Cruisers Forum
 


Closed Thread
  This discussion is proudly sponsored by:
Please support our sponsors and let them know you heard about their products on Cruisers Forums. Advertise Here
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 31-05-2016, 09:21   #1156
Senior Cruiser
 
newhaul's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: puget sound washington
Boat: 1968 Islander bahama 24 hull 182, 1963 columbia 29 defender. hull # 60
Posts: 12,119
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
The tide cycle is approximately 18.5 years from lowest astronomical tide to lowest astronomical tide.
Jack you seem to be missing my point . I am wondering about lunar effect on a century scale we all learned that tides have changed in range ( high to low) on a geological time scale. A couple billion years ago the tidal range was something more in the range of a hundred feet or more whereas on the Washington coast now days the range is more like 15 feet at extreme.
Just a sidereal thing for my mind to do that's all.
__________________
Non illigitamus carborundum
newhaul is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 09:24   #1157
Registered User
 
jackdale's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Jack you seem to be missing my point . I am wondering about lunar effect on a century scale we all learned that tides have changed in range ( high to low) on a geological time scale. A couple billion years ago the tidal range was something more in the range of a hundred feet or more whereas on the Washington coast now days the range is more like 15 feet at extreme.
Just a sidereal thing for my mind to do that's all.
OK - have fun.
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 10:50   #1158
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Back to some analysis of what may fairly be deemed scientific "facts:"

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Some other facts

1) CO2 is a greenhouse gas. That has been known for about 200 years.

Good one. No controversy. Only caveat is that CO2 is not considered a "pollutant" I believe (even though some may refer to it as such in laymen terms). On the contrary, it is essential to sustaining life on earth. Still unclear to me what concentrations cause it to be harmful to plants, animals & humans, apart from some (disputed) info you've provided about apparent lowered plant nutritional content.

2) Using carbon isotope analysis, the 40% increase in CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution can be linked directly to the burning of fossil fuels, a human activity.

I think this one may be uncontroversial as well, although I recall some back & forth about the technology that allows science to distinguish btwn. CO2 derived from different sources. Wood burning? Maybe someone who knows or can recall can weigh in.

3) The last time CO2 levels were 400 ppm was 3-5 million years ago.

The overview from the NAS says 400,000 years. But why quibble over such small numbers?

4) Using ice core CO2 levels fluctuated between 180 and 300 ppm for at least 800,000 years prior to the industrial revolution.

I recall the reliability of ice core measurements, along with tree rings, is occasioned by a degree of scientific controversy. Not sure if this puts it outside the "reasonable degree of scientific reliability" test.

5) Natural cycles worked well in maintaining a "Goldilocks" world in which human beings evolved and their food crops evolved and were domesticated.

You've often repeated this quip, but I'm still not sure what it means. As flushed out in the other thread, the IPCC apparently estimates (as of the 1990's) the gross percentage of anthropogenic CO2 at 3% of the total, the rest derived from "natural" sources. The argument that this 3% nevertheless exceeds the capacity of the sinks to absorb sounds viable, but given all the unknowns about such negative feedback processes it hardly seems factual or a widely accepted theory. Maybe this one should go in a different category?

Your last sentence is a policy concern that should use science as a basis for its direction.
Absolutely. But policy concerns should be entirely dependent on a reasonable degree of scientific certainty. Agreed?

What I find most interesting is what you have not included on your list as scientific "facts," for example:

a) the relationship btwn. anthropogenic CO2 and warming;

b) the relationship btwn. any human-caused warming and sea level rise, retreating glaciers, melting polar ice, coral bleaching, increased storm activity.

In other words, your list relies on people assuming that higher CO2 levels created by fossil fuel emissions are simply "bad." If higher CO2 is the only "fact," then the rest is some level of theory which, in turn, must be judged at whatever level of certainty science bestows upon it.
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 10:52   #1159
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Munich Re keeps tabs on such data. Notice that geological events have remained somewhat static. Weather and climatological related events are on the increase.

I think you need another sentence here that makes the connection btwn. MMGW and the increase in such events. There are many natural causes that can explain as well.
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 10:55   #1160
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
6) Despite never ending research focusing mostly on the potentially detrimental effects of greenhouse gas related climate warming, no actual detrimental effects unequivocally reasonably attributable solely mostly to global warming have yet occurred despite almost twenty years having passed since the cries of alarm began.
I believe this may also qualify as scientific "fact," although it can arguably be taken further as the edits above suggest.
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 10:57   #1161
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
Are the seas actually dropping or is the land RISING?

Maybe the entire continent will CAPSIZE due to too many people. LOL


Wow, that's pretty sad. Fair to say that the US govt. isn't exactly attracting the "best and the brightest" anymore.
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 11:02   #1162
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
And to add the extra whipped cream...





Has sea level not been progressively rising at any time within the current interglacial?
Makes a lot of sense if the theory is correct that we are experiencing a long-term natural warming trend since the end of the LIA. The controversy centers around how much MMGW is contributing to the melting ice. Seems like a critical question that needs to have some higher degree of certainty before we invest so much trying to keep higher temps in check.
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 11:07   #1163
Registered User
 
jackdale's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
I think you need another sentence here that makes the connection btwn. MMGW and the increase in such events. There are many natural causes that can explain as well.
I answered your assertion. You were wrong. Now you want to change the playing field. Typical.
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 11:10   #1164
Registered User
 
jackdale's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Makes a lot of sense if the theory is correct that we are experiencing a long-term natural warming trend since the end of the LIA. The controversy centers around how much MMGW is contributing to the melting ice. Seems like a critical question that needs to have some higher degree of certainty before we invest so much trying to keep higher temps in check.
Natural cycles: solar, Milankovitch etc.. would have us in a cooling trend. We are not cooling. Therefore, something unnatural is causing the warming. Not a hard concept.
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 11:54   #1165
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Natural cycles: solar, Milankovitch etc.. would have us in a cooling trend. We are not cooling. Therefore, something unnatural is causing the warming. Not a hard concept.
No, not a hard concept if the theory that natural forces support a cooling trend was a scientific fact or widely-accepted theory. But it's not. When you repeatedly represent it as such, and then posters like me discover that your purported "fact" is widely disputed within the scientific community, then your assertions become less reliable. We just saw this pattern repeated in your colloquy with Sailorchic over the disputed science over the impact of solar variability on climate. Your evidence is usually well-supported, but your constantly overstating its level of acceptance is more often than not misleading. I'm sure it's frustrating for you but, under the circumstances, the continued skepticism is also quite understandable.
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 12:00   #1166
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I answered your assertion. You were wrong. Now you want to change the playing field. Typical.
Well again, the piece of evidence you offered showed an increase in storms & other meteorological events, but there are other studies that show the opposite. Not sure that makes either of us "wrong," but possibly not fully informed.

Same playing field, you just haven't reasonably made the connection btwn. all of the predicted increase in storm activity & other catastrophic weather events that Hansen and other alarmists have long attributed to human causes.
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 12:36   #1167
Registered User
 
jackdale's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
No, not a hard concept if the theory that natural forces support a cooling trend was a scientific fact or widely-accepted theory. But it's not. When you repeatedly represent it as such, and then posters like me discover that your purported "fact" is widely disputed within the scientific community, then your assertions become less reliable. We just saw this pattern repeated in your colloquy with Sailorchic over the disputed science over the impact of solar variability on climate. Your evidence is usually well-supported, but your constantly overstating its level of acceptance is more often than not misleading. I'm sure it's frustrating for you but, under the circumstances, the continued skepticism is also quite understandable.
More vague unsupported assertions. Can be have some substance instead of this mush?

Until then I get something meaningful from you I will spend my time and effort elsewhere.
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 13:59   #1168
Registered User
 
jackdale's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

A unique representation of global warming from Ed HAwkins.



The animated spiral presents global temperature change in a visually appealing and straightforward way. The pace of change is immediately obvious, especially over the past few decades. The relationship between current global temperatures and the internationally discussed target limits are also clear without much complex interpretation needed.

Spiralling global temperatures | Climate Lab Book
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 15:07   #1169
Senior Cruiser
 
StuM's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43 and OPBs
Posts: 12,888
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

More settled science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Mars is APPROXIMATELY the same mass as the Moon,
Mars is nearly 9 times the mass of the moon.

Moon radius 1.737 million metres
Mars radius 2.29 million metres

Moon density 3.34 g/cm3
Mars Density 3.93 g/cm3

Ratio of Mars to Moon radius = 1.95
Ratio of Mars to Moon volume (4/3 Pi r^3) = 7.42
Ratio of Mass 7.42 * 3.93/3.34 = 8.73

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
tidal gravitational forces vary as the THIRD power of the separation
Wrong again. It varies as the SQUARE of distance.
StuM is offline   Reply
Old 31-05-2016, 15:24   #1170
Registered User
 
jackdale's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
More settled science?



Mars is nearly 9 times the mass of the moon.

Moon radius 1.737 million metres
Mars radius 2.29 million metres

Moon density 3.34 g/cm3
Mars Density 3.93 g/cm3

Ratio of Mars to Moon radius = 1.95
Ratio of Mars to Moon volume (4/3 Pi r^3) = 7.42
Ratio of Mass 7.42 * 3.93/3.34 = 8.73



Wrong again. It varies as the SQUARE of distance.
Thanks for the corrections.

Sent from my SM-G900W8 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Closed Thread

Tags
arc, cooling, cruising

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
I love cruising because it teaches humility zboss General Sailing Forum 38 17-09-2014 19:38
A Boat Is Better than a Wife, Because . . . BlueWaterSail Flotsam & Sailing Miscellany 94 20-02-2011 19:10
Current Strategies in Solar Power ? Roy M Electrical: Batteries, Generators & Solar 47 18-07-2010 05:37
i'm Really a Tiller Guy, because i Like the Responsiveness of a Multihull... Pipeline Multihull Sailboats 2 08-01-2010 07:32
Men return to Mountains and to the Sea because.... JohnnyB Challenges 4 10-10-2008 08:48

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:42.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.