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Old 06-06-2016, 21:02   #1306
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

A CF member's byline which StuM recently posted here (or in the other thread?). Thought it might be worth repeating at this point.

"The trouble with this world is that the ignorant are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - George Bernard Shaw
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Old 06-06-2016, 21:06   #1307
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by adoxograph View Post
I was always wondering where CH4 and other hydrocarbons in comets and asteroids are coming from. CH4 is found on Mars in suggesting that it must be replenished all the time. Let me quote a paper I wrote on hydrocarbons found on Mars:



And then I want to point to James G. Speight (2006), The Chemistry and Technology of Petroleum, Fourth Edition, Chemical Industries 114 (4, ilustraded ed.), CRC Press, p. 50, ISBN 9780849390678,



(bold font added by me)

An interesting overview of abiotic oil, including arguments for and against it, can be found here: Petroleum - Formation - Abiotic Oil Formation
It is surprising that you would call the above link to abiotic oil formation anything but the tease that it is. The idea that the oil (and natural gas and any other potential fossil fuel) that we use on Earth has any origin other than organic is not borne out by any real world experience. The opposite evidence is of course everywhere, from the source rocks that haven't been buried deeply enough to convert into them oil, to the fact that once oil is buried too deeply it changes into natural gas. Not to mention isotopic signatures or that all the oil and gas found nowadays is found using techniques derived from the 'algae buried in anoxic environment to depths conducive to cooking the preserved (undecayed) material into hydrocarbons' school of thought.

It is telling that, to date, no oil has been found using any of the 'abiotic' scenarios.

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Interesting that from the 16th century until recently this was suppressed. Thank you for this tidbit .
No one is suppressing anything, real world (scientific) experience has shown that whatever amount of hydrocarbons that are made by these 'abiotic' processes, that amount is not sufficient to be commercially exploitable (yet?... just joking).


That is not, of course, to say that the hydrocarbons (and other compounds) found and formed biogenetically on Earth are not formed by abiogenetic processes (or otherwise!) elsewhere. That mode of thinking seems somewhat provincial and chauvinistic...

It is interesting that, according to Robert Hazen anyway, that without life on Earth, the planet would be limited to the (roughly) 1500 minerals found elsewhere in the Cosmos, but, because of life processes, there are 4500 here.


A link and couple of pages from it that seems to support the biogenetic sources of both oil and coal.

http://link.springer.com/article/10....inside/001.png



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Old 06-06-2016, 21:15   #1308
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by adoxograph View Post
While sieving through old posts in this thread I found that one. This one is completely down my alley as my research field and expertise is determining spots and magnetic activities on exoplanetary host stars.

I met Prof. Valentina Zharkova at a convention in Tenarife. At breakfast one of our group called her the "ice queen" because of the storm of misinformation her paper has caused. She was not amused.

Nowhere in her paper did she mention any form of cooling. Her paper was about a model for the sun’s magnetic field and sunspots, which predicts a 60% fall in sunspot numbers when extrapolated to the 2030s.

The whole thing started when the PR guy of the Royal Society called her preparing a press release. As he did not understand "solar activities at a minimum" she said something along the line of "you know the Maunder minimum I mentioned in my paper". The overly diligent PR guy made a mini-iceage out of that and released the whole thing without her knowledge.

She regrets having done this every time a Journalist calls asking for information about global cooling predicted by her.

However, Earth's systems will always reach a state of radiative equilibrium that is

incoming radiative energy from the Sun = outgoing radiation of planet

That means that the planet is in energy balance. If a planet is not in radiative equilibrium the temperature of the planet will increase or decrease.

The amount of incoming radiation depends on the albedo of the planet or in other word the amount of incoming radiation which is not reflected back out in space. The amount of incoming radiation is determined by

P_in=(σT_⊙^4)(4πR_⊙^2)(1-a)((πR_p^2)/(4πD^2 ))

where (σT_⊙^4 )(4πR_⊙^2 ) represents the luminosity and a the albedo. Rp is the radius of the planet and D the distance to the star.

Considering the planet as a blackbody any radiation reaching the planet is radiated as heat (Stefan-Boltzman Law) as follows:

P=σAT^4

where T is temperature. A is the area (=4πR_p^2) as a planet most likely emits radiation spread over the whole surface which is close to a sphere. Therefore the outgoing radiation is

P_out=(σT_eq^4)(4πR_p^2)
where Teq is ((L_⊙ (1-a))/(16σπD^2 ))^(1/4)

Consequently the planet is in radiative equilibrium when

(σT_⊙^4 )(4πR_⊙^2 )(1-a)((πR_p^2)/(4πD^2 ))=(σT_eq^4 )(4πR_p^2 )

What does that mean for Earth? Assuming the surface of the earth without atmosphere would pretty barren I assume an albedo a=0.12 (similar to the Moon). R_⊙=6.96×10^8m, T_⊙=5778K, D=1.496×10^11m. Rearanging the above equations we can determine T_eq by

T_eq=T_⊙ (1-a)^(1/4) (R_⊙/2D)^(1/2)=5778K(1- 0.12)^(1/4) ((6.96×10^8 m)/(2*1.496×10^11 m))^(1/2)=269.9K

If we consider Earth’s real albedo of a=0.3 we get an even lower T_eq of 254.9K. The difference to the real measured average temperature on the surface of the earth of ~287K is caused by greenhouse effect of earth’s relatively thick atmosphere. So first of all we should be grateful for the greenhouse gases, because without them Earth would be a frozen ball of ice and we would most likely not exist at all.

You see solar activity plays a rather minor role. Most of the temperature control happens in the atmosphere. Maybe I'll show you how that works when I have time to prepare something.
I enjoyed your post. Thank you. Equilibrium of planetary energy. Fascinating. Do you think the winds of Saturn can have a butterfly effect on our solar system? And for that matter do you think the collective radiated energy of our solar system can have an effect on other systems? These are far more interesting questions then at what point in a warming cycle on earth will the planets equilibrium reset or will it rotate into a cooling cycle? Are one century cycles of weather over millenia revealing a balance that we see in annual weather patterns?

Sorry for going off on a tangent. I do like your subject matter.
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Old 06-06-2016, 21:21   #1309
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

I
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Originally Posted by adoxograph View Post
I was always wondering where CH4 and other hydrocarbons in comets and asteroids are coming from. CH4 is found on Mars in suggesting that it must be replenished all the time. Let me quote a paper I wrote on hydrocarbons found on Mars:



And then I want to point to James G. Speight (2006), The Chemistry and Technology of Petroleum, Fourth Edition, Chemical Industries 114 (4, ilustraded ed.), CRC Press, p. 50, ISBN 9780849390678,



(bold font added by me)

An interesting overview of abiotic oil, including arguments for and against it, can be found here: Petroleum - Formation - Abiotic Oil Formation
I have the answer. CH4 reproduces like a fungus. It is a living organic that multiplies like gerbils.
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Old 06-06-2016, 21:25   #1310
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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NASA has proved all the outer planets and Pluto have significant amounts of methane. It did not get there because lots of dinosaurs died millions of years ago.
Perhaps it was because the dinosaurs were very flatulent expelling their methane gases throughout the solar system.
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Old 06-06-2016, 22:18   #1311
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Do you think the winds of Saturn can have a butterfly effect on our solar system?
Yes, but so has everything else. The problem with the so called "Butterfly Effect" is that the outcome is not predictable. Mandelbrot tried to solve this problem by using fractal geometric models instead of euclidean.


Quote:
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And for that matter do you think the collective radiated energy of our solar system can have an effect on other systems?
Just think supernovae. A near-Earth supernova meaning 10 to 300pc away will have a near sterilisation effect on our biosphere. Such a near-Earth supernova statistically happens around every 2.4x10^8yr.

Quote:
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These are far more interesting questions then at what point in a warming cycle on earth will the planets equilibrium reset or will it rotate into a cooling cycle?
The planet is always in radiative equilibrium. Nothing will change that. The question is how much energy is trapped in the lower atmosphere. This determines the temperature on the surface. Earth with an completely transparent atmosphere and no life on it would be an average of around 269.9K which is about -3degC or 26degF

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Are one century cycles of weather over millenia revealing a balance that we see in annual weather patterns? [...]
Yes actually patterns over millenia do, but not if you look at aeons. The Mesozoic era was much warmer than it is today for a period of about 1.8x10^8yr (180million years). There were no polar icecaps back then. (I mentioned a paper about this earlier and as far as I remember SailOar posted a link to the paper)

However Earth's obliquity was different back then and so was the solar energy output (not the solar activity) which was lower (yes lower!) back then. Nevertheless, it was hot and moist with a CO2 content of over 1700, ideal for the evolution of giant (most likely) cold blooded reptiles called dinosaurs, for whom the conditions were ideal.

Only after a big rock was falling from the sky creating the Chicxulub crater and most likely subsequently causing the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction, the climate cooled down and warmblooded mammals became the dominant species.

If we are talking aeons and definitions then we are technically still in an ice age, the Pliocene-Quaternary glaciation, but in an interglacial warmer period, the Holocene to be precise. This ice age began about 2.58x10^6yr ago at the start of the Pleistocene epoch, and we are still in it as the Greenland, Arctic, and Antarctic ice sheets and all the glaciers, which are still around clearly show.

Before the current ice age Earth experienced most likely 4 more: the Huronian, the Cryogenian (my favourite as the the whole planet was a frozen snowball back then), the Andean-Saharan and the Karoo Ice Age.
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Old 06-06-2016, 23:35   #1312
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Quote:
Originally Posted by transmitterdan
NASA has proved all the outer planets and Pluto have significant amounts of methane. It did not get there because lots of dinosaurs died millions of years ago.
Perhaps it was because the dinosaurs were very flatulent expelling their methane gases throughout the solar system. Perhaps it was because the dinosaurs were very flatulent expelling their methane gases throughout the solar system.
The Jovians except Uranus have only trace amounts of methane (CH4). Uranus shows clouds of CH4 in the higher atmosphere. However the CH4 content in the Jovians and their moons is relatively constant as it does not react and therefore does not need much replenishment. The same is true for comets that formed in the outer solar system where CH4 is solid (actually its a bit more complicated, but for now...).

However Earth and Mars are different. On Earth CH4 reacts with hydroxyl (OH) in the troposphere or stratosphere and is broken into methyl (CH3) and H2O vapor as: CH4 + ·OH → ·CH3 + H2O. If it would not be replenished by biological processes there would most likely not be any CH4 left in Earths atmosphere after a while.

Mars' atmospheric pressure is much lower than Earths. Therefore a similar process as the above is reducing the CH4 content at much lower altitudes. However, that means there must be a CH4 source replenishing CH4 in order to have measurable quantities in the atmosphere.

Candidates for CH4 replenishment on Mars without lifeforms are Serpentinization (see earlier post), radiolysis of water, and pyrite formation. Those processes produce methane and other hydrocarbons with the Fischer–Tropsch process using CO and CO2.

No Dinosaur farts, I'm afraid

Are the majority of Earths hydrocarbons abiotic? As jimbunyard pointed out in his earlier post most likely not.
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Old 07-06-2016, 02:19   #1313
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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[...]

A link and couple of pages from it that seems to support the biogenetic sources of both oil and coal. [...]
I think Stahl (1979) is not a thoroughgoing choice of reference here. Firstly Stahl's text is 37 years old and science has hopefully made some progress since then. Secondly in this case I would not use C12/C13 ratio to make my point. Just look at the eclipsing binaries HD13716, carbon stars with plenty of C12 and no C13 whatsoever. No-one would claim biotic origin here

As you said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
[...]

That is not, of course, to say that the hydrocarbons (and other compounds) found and formed biogenetically on Earth are not formed by abiogenetic processes (or otherwise!) elsewhere. That mode of thinking seems somewhat provincial and chauvinistic...
Don't forget your argument works both ways. I agree with you that most of the oil found on this planet is not abiotic in origin, but as an astrophysicist I am not dismissing abiotic origin per se. I know that abiotic processes can produce a significant amount of hydrocarbons elsewhere in the cosmos and why should this planet be any different?

I would like to point you to Kenney, JF, Kutcherov, VA, Bendeliani, NA & Alekseev, VA 2002, 'The evolution of multicomponent systems at high pressures: VI. The thermodynamic stability of the hydrogen–carbon system: The genesis of hydrocarbons and the origin of petroleum', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 99, no. 17, pp. 10976-81.

Kutcherov's experiments are proving that
Quote:
application of pressures to 50 kbar and temperatures to 1,500°C upon solid (and obviously abiotic) CaCO3 and FeO wet with triple-distilled water, all in the absence of any initial hydrocarbon or biotic molecules, evolves the suite of petroleum fluids: methane, ethane, propane, butane, pentane, hexane, branched isomers of those compounds, and the lightest of the n-alkene series.
and that those hydrocarbons build under the right conditions are completely abiotic.
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Old 07-06-2016, 04:49   #1314
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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So it's only the skeptics/contrarians who post headlines without reading the articles? And you know this how?
Not what I said. You move effortlessly from decontextualization to misrepresentation, it seems. MANY of the links posted by some of our ... less rigorous anti-AGW proponents here have shiny, catchy headlines but fail to make the intended point. Often they contradict it.

Quote:
So what you're implying is that the failure to read past the headline is the reason they are uninformed and thus skeptics? So simple! If only . . . .
Clever riffs like that are usually more effective when they're logical extensions of a valid point.

Quote:
Why do you believe only "your" side is not responsible for exaggerations, deceptions, omissions, and distortions?
I suspect that just about everyone who still shows up in this bunfight agrees that there's distortion and hyperbole in the ADVOCACY done by actors on both sides, often aided and abetted by the media.

But most of us also know that the AGW threads on CF aren't about the science. They're declarations of political position - "IPCC is propaganda." Govt baaad. etc - which is licence to dismiss or deny scientific opinions which don't fit the stance. Science here is just another something picked up from the floors of our respective cages to fling at each other.

What am I really against? A political discussion pretending to be scientific in its refusal to engage with the science. But I'm in the minority, and people want to keep doing it here, so...

(and the abiotic oil digression was interesting)
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:02   #1315
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

I just realised, for someone who wanted just to watch the debate here I posted an awful lot lately .
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:17   #1316
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I just realised, for someone who wanted just to watch the debate here I posted an awful lot lately .


Glad you've stuck around and posted, though. With admirable tact. It's a bit like watching a large man trying to walk through a dark room full of kittens.

And who doesn't like fart jokes?
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:39   #1317
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

I am unsure what qualifies as "trace amounts" but Titan has lakes of methane. At least one lake is larger than any of the Great Lakes. Some are over 500 feet deep. We know this from Cassini scans.

For space probe buffs Cassini will make anther close encounter with Saturn over the July 4 weekend. Some JPLers will not be having burgers in the backyard this year.
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Old 07-06-2016, 06:25   #1318
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Deep Future: The Next 100,000 Years of Life on Earth (book review) | Adirondack Explorer
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Most books on climate begin with the last couple of centuries—the Industrial Revolution and the onset of massive emissions of carbon dioxide—and then move to what remains of the twenty-first century. In Deep Future, Curt Stager looks at millennia, thousands of millennia, back toward the very origins of life and forward for over a hundred thousand years...

It’s a troubling book. First, because it lays out in convincing, dramatic detail the profound ways that human activity is changing and will continue to change, far into the distant future, our planet’s climate. Stager adopts a term becoming widespread among scientists to label the era we are now in and will be in for many millennia, the Anthropocene, to emphasize the unprecedented human impact on the global environment. In addition to altering the climate, human activities have precipitated a devastating loss of biodiversity and the introduction of incalculable quantities of poisons into our air, water, and soils...

Deploying his encyclopedic grasp of the vast reaches of terrestrial history, Stager runs through a depressing litany of what our distant descendants can expect—not necessarily in the next generation or two, but eventually. One inevitable consequence of warming will be acidified oceans. CO2 absorbed by the ocean becomes carbonic acid, which in turn corrodes the shells of living sea creatures, including crabs, oysters, and lobsters; coldwater corals will also suffer. This process has already begun and will continue for centuries. The only question is how awful it will get: bad if we exercise restraint and start weaning ourselves from coal and oil, apocalyptic if we don’t. “Ocean acidification represents one of the most compelling reasons to control our emissions, not only for ourselves but for the sake of countless other species that share this water-dominated planet with us.” Mass extinctions anywhere in the complex marine food chain would have catastrophic consequences...

Another reason that Stager does not despair about the reality of a warming planet involves the cycles of ice ages. We’re currently in an interglacial period, which allows our human culture to thrive. Sooner or later, under normal circumstances, it would end and ice sheets would completely cover much of northern Europe and North America. The last ice age covered the north for about a hundred thousand years and ended only twelve thousand or so years ago. But because of the CO2 already introduced into the atmosphere by our relentless use of fossil fuels, “we have prevented the next ice age,” which otherwise would have arrived about fifty thousand years from now.

So, he asks, shouldn’t we consider the favor we’re doing our distant descendants? Suffering in the short run may mean rescuing the world from an ice age. “At first, this … might seem outlandish, a silly kind of joke.… It also feels like tossing red meat to the habitual contrarians who seek any excuse to avoid controlling fossil fuel consumption. But the facts are plain, and I believe they’re worth considering carefully.” Indeed, one reason for cutting back on our use of fossil fuels, he argues, is to leave some coal for future generations to burn if they want to prevent a far-off ice age...


The map shows Florida’s shoreline as it was during the last ice age,
as it is today, and as it might be in the future.
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Old 07-06-2016, 19:13   #1319
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Not what I said. You move effortlessly from decontextualization to misrepresentation, it seems. MANY of the links posted by some of our ... less rigorous anti-AGW proponents here have shiny, catchy headlines but fail to make the intended point. Often they contradict it.

Sure, that may be fair . . . in some cases. But what is not fair is confining your critique to the skeptics/deniers/contrarians only. What do you think about "MANY of the links posted by some of our ... less rigorous antipro-AGW proponents?" Might be a good test to see if you can get beyond your own bias.

Clever riffs like that are usually more effective when they're logical extensions of a valid point.

Actually, mine was another attempt to logically extend your points to demonstrate where they so often lead.

I suspect that just about everyone who still shows up in this bunfight agrees that there's distortion and hyperbole in the ADVOCACY done by actors on both sides, often aided and abetted by the media.

Agreed! Now that didn't hurt too much, did it?

But most of us also know that the AGW threads on CF aren't about the science. They're declarations of political position - "IPCC is propaganda." Govt baaad. etc - which is licence to dismiss or deny scientific opinions which don't fit the stance. Science here is just another something picked up from the floors of our respective cages to fling at each other.

Yes & no, imho. This is undoubtedly a scientific issue that has become highly politicized as everyone knows. Even more critically, the politics seem to have infiltrated the scientific process itself. As previously discussed, the best answer may be a more objective, science-based institution to reliably report on developments that have been sufficiently peer-reviewed.

Never stated the "IPCC is propaganda," only that what they produce for the media and public consumption is closer to propaganda than the state of the science itself. Also never stated that govt. is "baaad," only that uncritical beliefs in its altruism & benevolence are naive and uninformed. But if you truly wish to get your message more accepted, it matters less how bad or good you, I, or others believe these institutions function, and more about how the wider populace perceives them to function. With the state of so much of the science uncertain, the proposed remedies unrealistic, the general polarization of the politics, and the loss of basic govt. credibility in the eyes of so many, the pervasive skepticism surrounding the CC issue should not be surprising.


What am I really against? A political discussion pretending to be scientific in its refusal to engage with the science. But I'm in the minority, and people want to keep doing it here, so...

(and the abiotic oil digression was interesting)
I actually thought there had been more engagement with the science of late on this thread. But if it's been too much politics and too little science for you, then why don't you simply take it upon yourself to contribute more on the science? It's sort of like complaining about all the posters who don't agree with the proposed remedies coming out of the Paris accord, but then declining to offer alternatives. If it's not installing solar panels or petitioning your govt., then what exactly are you contributing to the cause you hold so dear? Or is it enough to simply complain about the opinions of others?
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Old 07-06-2016, 19:20   #1320
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

I was trying SailOar, I really was, on giving this one the benefit of the doubt. Until I got here, that is:

"But because of the CO2 already introduced into the atmosphere by our relentless use of fossil fuels, “we have prevented the next ice age,” which otherwise would have arrived about fifty thousand years from now.

* * *

Indeed, one reason for cutting back on our use of fossil fuels, he argues, is to leave some coal for future generations to burn if they want to prevent a far-off ice age..."


Whoa -- now that's what I would call a climate prediction with some significant hubris!
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