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Old 29-08-2016, 16:15   #3091
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

The problem as I see it is:

1. data collection inaccuracies from changed equipment over years
2. data collection inaccuracies from not collecting and using all data collected
3. data collection inaccuracies due to data collector bias
4. data collection inaccuracies due to poor "interpretation" of data
5. data collection inaccuracies due to geographic changes such as increase in heat collection cement and pavement over the years in proximity to the reading devices
6. data collection inaccuracies because of the way the data is organized

I could go on but there is evidence enough of the serious problems of data recording that makes a 1 degree change calculation dubious to say the least.

Give me reading from both north and south poles using the same measuring device in the exact same location and read at the exact same time for the past 100 years and we may start to have some data points worth analyzing. If any one of the stipulated criteria for measuring is not the same over this period of time then the data is basically useless.
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Old 29-08-2016, 16:34   #3092
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
The problem as I see it is:

1. data collection inaccuracies from changed equipment over years
2. data collection inaccuracies from not collecting and using all data collected
3. data collection inaccuracies due to data collector bias
4. data collection inaccuracies due to poor "interpretation" of data
5. data collection inaccuracies due to geographic changes such as increase in heat collection cement and pavement over the years in proximity to the reading devices
6. data collection inaccuracies because of the way the data is organized

I could go on but there is evidence enough of the serious problems of data recording that makes a 1 degree change calculation dubious to say the least.
Interesting. Of course, this implies that you have achieved an insight into measurement and statistical analysis that thousands of practising scientists have not.

Quote:
Give me reading from both north and south poles using the same measuring device in the exact same location and read at the exact same time for the past 100 years and we may start to have some data points worth analyzing. If any one of the stipulated criteria for measuring is not the same over this period of time then the data is basically useless.
... and this of course seems to imply that you don't have a clue about all this stuff.
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Old 29-08-2016, 18:06   #3093
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Interesting. Of course, this implies that you have achieved an insight into measurement and statistical analysis that thousands of practising scientists have not.



... and this of course seems to imply that you don't have a clue about all this stuff.
How silly of me. Let me hand in my membership of M...a immediately. I must be to ignorant and obviously my IQ is much lower than I was lead to believe. Of course I should accept without question the high priests of science and their collectors of data. To question the high priests is to commit apostasy.
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Old 29-08-2016, 18:11   #3094
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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How silly of me. Let me hand in my membership of M...a immediately. I must be to ignorant and obviously my IQ is much lower than I was lead to believe. Of course I should accept without question the high priests of science and their collectors of data. To question the high priests is to commit apostasy.
No door has been shut. Simply help us to understand better what you have asserted.
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Old 29-08-2016, 20:05   #3095
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Back after six weeks of sailing to, around in, and back from Desolation Sound, BC Canada after a lot of sailing, hiking to and swimming in beautiful lakes.

The jackdale thread is still going on?

All I can say is wow......
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Old 29-08-2016, 20:14   #3096
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Back after six weeks of sailing to, around in, and back from Desolation Sound, BC Canada after a lot of sailing, hiking to and swimming in beautiful lakes.

The jackdale thread is still going on?

All I can say is wow......
Last Monday I got home after delivering a Vic Maui boat back home. Apparently the denizens of this thread, which I did not start, can survive without me.
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Old 29-08-2016, 21:03   #3097
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
The problem as I see it is:

1. data collection inaccuracies from changed equipment over years
2. data collection inaccuracies from not collecting and using all data collected
3. data collection inaccuracies due to data collector bias
4. data collection inaccuracies due to poor "interpretation" of data
5. data collection inaccuracies due to geographic changes such as increase in heat collection cement and pavement over the years in proximity to the reading devices
6. data collection inaccuracies because of the way the data is organized
The BEST studies dealt with most of these.

Berkeley Earth

http://berkeleyearth.org/papers/
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Old 29-08-2016, 23:19   #3098
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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You do know you've quoted from The Onion, right?
You mean the red onion, wheat, avocado and smoked sausage sandwich I'm about to eat, right?
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Old 30-08-2016, 00:48   #3099
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years | Nature Geoscience
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Abstract

Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of ~10 Pg C yr−1 in 2014. Geologic analogues from past transient climate changes could provide invaluable constraints on the response of the climate system to such perturbations, but only if the associated carbon release rates can be reliably reconstructed. The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is known at present to have the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years, but robust estimates of the initial rate and onset duration are hindered by uncertainties in age models. Here we introduce a new method to extract rates of change from a sedimentary record based on the relative timing of climate and carbon cycle changes, without the need for an age model. We apply this method to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from the New Jersey shelf using time-series analysis and carbon cycle–climate modelling. We calculate that the initial carbon release during the onset of the PETM occurred over at least 4,000 years. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than 1.1 Pg C yr−1. We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a ‘no-analogue’ state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Earth Hasn’t Heated Up This Fast Since the Dinosaurs’ End | National Geographic
Quote:
People are sending carbon into the atmosphere ten times faster than during the hottest period in the past 66 million years...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

PETM: Global Warming, Naturally | Wunderground

Rate of temperature change today (red) and in the PETM (blue). Temperature rose steadily in the PETM due to the slow release of greenhouse gas (around 2 billion tons per year). Today, fossil fuel burning is leading to 30 billion tons of carbon released into the atmosphere every year, driving temperature up at an incredible rate.
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Old 30-08-2016, 01:04   #3100
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine | The Guardian of All Lies

In a study sponsored by NOAA and published in that junk journal Geophysical Research Letters, unethical, and otherwise evil scientists set up a network of 114 pristinely-located temperature stations across the USA that they could use as a reference against conventional temperature stations. They compared the readings from the pristine sites against the adjusted readings of the conventional sites and found the adjustments don’t have any significant effect on the average temperature or warming trend since 2004.

Comparison of monthly average adjusted USHCN (historical network of adjusted data) and USCRN (reference network) temperatures between January 2004 and October 2015. Illustration: Hausfather et al. (2016), Geophysical Research Letters
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Old 30-08-2016, 03:34   #3101
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Let me hand in my membership of M...a immediately...
How would you do this???

Mensa is like cockroach hotel: you check in once but you never check out

PS: I'm still looking forward to great evening (somewhere warm) with lots of wine in the cockpit of one of our 450s.
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Old 30-08-2016, 07:19   #3102
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout View Post
How silly of me. Let me hand in my membership of M...a immediately. I must be to ignorant and obviously my IQ is much lower than I was lead to believe. Of course I should accept without question the high priests of science and their collectors of data. To question the high priests is to commit apostasy.
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How would you do this???

Mensa is like cockroach hotel: you check in once but you never check out

PS: I'm still looking forward to great evening (somewhere warm) with lots of wine in the cockpit of one of our 450s.
Mensa is for people who think they are something, they are not. Most people who claim to be a member are like the losers I would meet in SEA claiming they are al retired Navy Seals.
Of course if you have saved people from burning buildings, tread water while saving half a dozen poor souls in a rip tide, maybe they are geniuses.
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Old 30-08-2016, 07:28   #3103
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Mensa is for people who think they are something, they are not. Most people who claim to be a member are like the losers I would meet in SEA claiming they are al retired Navy Seals.
Of course if you have saved people from burning buildings, tread water while saving half a dozen poor souls in a rip tide, maybe they are geniuses.
I don't know about Mensa . However I do know about retired SEALS they will only tell you who they are by their actions not by their mouths.
Therefore by your comparison I would assumes that people openly claiming Mensa are also frauds.
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Old 30-08-2016, 08:18   #3104
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I don't know about Mensa . However I do know about retired SEALS they will only tell you who they are by their actions not by their mouths.
Therefore by your comparison I would assumes that people openly claiming Mensa are also frauds.
Exactly my point. In college, my Psyc Prof used the phrase "Egomaniacs with inferiority complexes".
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Old 30-08-2016, 14:35   #3105
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Exactly my point. In college, my Psyc Prof used the phrase "Egomaniacs with inferiority complexes".
Albert Einstein was not member of Mensa. He never sat an IQ test. Stephen Hawking is not a member of Mensa, he officially never did one either.

Like a real SEAL, a real genius is recognised by his work and not by his club membership cards.
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