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Old 31-05-2016, 09:21   #1156
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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The tide cycle is approximately 18.5 years from lowest astronomical tide to lowest astronomical tide.
Jack you seem to be missing my point . I am wondering about lunar effect on a century scale we all learned that tides have changed in range ( high to low) on a geological time scale. A couple billion years ago the tidal range was something more in the range of a hundred feet or more whereas on the Washington coast now days the range is more like 15 feet at extreme.
Just a sidereal thing for my mind to do that's all.
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Old 31-05-2016, 09:24   #1157
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Jack you seem to be missing my point . I am wondering about lunar effect on a century scale we all learned that tides have changed in range ( high to low) on a geological time scale. A couple billion years ago the tidal range was something more in the range of a hundred feet or more whereas on the Washington coast now days the range is more like 15 feet at extreme.
Just a sidereal thing for my mind to do that's all.
OK - have fun.
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Old 31-05-2016, 10:50   #1158
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Back to some analysis of what may fairly be deemed scientific "facts:"

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Some other facts

1) CO2 is a greenhouse gas. That has been known for about 200 years.

Good one. No controversy. Only caveat is that CO2 is not considered a "pollutant" I believe (even though some may refer to it as such in laymen terms). On the contrary, it is essential to sustaining life on earth. Still unclear to me what concentrations cause it to be harmful to plants, animals & humans, apart from some (disputed) info you've provided about apparent lowered plant nutritional content.

2) Using carbon isotope analysis, the 40% increase in CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution can be linked directly to the burning of fossil fuels, a human activity.

I think this one may be uncontroversial as well, although I recall some back & forth about the technology that allows science to distinguish btwn. CO2 derived from different sources. Wood burning? Maybe someone who knows or can recall can weigh in.

3) The last time CO2 levels were 400 ppm was 3-5 million years ago.

The overview from the NAS says 400,000 years. But why quibble over such small numbers?

4) Using ice core CO2 levels fluctuated between 180 and 300 ppm for at least 800,000 years prior to the industrial revolution.

I recall the reliability of ice core measurements, along with tree rings, is occasioned by a degree of scientific controversy. Not sure if this puts it outside the "reasonable degree of scientific reliability" test.

5) Natural cycles worked well in maintaining a "Goldilocks" world in which human beings evolved and their food crops evolved and were domesticated.

You've often repeated this quip, but I'm still not sure what it means. As flushed out in the other thread, the IPCC apparently estimates (as of the 1990's) the gross percentage of anthropogenic CO2 at 3% of the total, the rest derived from "natural" sources. The argument that this 3% nevertheless exceeds the capacity of the sinks to absorb sounds viable, but given all the unknowns about such negative feedback processes it hardly seems factual or a widely accepted theory. Maybe this one should go in a different category?

Your last sentence is a policy concern that should use science as a basis for its direction.
Absolutely. But policy concerns should be entirely dependent on a reasonable degree of scientific certainty. Agreed?

What I find most interesting is what you have not included on your list as scientific "facts," for example:

a) the relationship btwn. anthropogenic CO2 and warming;

b) the relationship btwn. any human-caused warming and sea level rise, retreating glaciers, melting polar ice, coral bleaching, increased storm activity.

In other words, your list relies on people assuming that higher CO2 levels created by fossil fuel emissions are simply "bad." If higher CO2 is the only "fact," then the rest is some level of theory which, in turn, must be judged at whatever level of certainty science bestows upon it.
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Old 31-05-2016, 10:52   #1159
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Munich Re keeps tabs on such data. Notice that geological events have remained somewhat static. Weather and climatological related events are on the increase.

I think you need another sentence here that makes the connection btwn. MMGW and the increase in such events. There are many natural causes that can explain as well.
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Old 31-05-2016, 10:55   #1160
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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6) Despite never ending research focusing mostly on the potentially detrimental effects of greenhouse gas related climate warming, no actual detrimental effects unequivocally reasonably attributable solely mostly to global warming have yet occurred despite almost twenty years having passed since the cries of alarm began.
I believe this may also qualify as scientific "fact," although it can arguably be taken further as the edits above suggest.
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Old 31-05-2016, 10:57   #1161
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Are the seas actually dropping or is the land RISING?

Maybe the entire continent will CAPSIZE due to too many people. LOL


Wow, that's pretty sad. Fair to say that the US govt. isn't exactly attracting the "best and the brightest" anymore.
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Old 31-05-2016, 11:02   #1162
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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And to add the extra whipped cream...





Has sea level not been progressively rising at any time within the current interglacial?
Makes a lot of sense if the theory is correct that we are experiencing a long-term natural warming trend since the end of the LIA. The controversy centers around how much MMGW is contributing to the melting ice. Seems like a critical question that needs to have some higher degree of certainty before we invest so much trying to keep higher temps in check.
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Old 31-05-2016, 11:07   #1163
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I think you need another sentence here that makes the connection btwn. MMGW and the increase in such events. There are many natural causes that can explain as well.
I answered your assertion. You were wrong. Now you want to change the playing field. Typical.
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Old 31-05-2016, 11:10   #1164
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Makes a lot of sense if the theory is correct that we are experiencing a long-term natural warming trend since the end of the LIA. The controversy centers around how much MMGW is contributing to the melting ice. Seems like a critical question that needs to have some higher degree of certainty before we invest so much trying to keep higher temps in check.
Natural cycles: solar, Milankovitch etc.. would have us in a cooling trend. We are not cooling. Therefore, something unnatural is causing the warming. Not a hard concept.
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Old 31-05-2016, 11:54   #1165
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Natural cycles: solar, Milankovitch etc.. would have us in a cooling trend. We are not cooling. Therefore, something unnatural is causing the warming. Not a hard concept.
No, not a hard concept if the theory that natural forces support a cooling trend was a scientific fact or widely-accepted theory. But it's not. When you repeatedly represent it as such, and then posters like me discover that your purported "fact" is widely disputed within the scientific community, then your assertions become less reliable. We just saw this pattern repeated in your colloquy with Sailorchic over the disputed science over the impact of solar variability on climate. Your evidence is usually well-supported, but your constantly overstating its level of acceptance is more often than not misleading. I'm sure it's frustrating for you but, under the circumstances, the continued skepticism is also quite understandable.
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Old 31-05-2016, 12:00   #1166
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I answered your assertion. You were wrong. Now you want to change the playing field. Typical.
Well again, the piece of evidence you offered showed an increase in storms & other meteorological events, but there are other studies that show the opposite. Not sure that makes either of us "wrong," but possibly not fully informed.

Same playing field, you just haven't reasonably made the connection btwn. all of the predicted increase in storm activity & other catastrophic weather events that Hansen and other alarmists have long attributed to human causes.
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Old 31-05-2016, 12:36   #1167
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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No, not a hard concept if the theory that natural forces support a cooling trend was a scientific fact or widely-accepted theory. But it's not. When you repeatedly represent it as such, and then posters like me discover that your purported "fact" is widely disputed within the scientific community, then your assertions become less reliable. We just saw this pattern repeated in your colloquy with Sailorchic over the disputed science over the impact of solar variability on climate. Your evidence is usually well-supported, but your constantly overstating its level of acceptance is more often than not misleading. I'm sure it's frustrating for you but, under the circumstances, the continued skepticism is also quite understandable.
More vague unsupported assertions. Can be have some substance instead of this mush?

Until then I get something meaningful from you I will spend my time and effort elsewhere.
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Old 31-05-2016, 13:59   #1168
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

A unique representation of global warming from Ed HAwkins.



The animated spiral presents global temperature change in a visually appealing and straightforward way. The pace of change is immediately obvious, especially over the past few decades. The relationship between current global temperatures and the internationally discussed target limits are also clear without much complex interpretation needed.

Spiralling global temperatures | Climate Lab Book
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Old 31-05-2016, 15:07   #1169
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

More settled science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Mars is APPROXIMATELY the same mass as the Moon,
Mars is nearly 9 times the mass of the moon.

Moon radius 1.737 million metres
Mars radius 2.29 million metres

Moon density 3.34 g/cm3
Mars Density 3.93 g/cm3

Ratio of Mars to Moon radius = 1.95
Ratio of Mars to Moon volume (4/3 Pi r^3) = 7.42
Ratio of Mass 7.42 * 3.93/3.34 = 8.73

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tidal gravitational forces vary as the THIRD power of the separation
Wrong again. It varies as the SQUARE of distance.
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Old 31-05-2016, 15:24   #1170
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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More settled science?



Mars is nearly 9 times the mass of the moon.

Moon radius 1.737 million metres
Mars radius 2.29 million metres

Moon density 3.34 g/cm3
Mars Density 3.93 g/cm3

Ratio of Mars to Moon radius = 1.95
Ratio of Mars to Moon volume (4/3 Pi r^3) = 7.42
Ratio of Mass 7.42 * 3.93/3.34 = 8.73



Wrong again. It varies as the SQUARE of distance.
Thanks for the corrections.

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