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Old 19-06-2016, 06:03   #1471
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Will Greenland become green with trees again? Just wondering.
A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs
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Abstract

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.[...]


Figure 1.

Areas suitable for trees according to the treeline model as well as current natural and planted occurrences of selected native and non-native tree and shrub species. (a,b) Current projections of the treeline model with two Digital Elevation Models of different resolution: 30-m (light green) and 30″ (approx. 700-m, dark green). Black circles indicate areas where non-native trees or shrubs have been planted (see the electronic supplementary material, appendix S2 for details). Qinngua valley: locality with natural woodland vegetation mentioned in the text. In (b), black and grey dots represent known native occurrences of B. pubescens and So. groenlandica, respectively. (c–f) Projections of suitable areas for tree growth at (c) 2 kyr ago, (d) 4 kyr ago, (e) 6 kyr ago and (f) 9 kyr ago, respectively. (g–j) Future projections: (g) A1b, 2050, (h) A1b, 2100, (i) A2, 2050 (j) A2, 2100. Past and future projections at the 30″ resolution. The number of GCMs for which suitable conditions are projected is shown.



Figure 5.

Areas of analogous climate. Analogous climates were calculated with niche breadths of 5, 25 and 50% (columns 1–3, see text and electronic supplementary material, appendix S4 for details). (a–c) Climates in North America and Eurasia analogous to those of Greenland. The value of each cell in North America and Eurasia represents the area in Greenland with analogous climate conditions, calculated as a percentage of Greenland's total ice-free area. (d–f) Climates in Greenland analogous to those of Eurasia. The value of each cell in Greenland represents the area in Eurasia with analogous climate conditions. (g–i) Climates in Greenland analogous to those of North America. The legend is plotted with Natural Breaks (Jenks). The values at the bottom of each plot give its range of values, with minimum values in red and maximum values in blue.
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Old 19-06-2016, 07:58   #1472
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Will Greenland become green with trees again? Just wondering.
As a Canadian, I learned this one in grade school...

"During the 980s, explorers led by Erik the Red set out from Iceland and reached the southwest coast of Greenland, found the region uninhabited, and settled there. Eirik named the island Greenland (Grænland in Old Norse and modern Icelandic, Grønland in modern Danish and Norwegian) in effect as a marketing device".

It was never green. In fact and ironically, Iceland is somewhat more green.
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Old 19-06-2016, 08:24   #1473
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Funny thing about Doctors and meds.

Local GP's will load a patient up on a variety, I kid you not, I would often see patients come into the hospital with a daily prescription of 20 meds, which according to patient "were vital to their wellbeing" and then watch my staff reduce the med list to about 3, and the patient improve almost immediately.

I learned early that less is more.

Ive never prescribed a Statin in my life. There is enough information out there for a self informed decision to be made.

I would agree that Statins are over subscribed. I was given 80mg. and saw a slow reduction of cholesterol. But when I began to exercise and go to a vegetable base diet, the numbers quickly fell to the levels I am at now.
Total cholesterol 135, HDL 37 and LDL 80. Most Americans never see numbers this good. I am currently doing 40mg. and considering going down to 20mg.
Over subscribing medications is not restricted to Satins of course. I was given around 8 different meds when I was sent home from the hospital both times. Their excuse was that it was a profile that seemed to work. One of the meds I was given was propranolol, a beta blocker, out of (I think) 18 possible side effects, I had 16 of them. It was ruining my life-style. I weened myself off them and other numbers started improving.
I guess the point I'm trying to make is that we as individuals are in charge of our own lives....not the medical field. There is a lot of good information out their. Read enough and you can eventually draw a good conclusion. In my case natural remedies (exercise and diet change) did more than a pile of meds but the one med seems to keep the numbers in check.
I know this has little to do with climate change but I was just responding to a comment made earlier regarding Statins. Sorry for the drift.
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Old 19-06-2016, 09:12   #1474
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Over subscribing medications is not restricted to Statins of course.
...
I guess the point I'm trying to make is that we as individuals are in charge of our own lives....not the medical field. There is a lot of good information out their. Read enough and you can eventually draw a good conclusion. In my case natural remedies (exercise and diet change) did more than a pile of meds but the one med seems to keep the numbers in check.
I know this has little to do with climate change but I was just responding to a comment made earlier regarding Statins. Sorry for the drift.
My elderly Mom unfortunately has a physician who mostly "phones it in" - she doesn't spend alot of time reviewing meds and their combinations, or delving deep into the patient's real needs and issues. She just responds to whatever crisis or event is presented during the visit.

One of Mom's specialists, an internist who actually gives a sh!t, reviewed Mom's meds and history, and made some significant changes which produced an immediate improvement. So, like you said, you have to be your own advocate and an educated customer. Most doctors are happy to work with an informed patient, especially when the patient is willing to make lifestyle improvements.

[and my apologies also to any who came here to bicker about AGW . Rest assured, it will break out again.]
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Old 19-06-2016, 11:37   #1475
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by Celestialsailor View Post
I would agree that Statins are over subscribed. I was given 80mg. and saw a slow reduction of cholesterol. But when I began to exercise and go to a vegetable base diet, the numbers quickly fell to the levels I am at now.
Total cholesterol 135, HDL 37 and LDL 80. Most Americans never see numbers this good. I am currently doing 40mg. and considering going down to 20mg.
Over subscribing medications is not restricted to Satins of course. I was given around 8 different meds when I was sent home from the hospital both times. Their excuse was that it was a profile that seemed to work. One of the meds I was given was propranolol, a beta blocker, out of (I think) 18 possible side effects, I had 16 of them. It was ruining my life-style. I weened myself off them and other numbers started improving.
I guess the point I'm trying to make is that we as individuals are in charge of our own lives....not the medical field. There is a lot of good information out their. Read enough and you can eventually draw a good conclusion. In my case natural remedies (exercise and diet change) did more than a pile of meds but the one med seems to keep the numbers in check.
I know this has little to do with climate change but I was just responding to a comment made earlier regarding Statins. Sorry for the drift.
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My elderly Mom unfortunately has a physician who mostly "phones it in" - she doesn't spend alot of time reviewing meds and their combinations, or delving deep into the patient's real needs and issues. She just responds to whatever crisis or event is presented during the visit.

One of Mom's specialists, an internist who actually gives a sh!t, reviewed Mom's meds and history, and made some significant changes which produced an immediate improvement. So, like you said, you have to be your own advocate and an educated customer. Most doctors are happy to work with an informed patient, especially when the patient is willing to make lifestyle improvements.

[and my apologies also to any who came here to bicker about AGW . Rest assured, it will break out again.]
A couple of important examples that are worth the thread drift, imho. I'd like to think most docs give a sh!t, but feel pressured into practicing a lot of defensive medicine, whether that pressure is valid or not. Great to hear that diet & exercise has worked out so well for you CS, although for some there seems to be a genetic predisposition to high cholesterol and its ill effects (for many) on the heart & arteries. I have one friend who's thin, is a hardcore cyclist, and is religious about his diet. I'm sure that all helps but he still has had to undergo a couple of bypass surgeries. And then, of course, obesity has become epidemic in the past 20-30 yrs., and most don't have CS's discipline to make the needed lifestyle changes. Obesity seems to be root cause of all sorts of diseases, or so I've been told.

And good news about your Mom, L-E. As for the AGW bickering, there's no need to wait for it to break out again when most of SailOar's rather fatalistic posts about the dire impacts of CC make it all too clear that, if true, adaptation will HAVE to be a major component of any human response. Also seems to me that such alarmism risks having the opposite effect, namely people themselves becoming fatalistic about the cost & utility of supporting the very mitigation measures you and others wish to impose. We already know how such alarmism about events which have not transpired has damaged the credibility of the AGW proponents, most notably many of the scientists themselves.
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Old 19-06-2016, 11:55   #1476
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

The prescribers have too little knowledge of their drugs. Basically what is told them by the company reps and by colleagues experience with certain combinations etc.

I have always tended to work WITH the organism than suppress it. Its not always the easy route for the patient who is expecting the magic pill. Changing diet, lifestyle and mental outlook along with the correct SHORT TERM medication in most cases is enough. When certain organs have failed, then support mechanisms will have to be used, yet if we can get them functioning again without suppressing the body's ability to heal, then that is what I go for.

There are many alternatives to Statins in managing cholestrol. Most medicines are not curative in action. I always look for for the one that gives cure an opportunity rather than just mask the symptoms.

But then we live in the "fix my headache NOW with an aspirin" society....
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Old 19-06-2016, 12:43   #1477
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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The prescribers have too little knowledge of their drugs. Basically what is told them by the company reps and by colleagues experience with certain combinations etc.

I have always tended to work WITH the organism than suppress it. Its not always the easy route for the patient who is expecting the magic pill. Changing diet, lifestyle and mental outlook along with the correct SHORT TERM medication in most cases is enough. When certain organs have failed, then support mechanisms will have to be used, yet if we can get them functioning again without suppressing the body's ability to heal, then that is what I go for.

There are many alternatives to Statins in managing cholestrol. Most medicines are not curative in action. I always look for for the one that gives cure an opportunity rather than just mask the symptoms.

But then we live in the "fix my headache NOW with an aspirin" society....
Thanx for this. It about sums it up. I wish I had you for a Dr. Not sure if you are in the US but I had Kaiser medical and will never make that mistake again. It's more like a machine than a caring center.
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Old 19-06-2016, 14:08   #1478
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Thanx for this. It about sums it up. I wish I had you for a Dr. Not sure if you are in the US but I had Kaiser medical and will never make that mistake again. It's more like a machine than a caring center.
I was in the US for 14 years and managed a public health unit for a while. Not a pleasant experience for me or the owners... difficult to explain a higher cure rate with diminishing drug usage..... Less 'benefits' to the group...
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Old 19-06-2016, 15:08   #1479
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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The huge GHG contribution of belching livestock specifically & agriculture generally is astounding. Don't doubt the stats, just find the % much higher than I would have ever imagined.
Compared to the vast herds that used to exist (e.g. North America's Bison), the herds of today contribute the square root of sweet FA.

Doesn't the methane production of just termites absolutely dwarf that anyway?

Then of course there's the methane producers in the Oceans, which make up over 70% of the World's surface . . . .

Don't disparage "Doing nothing."

Far more frequently than some of you seem to even begin to appreciate, doing nothing is far and away the best option. It is indeed a highly valuable strategy, that should never be ruled out.

PS The Lipid hypothesis was debunked a very long time ago now (1950's?). Cholesterol does not seem to be the problem, it would appear to be inflammation that's the real problem, and the biggest cause of inflammation, is a high carbohydrate diet combined with low saturated (animal) fat. Fats tend to have been replaced with vegetable oils, that are mostly BAD for us (especially when hydrogenated).

The human body needs zero carbohydrates, yet high carb and low fat is what has been pushed at us as important, for about 50 years.

A link to someone who 'gets it' - https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231438

PS. This is why Sweden, after considering over 14,000 studies, has acknowledged that its prior dietary advice was WRONG, and has revised its dietary advice as a result.
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Old 19-06-2016, 15:46   #1480
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Compared to the vast herds that used to exist (e.g. North America's Bison), the herds of today contribute the square root of sweet FA.

Doesn't the methane production of just termites absolutely dwarf that anyway?

Then of course there's the methane producers in the Oceans, which make up over 70% of the World's surface . . . .

Don't disparage "Doing nothing."

Far more frequently than some of you seem to even begin to appreciate, doing nothing is far and away the best option. It is indeed a highly valuable strategy, that should never be ruled out.

PS The Lipid hypothesis was debunked a very long time ago now (1950's?). Cholesterol does not seem to be the problem, it would appear to be inflammation that's the real problem, and the biggest cause of inflammation, is a high carbohydrate diet combined with low saturated (animal) fat. Fats tend to have been replaced with vegetable oils, that are mostly BAD for us (especially when hydrogenated).

The human body needs zero carbohydrates, yet high carb and low fat is what has been pushed at us as important, for about 50 years.

A link to someone who 'gets it' - https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231438

PS. This is why Sweden, after considering over 14,000 studies, has acknowledged that its prior dietary advice was WRONG, and has revised its dietary advice as a result.
There is no way on earth that the North American Bisen herds were ever greater than the worlds meat herds today I'd really like to see a reference to that.

And Termites the amount of studies done on termites is staggering. And NO, their methane levels, whilst vast in number, do not dwarf the worlds cow herds.

https://www3.epa.gov/ttnchie1/ap42/c...nal/c14s02.pdf
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Old 19-06-2016, 16:06   #1481
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Compared to the vast herds that used to exist (e.g. North America's Bison), the herds of today contribute the square root of sweet FA.[...]
Wild Ruminants Burp Methane, too | Penn State Extension
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[...] Overall, methane emissions from bison, elk, and deer in the pre-settlement period in the contiguous United States were about 70% (medium bison population size) of the current emissions from farmed ruminants in the U.S. [high estimate (75 million bison), medium estimate (50 million bison), and low estimate (30 million bison)]; data for current (2008) methane and GHG emissions in the U.S. are from the EPA “Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2008” report. If the high bison population estimate is taken for this comparison, wild ruminants in the pre-settlement period emitted as much methane as the current domestic ruminants in the United States. Present-day livestock methane emissions are primarily from cattle; the contribution of sheep and goats to the total emissions is miniscule (about 1%). Estimates for methane emissions from horses (about 0.17 Tg/yr) and swine (about 0.10 Tg/yr) were published by EPA but are not included in this analysis. It is worth mentioning that in this most recent EPA report, GHG emissions from agriculture made up about 6% of the total GHG emission in the U.S. for 2008 (427.5 vs. 6,956.8 Tg CO2 Eq./yr, respectively). Methane from enteric fermentation was 140.8 Tg CO2 Eq./yr, representing 25% of total methane emissions in the U.S. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from enteric fermentation and manure management (i.e., the total livestock contribution to GHG emissions) was 202.9 Tg CO2 Eq./yr, or 47% of the agricultural emission, but only 2.9% of all GHG emissions in the U.S.

Present-day methane emissions from wild ruminants (excluding moose, mountain sheep, goat, antelope, and caribou) were also estimated. Population data were from the Feldhamer book (bison and deer), or the RMEF (elk). Body weight, DMI, and methane emission per unit of DMI were the same as for the pre-settlement calculations. With these assumptions, it can be estimated that present-day methane emission from the major wild ruminant species in the U.S. are about 0.23 Tg/yr, which is only 3.6% of the emissions from domestic ruminants. Due to its population size (estimated at 25 million; Miller et al., 2003) the white-tailed deer is the largest present-day wild ruminant contributor to GHG emissions in the contiguous United States. [...]
I'm not sure if it is particularly useful to compare today's cattle emissions to yesterday's wild-ruminant emissions. If we humans are producing too much greenhouse gasses, and if we elect to cut back on those emissions, then we have a choice of which sources we reduce. It could be from reduced concrete production, or burning less fossil fuel, or by raising fewer cattle -- or all of the above.
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Old 19-06-2016, 16:17   #1482
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Wild Ruminants Burp Methane, too | Penn State Extension

I'm not sure if it is particularly useful to compare today's cattle emissions to yesterday's wild-ruminant emissions. If we humans are producing too much greenhouse gasses, and if we elect to cut back on those emissions, then we have a choice of which sources we reduce. It could be from reduced concrete production, or burning less fossil fuel, or by raising fewer cattle -- or all of the above.
so we should eat more deer

And there is somewhere around 1.5 billion cattle in the world today to the millions of Buffalo that were.. That's a lot of burgers.
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Old 19-06-2016, 19:28   #1483
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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As for the AGW bickering, there's no need to wait for it.
Thanks for getting us back on track.

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... most of SailOar's rather fatalistic posts about the dire impacts of CC make it all too clear that, if true, adaptation will HAVE to be a major component of any human response.
  1. I don't find SailOar's postings of relevant stories to be fatalistic or alarmist, especially when in response to denial.
  2. Describe your 'adaptation', and in particular why you think a proactive response to AGW isn't part of 'adaptation'.

If I'm slow to the bait, don't worry, it's because I've been sailing alot
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Old 19-06-2016, 20:38   #1484
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Thanks for getting us back on track.



  1. I don't find SailOar's postings of relevant stories to be fatalistic or alarmist, especially when in response to denial.
  2. Describe your 'adaptation', and in particular why you think a proactive response to AGW isn't part of 'adaptation'.

If I'm slow to the bait, don't worry, it's because I've been sailing alot
Good for you. You guys have a short season so you have to get your sailing in as much as you can while you can.

I think it's tough to talk realistically about adaptation until scientists can provide us with more realistic, credible, and less controversial predictions of impacts. Your denier, etc. labels don't matter, nor does SailOar's alarmist posts. Unless you guys are interested in further alienating as many skeptics as possible, thereby frustrating any policy efforts you favor.
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Old 19-06-2016, 21:14   #1485
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I think it's tough to talk realistically about adaptation until scientists can provide us with more realistic, credible, and less controversial predictions of impacts. .
OK

These are the trees NASA predicts will get hit hardest by climate change

http://flip.it/hW1nN

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