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Old 26-08-2016, 15:48   #3016
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Meanwhile

The Polar Ocean Challenge has transited the Northern Sea Route and is headed for Barrow, Alaska.

Well what a great day. We finally passed that elusive line on the charts 180 Longitude Our waypoint is now straight for Point Barrow 400 NM as I type. - The Polar Ocean Challenge

The NWP looks pretty passable right now, way below the median. Remember this is based on a 15% ice coverage.
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Old 26-08-2016, 21:02   #3017
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
No, you can say Greenland lost 0.74% of its present ice sheet in the last century, but you have no basis for saying the rate of ice loss is 0.74% per century, and it's counterintuitive, to boot.

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What's the correct answer then teacher?

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Old 27-08-2016, 03:37   #3018
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Climate catastrophe? A half a degree warming could make the difference | Science

A study reinforces the COP21 goal of 1.5C being much preferred to a 2.0C goal.
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Old 27-08-2016, 03:43   #3019
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Global Warming Will Cost Millennials $8.8 Trillion, New Report Says | Weather.com

The Price of Being Young calculates that the Millennial generation will loose $8.8 trillion in lifetime income, or an income reduction of 23%, compared to if there were no global warming.
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Old 27-08-2016, 03:50   #3020
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
No, you can say Greenland lost 0.74% of its present ice sheet in the last century, but you have no basis for saying the rate of ice loss is 0.74% per century, and it's counterintuitive, to boot.

...F. See me after class.
What's the correct answer then teacher?
************************************************** **

I think he just told you....
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Old 27-08-2016, 05:37   #3021
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

See, because I didn't actually state the loss was 0.74% last century, but simply projected the 270 Gt most recent annual loss guesstimate forward. I just assumed our esteemed forumite was misrepresenting - err sorry, misinterpreting - my numbers.
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Old 27-08-2016, 06:55   #3022
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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See, because I didn't actually state the loss was 0.74% last century, but simply projected the 270 Gt most recent annual loss guesstimate forward. I just assumed our esteemed forumite was misrepresenting - err sorry, misinterpreting - my numbers.
You know what? I did screw up.

You said
Quote:
At this rate Greenland is losing 0.74% [o]f its present ice sheet volume per century
... I failed to process the word "present", which makes your estimate exactly as you say above. So, sorry for that.

Notwithstanding, projecting the same century loss forward is not exactly good modelling. Why not the loss in last 50 years? the last 10? That would be more realistic.

Even if there's no temperature increase after today, various effects such as loss of ice mass, meltwater flow, uncovering of landmass, warming and change of ocean currents will all lead to accelerated melt rates.

And most of us know the temperature is still increasing.
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Old 27-08-2016, 07:04   #3023
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
You know what? I did screw up.

You said
... I failed to process the word "present", which makes your estimate exactly as you say above. So, sorry for that.

Notwithstanding, projecting the same century loss forward is not exactly good modelling. Why not the loss in last 50 years? the last 10? That would be more realistic.

Even if there's no temperature increase after today, various effects such as loss of ice mass, meltwater flow, uncovering of landmass, warming and change of ocean currents will all lead to accelerated melt rates.

And most of us know the temperature is still increasing.
If the ice sheet is at -30 C then warming it to -28 or even -20 won't make it melt. Most of the melting is limited to a very small area compared to the island as a whole. Just more doomin' and gloomin'.

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Old 27-08-2016, 07:41   #3024
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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If the ice sheet is at -30 C then warming it to -28 or even -20 won't make it melt.
Takes less energy to melt ice at -20 C than ice at -30 C.

Quote:
Most of the melting is limited to a very small area compared to the island as a whole.
Meltwater flows... conducting heat, undercutting, etc etc. There's been lots written about it. You'd dispel more doom'n'gloom with better modeling. In fact, the skeptic argument in general would prevail if they simply provided a better model than the ones supporting the pro-AGW view.
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Old 27-08-2016, 08:36   #3025
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Greenland ice sheet | Wikipedia
Quote:
Many scientists who study the ice melt in Greenland consider that a two or three degrees C temperature rise would result in a complete melting of Greenlands ice.[5]...
Quote:
If the entire 2,850,000 km3 (684,000 cu mi) of ice were to melt, global sea levels would rise 7.2 m (24 ft).[2] Recently, fears have grown that continued climate change will make the Greenland Ice Sheet cross a threshold where long-term melting of the ice sheet is inevitable. Climate models project that local warming in Greenland will be 3 C (5 F) to 9 C (16 F) during this century. Ice sheet models project that such a warming would initiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the ice sheet (over centuries), resulting in a global sea level rise of about 7 metres (23 ft).[6] Such a rise would inundate almost every major coastal city in the world. How fast the melt would eventually occur is a matter of discussion. According to the IPCC 2001 report,[2] such warming would, if kept from rising further after the 21st Century, result in 1 to 5 meter sea level rise over the next millennium due to Greenland ice sheet melting. Some scientists have cautioned that these rates of melting are overly optimistic as they assume a linear, rather than erratic, progression. James E. Hansen has argued that multiple positive feedbacks could lead to nonlinear ice sheet disintegration much faster than claimed by the IPCC. According to a 2007 paper, "we find no evidence of millennial lags between forcing and ice sheet response in paleoclimate data. An ice sheet response time of centuries seems probable, and we cannot rule out large changes on decadal time-scales once wide-scale surface melt is underway."[11]...
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Old 27-08-2016, 08:41   #3026
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

I've been gone a day...did I miss anything?
Did the sea levels rise while I was away or the ice caps melt away killing the baby polar bears?
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Old 27-08-2016, 09:02   #3027
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
OK let's see here the quoted says local
Quote
Climate models project that local warming in Greenland will be 3 C (5 F) to 9 C (16 F) during this century. End quote.
Causing meltion of the ice sheet over centuries.
Quote
Ice sheet models project that such a warming would initiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the ice sheet (over centuries),
End quote
So to summarize. The temp rise is projected to be a local event and the ice to melt over centuries. I'm sure the human race will be able to adapt to the estimated rise in sea levels in that time
Look what adaptive advances we have made in the last single century.
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Old 27-08-2016, 14:32   #3028
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I'm sure the human race will be able to adapt to the estimated rise in sea levels in that time.
Me too.

We can also engage in a little bit better resource management now, so that maybe the melt will be a bit slower, and oil will last a bit longer.

Why can't we do both?
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Old 27-08-2016, 14:38   #3029
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Me too.

We can also engage in a little bit better resource management now, so that maybe the melt will be a bit slower, and oil will last a bit longer.

Why can't we do both?
Now that's a little disingenuous because if the MMGWC had their way there would be no burning of carbon fuels. Not for cars, power plants or pagan festivals.
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Old 27-08-2016, 14:42   #3030
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Takes less energy to melt ice at -20 C than ice at -30 C.



Meltwater flows... conducting heat, undercutting, etc etc. There's been lots written about it. You'd dispel more doom'n'gloom with better modeling. In fact, the skeptic argument in general would prevail if they simply provided a better model than the ones supporting the pro-AGW view.
No model required. Hollywood physics don't apply in the real world.

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