Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 10-06-2016, 10:31   #1366
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
New graph as of yesterday. Check out nsidc for yourself. Antarctic ice is also below the mean

Amundson took 3 years to get through the NWP. Currently many yachts get through in one summer.

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
What would be relevant here is if the science knows or can theorize whether the current ice retreat is unprecedented, at least since humans have been around. At a minimum, the science seems to agree that there are many factors other than temperature, but the debate lies in how much of it is human-caused via higher temps. There is evidence that overall avg. global warming has been less than 1.5 since 1860, but is apparently higher in the polar regions (thanks SailOar). But 18 higher on avg. in the Arctic as one of SailOar's articles stated??

Since you follow Judith Curry's blog, I thought you might have some insight on this, namely the degree of scientific certainty that Arctic sea ice melt is predominantly a result of human-caused higher temps as opposed to wind, currents, surrounding land formations, etc., as theorized by Curry & others? To that end, your recent posts imply that this level of ice melt/retreat is unprecedented. Highly relevant it seems. True or false, if you know?
__________________

__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 10:34   #1367
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,001
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Unless I'm not seeing this correctly there seems to be very limited melting of sea ice throughout the archipelago over the last several days
Environment and Climate Change Canada - Weather and Meteorology - 10 day animation map
The ice clears from west to east. The west is pretty clear.

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________

__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 10:40   #1368
Marine Service Provider
 
newhaul's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: puget sound washington
Boat: 1968 Islander bahama 24 hull 182, 1963 columbia 29 defender. hull # 60
Posts: 2,978
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
The ice clears from west to east. The west is pretty clear.

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
I guess I'm missing something . The site I linked to that you gave me seems to show more melt happening east of the archipelagos not to the west of them. With no apreciable melt actually in them.
__________________
Non illigitamus carborundum
newhaul is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 11:22   #1369
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,001
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
I guess I'm missing something . The site I linked to that you gave me seems to show more melt happening east of the archipelagos not to the west of them. With no apreciable melt actually in them.
Read the legend. Blue is less than 1/10 covered.

NSIDC shows at least 3 SD below the mean.

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 11:45   #1370
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
It's curious how you can dismiss everything BUT "adaptation", yet don't acknowledge what it might entail.

I'm not surprised you're not personally feeling more "comfortable" with my opinions, but that doesn't justify the continued mischaracterizations. The more intelligent and conscientious response would be to tell me what realistic alternatives you have to adaptation. If it's the fantasy proposals from Paris, then we'll just have to respectfully disagree. I would certainly support more nuclear, am hopeful but realistic about improved efficiencies & lower costs for solar, wind, thermal, and hydro, and am confident about the development of future technologies. This applies whether the theory of MMGW pans out or not. As I've already said, what adaptation entails depends entirely on how much certainty there is on potential changes to the climate that are likely to manifest. Thus far none of the alarmist predictions have been borne out, and the state of the current modeling technology used for anticipating the future looks flawed.

I've offered my opinion -- I knew you wouldn't like it but there ya go. Since you are one of the most vociferous proponents for "doing something" but have thus far offered "nothing" as far as proposals or action, I'd suggest it's your turn. Should you bestow upon us with an actual answer rather than more gamesmanship, I have some stock predictions I'd like some advice from you on as well.


Since you haven't apparently grasped that the largest consumption of fossil-fuel energy is by the industrial, transport and commercial sectors, not individual consumers, your dismissal of carbon pricing mechanisms is not exactly persuasive.

Elaboration needed please. The industrial/commercial sectors have less discretion on their fossil fuel consumption than the individual consumer sector. So taxes at the wellhead/source for them necessarily raise costs for all the goods & services they produce. Even if "green checks/"refunds" are issued as offsets, how does this reduce consumption/emissions? Please explain.

Dismissing everything + proposing nothing = doing nothing.

Suggestions? Do you have an example I could follow? I like Newhaul's approach of living on the boat, but would prefer a warmer part of the world. Shall I find an add'l bin to further separate my recyclables? Drive a Prius? Put a groovy green bumper sticker on it in the hopes of influencing others with my virtue? How about silencing my skepticism so the debate becomes less frustrating for you? Yesterday I heard Hillary also "saying" we have to "do something about CC" but proposing nothing. Do you think just voting for her and putting her campaign logo on my motorcycle would be enough?

See above. Whenever you're ready. Engage.
I'm ready, all ears, keyboard set. While I've objected to Jack's, SailOar's, and others' approaches at times, there's no question they've contributed to these threads. Thus far you've struck me as the most vociferous complainer about other peoples' posts, yet have contributed the least with your own. Or is loudly criticizing others' opinions your one & only "contribution" to your obviously very personal & emotional cause?
__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 13:00   #1371
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,001
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
What would be relevant here is if the science knows or can theorize whether the current ice retreat is unprecedented, at least since humans have been around. At a minimum, the science seems to agree that there are many factors other than temperature, but the debate lies in how much of it is human-caused via higher temps. There is evidence that overall avg. global warming has been less than 1.5 since 1860, but is apparently higher in the polar regions (thanks SailOar). But 18 higher on avg. in the Arctic as one of SailOar's articles stated??

Since you follow Judith Curry's blog, I thought you might have some insight on this, namely the degree of scientific certainty that Arctic sea ice melt is predominantly a result of human-caused higher temps as opposed to wind, currents, surrounding land formations, etc., as theorized by Curry & others? To that end, your recent posts imply that this level of ice melt/retreat is unprecedented. Highly relevant it seems. True or false, if you know?
I have previously posted that wind, especially the Arctic gyre, is a factor in the distibution of Artcic sea ice. But wind does not melt sea ice, temperature increases do. Arctic sea ice volumes continue to decline. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/piomas/

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 13:14   #1372
Registered User

Join Date: May 2011
Location: Toronto
Boat: Sandpiper 565
Posts: 2,816
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
I would certainly support more nuclear, am hopeful but realistic about improved efficiencies & lower costs for solar, wind, thermal, and hydro, and am confident about the development of future technologies.


. So, what measures would you approve of to foster such advances?

Quote:
As I've already said, what adaptation entails depends entirely on how much certainty there is on potential changes to the climate that are likely to manifest.
It depends as much or more on willingness to act based on reasonable forecasts. How certain is certain? When we hit or exceed the predicted temps through inaction?

Quote:
The industrial/commercial sectors have less discretion on their fossil fuel consumption than the individual consumer sector. So taxes at the wellhead/source for them necessarily raise costs for all the goods & services they produce. Even if "green checks/"refunds" are issued as offsets, how does this reduce consumption/emissions? Please explain.
I would think it's Capitalism 101, industry changing their energy mix to seek the lowest overall cost, which means a shift from fossil-fuel. For a report on one functioning program, consider this. The various carbon-reduction proposals are well covered on the Internet, if you're still curious.


__________________
Lake-Effect is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 13:53   #1373
Marine Service Provider
 
newhaul's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: puget sound washington
Boat: 1968 Islander bahama 24 hull 182, 1963 columbia 29 defender. hull # 60
Posts: 2,978
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Read the legend. Blue is less than 1/10 covered.

NSIDC shows at least 3 SD below the mean.

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
Yes jack I got that however also white is 10/10 or 100% ie: solid ice.
Grey is 80% to 90 % and so on.
The biggest problem is that all the ice sites are different in their reported ice coverage. Personally that makes me suspect of all of their reported ice coverage.
__________________
Non illigitamus carborundum
newhaul is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 15:13   #1374
Registered User
 
Reefmagnet's Avatar

Join Date: May 2008
Location: puɐןsuǝǝnb 'ʎɐʞɔɐɯ
Boat: Nantucket Island 33
Posts: 2,712
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I have previously posted that wind, especially the Arctic gyre, is a factor in the distibution of Artcic sea ice. But wind does not melt sea ice, temperature increases do. Arctic sea ice volumes continue to decline. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/piomas/

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
I'm no meteorological expert but, using El Nino as an example, I'd be very surprised if wind patterns - both short and long term - had no effect on ice. Ditto for ocean currents.
__________________
Reefmagnet is online now   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 15:21   #1375
Registered User
 
Reefmagnet's Avatar

Join Date: May 2008
Location: puɐןsuǝǝnb 'ʎɐʞɔɐɯ
Boat: Nantucket Island 33
Posts: 2,712
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
You miss the point. There's being REACTIVE, which is... moving inland, fighting over dwindling resources, pollution masks, etc... and there's being PROACTIVE, which is to act now to minimize future harm, plan for changes, build reserves...

Humans will adapt to voluntarily modifying some destructive behaviours, and humans will also adapt to the worse mess that will occur if we do nothing. I know which situation I'd prefer to leave for our descendents.
You know, it is possible to take "proactive" steps to conserve the environment in addition to adapting to it's changing state. It's very simplistic thinking to believe otherwise.

Sent from my SGP521 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
Reefmagnet is online now   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 15:26   #1376
Registered User

Join Date: May 2011
Location: Toronto
Boat: Sandpiper 565
Posts: 2,816
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
You know, it is possible to take "proactive" steps to conserve the environment in addition to adapting to it's changing state. It's very simplistic thinking to believe otherwise.
Exactly. Thank you.

What proactive steps do you think we should be taking?
__________________
Lake-Effect is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 15:47   #1377
Registered User
 
Reefmagnet's Avatar

Join Date: May 2008
Location: puɐןsuǝǝnb 'ʎɐʞɔɐɯ
Boat: Nantucket Island 33
Posts: 2,712
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Exactly. Thank you.

What proactive steps do you think we should be taking?
Beats me.














Or maybe...

Drive a smaller car; live in a smaller house; telecommute; recycle; design stuff with the objective to last longer rather than cheapness to make; teach people that last year's model still works the same this year; discourage the throw away society; restrict consumerism; avoid products with excessive packaging; avoid drinking bottled water in regions with potable water supplies; respect the environment in general; try and breed less.

For starters.
__________________
Reefmagnet is online now   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 15:58   #1378
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I have previously posted that wind, especially the Arctic gyre, is a factor in the distibution of Artcic sea ice. But wind does not melt sea ice, temperature increases do. Arctic sea ice volumes continue to decline. Arctic Sea Ice: PIOMAS

Sent from my SM-T705W using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
This answers nothing, but par for the course I guess. You are simply repeating the mainstream IPCC position, which is that temp increases caused by increases in atmospheric CO2 are causing higher temps, those temps are inflated in the Arctic, and so melting sea ice is therefore direct evidence of MMGW.

All well & good, but the counter to this from Curry & others -- as I understand it that is -- acknowledges the influence of MMGW, but believes that natural forces are the dominant influence. I learned this from a much more causal reading of JC's blog than you have stated you are engaged in.

It also answers nothing about contrary theories on the cause of the warming itself. If this level of ice melt had also occurred in the past, and certainly if it had occurred prior to the industrial revolution, such evidence could potentially confirm or dispel the mainstream position. Perhaps this historical evidence doesn't exist, except anecdotally from historical accounts of attempts to navigate the NWP. Either way, it seems kind of silly not to analyze this phenonemom without referencing dissenting views from reputable members of the scientific community.
__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 16:41   #1379
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
. So, what measures would you approve of to foster such advances?

Lots of questions from a guy who repeatedly acts as if he already knows all the answers. For starters, I would approve of YOU paying higher taxes & utility bills so that YOUR govt. could transfer more of YOUR money to the economically unviable solar & wind industries. Such public monies should go into research & development if anywhere, not to be transferred from one private source to another, especially when such recipients often have political influence and donate campaign dollars. That's called personal enrichment funded by taxpayers as opposed to publicly-supported technological research.

It depends as much or more on willingness to act based on reasonable forecasts. How certain is certain? When we hit or exceed the predicted temps through inaction?

When such forecasts are in fact based on scientific facts, or based on scientific theories that have a sufficient degree of scientific certainty. And they are communicated to us by credible politicians based on conclusions reached by objective scientific institutions.

I would think it's Capitalism 101, industry changing their energy mix to seek the lowest overall cost, which means a shift from fossil-fuel. For a report on one functioning program, consider this. The various carbon-reduction proposals are well covered on the Internet, if you're still curious.
You would think . . . . That would be Economics 101, btw. And that discipline tells us that, thus far, there is no viable alternative to fossil fuels for industry at any reasonable level of taxation. It requires massive govt subsidies, which means higher societal costs and resulting lower stds. of living. The technology has yet to arrive, and the justification has yet to be convincing.

The article on B.C. you linked to is the same one I think Jack already referred us to a couple of times now. Not sure it's about industry consumption, and not a lot of specifics mentioned so hard to judge. It reads more like a govt. marketing brochure than an objective economic analysis. Reading such materials with a bit more independent if not critical thinking can often help when confronted by such marketing/self-congratulatory material.
__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 10-06-2016, 16:45   #1380
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
Beats me.














Or maybe...

Drive a smaller car; live in a smaller house; telecommute; recycle; design stuff with the objective to last longer rather than cheapness to make; teach people that last year's model still works the same this year; discourage the throw away society; restrict consumerism; avoid products with excessive packaging; avoid drinking bottled water in regions with potable water supplies; respect the environment in general; try and breed less.

For starters.
Looking forward to reading L-E's list. Given his enthusiasm, I'm sure it's right on his fingertips.
__________________

__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Closed Thread

Tags
arc, cooling, cruising

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
I love cruising because it teaches humility zboss General Sailing Forum 38 17-09-2014 19:38
A Boat Is Better than a Wife, Because . . . BlueWaterSail Off Topic Forum 94 20-02-2011 19:10
Current Strategies in Solar Power ? Roy M Electrical: Batteries, Generators & Solar 47 18-07-2010 05:37
i'm Really a Tiller Guy, because i Like the Responsiveness of a Multihull... Pipeline Multihull Sailboats 2 08-01-2010 07:32
Men return to Mountains and to the Sea because.... JohnnyB Challenges 4 10-10-2008 08:48


Our Communities

Our communities encompass many different hobbies and interests, but each one is built on friendly, intelligent membership.

» More about our Communities

Automotive Communities

Our Automotive communities encompass many different makes and models. From U.S. domestics to European Saloons.

» More about our Automotive Communities

Marine Communities

Our Marine websites focus on Cruising and Sailing Vessels, including forums and the largest cruising Wiki project on the web today.

» More about our Marine Communities


Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:46.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.