanding of basic statistics. I would say it would be graded with 49-51 out of 100. Or maybe it is a try to confuse the hell out of others for fun?

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

...
This thread purely for entertainment purposes and it's great.

Not anymore. Now it is becoming boring. Rich, I counted on you to troll the hell out of everyone here for entertainment purposes. Look at you, you try to write kind of reasonable posts now. fryewe does a better job in trolling than you - and worse, he is not even trying! What the hell is wrong with you? I know you can do better than that

To everyone else: This thread (as well the closed one) has nothing to do with science. It is all about defending political affiliation, believes and the urge to position oneself. Why are you so obsessed with labels? Denier, Believer, Sceptic, MMGW Cultist, etc. and throwing those around as an insult as well as a badge of honour? Why is everyone cherry-picking only data and statistics, which is proving his point, while declaring the rest of the data as void? Why are you attacking the science as well as the data and not just the politics (right and left!)? Why don't you look at the whole dataset? And why are you constantly arguing in circles? Don't you get bored of writing the same mantra over and over again, whatever side you are on? It's obvious that you can't convince "the other side" that way.

Time for a new strategy!

Honestly, this thread has become plain stupid and ceased to be fun a while ago. It's like watching a bunch of kids in the sandpit discussing, what the cake they made out of wet sand will taste like - chocolate or strawberry's. They don't want to see that nothing they say will change the fact that it is a not a real cake.

Guys, please, can you go back to make your wet sand-cake discussion here at least a little bit more entertaining? Your sand-cake is about to dry out and crumble down!

Pretty please?

[SV THIRD DAY]

Originally Posted by adoxograph

Now it is becoming boring. Rich, I counted on you to troll the hell out of everyone here for entertainment purposes. Look at you, you try to write kind of reasonable posts now. fryewe does a better job in trolling than you - and worse, he is not even trying! What the hell is wrong with you? I know you can do better than that

You know what, you are right, absolutely right.
I've been sensing it for a few weeks now, I've been off my game. It's the deck project amigo...my mind has been elsewhere because if I don't get the first layers of glass/epoxy down before the rain and boat show seasons start in late September my wife will kill me. I was letting Fryewe and Exile do the heavy lifting for me, and I resolve to do better.

But mi amigos...
With the pending election of tyrant Donald J (J for Jackboot) Trump, we will soon have plenty of political ideology to worry about from the internment camps set up for those that don't agree. At that point, the MMGW Cultists will team up with us Deniers to dig a tunnel out beyond the fence and escape to the relative Freedom of an anchorage in Mexico.

Now come on...that's just funny....

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Exile

It's fair to say that most reasonably intelligent and informed people understand that the first priority of any news outlet is to sell newspapers/increase ratings/sell advertising. The type of "responsible" citizen you like to preach to us about takes it upon him or herself to filter the hype, bias and rhetoric to figure out where the truth may lie.

Or you can do like fryewe and a few others do and cite these crap sites like they're unvarnished truth. Preach unto them, rev.

Oh really?? Does PBS meet your censorship criteria or shall we look further?

Nice misread. I was referring to "safe" countries - eg the recent attacks in Europe. I don't think Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, and Syria would be considered safe. As the link says:

Just 2.6 percent of deaths in 21st-century terror attacks took place in Western countries, which include the United States, Canada, Australia and Europe nations. Excluding those who died on 9/11, that figure is just 0.5 percent.

It goes on to say:

Large-scale attacks coordinated by international terrorist groups (such as 9/11 attacks and the recent deadly assault on Paris) garner a disproportionate amount of media attention. But so-called lone wolves — individuals or small groups working without the aid of a larger organization — are responsible for 70 percent of terrorism deaths in the West, and that number is rising. The Boston Marathon bombings are an example of a lone wolf attack, as were the 2011 Norway attacks that killed 77 people.

Tackling organized terrorists is hard enough. This lone wolf stuff...

No, shame on Kerry for another attempt at propagating GW alarmism at the expense of the tens of thousands of innocent victims of terrorism and their destroyed families each year. And shame on you for not being able to see the difference, all in the cause of Mother Gia of course.

The only "propagation" was done by your apparently preferred flavour of "news" sites, and by fryewe in his post here.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by adoxograph

To everyone else: This thread (as well the closed one) has nothing to do with science.

Um, no ****, Sherlock . One doesn't need to have done postgraduate study to discern this.

It is all about defending political affiliation, believes and the urge to position oneself. Why are you so obsessed with labels? Denier, Believer, Sceptic, MMGW Cultist, etc. and throwing those around as an insult as well as a badge of honour?

Labels are useful implements in the troll's toolbox. (and partisans). Near 100% efficacy, when applied as directed.

Why is everyone cherry-picking only data and statistics, which is proving his point, while declaring the rest of the data as void? Why are you attacking the science as well as the data and not just the politics (right and left!)? Why don't you look at the whole dataset? And why are you constantly arguing in circles? Don't you get bored of writing the same mantra over and over again, whatever side you are on? It's obvious that you can't convince "the other side" that way.

I'll try a few:

• Why are you attacking the science as well as the data and not just the politics? That was always the biggie for me. In order for an anti-AGW argument to have any traction, one first has to somehow convince the listener that the [choose your own adjective]-ly large number of the subject-matter experts have got it wrong. So... we get to hear how the scientific process DIDN'T work; how all these scientists are all weak-willed or incompetent careerists and grant-whores, how the UN and even the current US government and the Kenyan-in-chief are using AGW as a Tool for Globul Soshulizm. variant - there's no Consensus! Now that this teardown is part of the denier canon, they feel free to milk the output of a small number of dissenting experts.
• Why don't you look at the whole dataset? I love this one. Cos no-one in this thread is at all capable of working with it. I'll take it one further; why don't the skeptic "institutions" clamouring for FOIA release of raw data promise to use that released data to develop their own models and run their own simulations? When asked this, the usual response was "cos it's HA-A-A-ARD!" and might cost the poor dears some effort and money. But I suspect you know the real reason - if they're at all competent, they'd end up with models and conclusions that are not materially different than what the IPCC is working with.
• And why are you constantly arguing in circles? It's down to a very few players, the sensible people have moved on. Like a lazy game of catch, no one's inclined to move; the ball just goes back and forth and back and forth and back and forth and back and forth and back and forth.
• Don't you get bored of writing the same mantra over and over again, whatever side you are on? It's obvious that you can't convince "the other side" that way. As I said, the sensible have moved on. I accept the hard truth of what this says about me. The only thing that stops this CF thread looking like a Breitbart meetup is the occasional tree-hugger chiming in. You did want trolling, no?

Honestly, this thread has become plain stupid and ceased to be fun a while ago. It's like watching a bunch of kids in the sandpit discussing, what the cake they made out of wet sand will taste like - chocolate or strawberry's. They don't want to see that nothing they say will change the fact that it is a not a real cake.

Guys, please, can you go back to make your wet sand-cake discussion here at least a little bit more entertaining? Your sand-cake is about to dry out and crumble down!

Pretty please?

This is a self-help forum. Idea - randomly jump in and tear someone a new one. Take their idea and use the full power of your doctorate to reduce their argument to ashes. Here's the twist - do this whether the argument is right or wrong. Do it without any regard for the merits of the targeted argument. This will add a nice frisson of danger to the proceedings, like sticking a live bullet in the chamber of an empty revolver.

If you truly love trainwrecks, stick a tie across the rails now and then.

[newhaul]

Next time there is an oil trail derailment we know what way to look I suppose

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Only Green Lives Matter Exile...
Remember that part of the MMGW Cult is the belief that we need to shrink the Global Population. It's why they don't mind all the deaths from Malaria of the poor when they banned DDT. Only Mother Gia Matters as the hezboenvironmentalists say...let them die for the good of Mother Earth.

Before you attack...you had better do a little google search because what I said above is true...will you have the courage to believe it is another matter.

Rich...you crack me up!

Originally Posted by adoxograph

Honestly, this thread has become plain stupid and ceased to be fun a while ago. It's like watching a bunch of kids in the sandpit discussing, what the cake they made out of wet sand will taste like - chocolate or strawberry's. They don't want to see that nothing they say will change the fact that it is a not a real cake.

...and about 6 kids at that...

[SV THIRD DAY]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

Rich...you crack me up!

Finally someone gets it...and with that, I'm done for the day...Mission Accomplished (said while wearing my MMGW Flight suit...ha ha)

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Or you can do like fryewe and a few others do and cite these crap sites like they're unvarnished truth. Preach unto them, rev.

I prefer not to preach. Kinda presumptuous, no? Better to try persuasion & logic when/if possible. But you have just provided another well-timed example of "progressive" intolerance on full display, thanks. Especially when all you have to do is read a bit past the headlines or simply not read it. But why simply ignore something that displeases you when you can try and marginalize it, or even better, ban it!

Nice misread. I was referring to "safe" countries - eg the recent attacks in Europe. I don't think Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, and Syria would be considered safe. As the link says:

Just 2.6 percent of deaths in 21st-century terror attacks took place in Western countries, which include the United States, Canada, Australia and Europe nations. Excluding those who died on 9/11, that figure is just 0.5 percent.

Except Kerry didn't limit his comparison of the dangers of MMGW to terrorist casualties in "safe" countries, but to terrorism in general and ISIS attacks in particular. Why get all hot & bothered about sensational journalism when the internet quickly allows you to find the original source? (see, in particular, para. 7) http://www.state.gov/secretary/remar...401.htmhttp://

It goes on to say:

Large-scale attacks coordinated by international terrorist groups (such as 9/11 attacks and the recent deadly assault on Paris) garner a disproportionate amount of media attention. But so-called lone wolves — individuals or small groups working without the aid of a larger organization — are responsible for 70 percent of terrorism deaths in the West, and that number is rising. The Boston Marathon bombings are an example of a lone wolf attack, as were the 2011 Norway attacks that killed 77 people.

Tackling organized terrorists is hard enough. This lone wolf stuff...

The PBS article was from Nov. 2015. There have been several rather memorable terrorist attacks in the West and around the world since, as you may recall. Not sure of your logic in parceling out 'lone wolf' attacks over others (esp. when this is often not known), or attacks by country or region for that matter, but it might be more relevant to look at how many lives have been lost from high CO2 levels.

The only "propagation" was done by your apparently preferred flavour of "news" sites, and by fryewe in his post here.

Spin it any way you want, but no matter the headline, Kerry stated that the danger from MMGW was comparable to that from terrorism. This is a common meme we have heard again & again and one I strongly suspect you agree with. MMGW is an uncertain, controversial, complex scientific theory that nobody has been identified as having died from. Terrorism is a growing, worldwide epidemic that is causing increasing bloodshed and turmoil around the world. The comparison is laughable, and the media you don't like realized this and probably made a killing spoofing it with their goofy but entertaining headlines.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Oh I did, before I asked, thanks all the same. But you're helping me make my point: Kerry never said "AIR CONDITIONERS AS BIG A THREAT AS ISIS". And the list makes pretty clear the slant and intent of the "news" sites that did pick it up.

Now, the one quote given:
...is not terribly well-calibrated as a public utterance, given the recent spate of ISIS-inspired lone-wolf attacks. Terrorist attacks in "safe" places are intended to grab headlines, to create chaos and fear that's orders of magnitude greater than the actual numbers of dead and injured would actually command.

Nice turn of phrase. I think I can use that:

AGW alarmism is intended to grab headlines, to create chaos and fear that's orders of magnitude greater than the actual risk.

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Only Green Lives Matter Exile...
Remember that part of the MMGW Cult is the belief that we need to shrink the Global Population. It's why they don't mind all the deaths from Malaria of the poor when they banned DDT. Only Mother Gia Matters as the hezboenvironmentalists say...let them die for the good of Mother Earth.

Before you attack...you had better do a little google search because what I said above is true...will you have the courage to believe it is another matter.

There was an article on this subject in New Scientist (British weekly science magazine) a few years ago, the estimate was about 30,000,000 deaths world wide and it stated that many areas where malaria had been almost wiped out were now being recolonized by the disease.