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Old 04-12-2015, 07:50   #211
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by sailorchic34 View Post
I think most scientists are fair and honest. Mind you Dr. Mann took a few liberties with his hockey stick, and NOAA (Tom Karl and others) may have skipped a wee bit of peer review with their Feb 2015 paper, based on noaa's adjustment of sea surface bouy data, that tried to explain away the pause.

The main issue of course, is that even the most well thought of AGW models, don't actually match observed data trends very well. That in my eye means the model has issues.
The Mann stuff centers around whether the best data around 1500 were properly accounted for in his original projections. Projections that are now at least 8 years old btw. Nonetheless, the blade end of the hockey stick remains pretty accurate and it's definite upward trend is still supported by more recent data.

Small thought experiment - you know that when an ice cube is sitting in a glass of water, at room temperature, kinetic energy is transferred to the water but the water temperature will stay near the freezing point until the ice-cube as totally melted. So, to me it's entirely plausible that the very slow rise in average ocean temp, coupled with the significant reduction in extent of Arctic summer ice is an indication that the oceans have been absorbing energy, more than enough to account for the pause in the trend of air temp increase. Time will tell.

It's far from perfect data so far, as you observe, (and it's still early days in the amount of data and the timescale) and of course models based on that are going to be guestimates, subject to ongoing refinement. Still, there's enough raw material for just about anyone to cherry-pick something that agrees with one's particular viewpoint.

So the question for me is: do I trust the opinion of the majority of the subject matter experts who continue to assert that AGW must be dealt with, or do I put more credence in the few who contest the findings? To tilt in favour of the deniers, it seems one has to accept a lot of the following:
  • the scientific process isn't working
  • the 95% majority isn't a thing, or that most climate scientists* are weak-willed, incompetent self-deluders who just wanna be with the cool guys
  • that scientists are more likely to be biased and to spin than the fossil-fuel industry and the experts they choose to fund
  • that just about all climate-scientists and their supporters are willfully bending science to serve some dark ulterior motive
  • government has some ulterior motive for accepting the finding of AGW
...there's simply too much tinfoil hat in all that.


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Oh agree that we need to ween off fossil fuels and I am all for being green. (That hippie chick thingy). I'm just not 100% sold that AGW is the major driver of climate change. Yes AGW is partly to blame. But is that 80% or 30% or 10%. A few more years should settle it one way or another.
Speaking personally, even if it was known that the AGW component was only 30%, it's stilll the 30% we can control. As a greenie, you already know there are 1,000 other reasons for reducing the consumption of fossil fuels. So, from a purely pragmatic viewpoint, why would you publicly oppose the finding of AGW when you essentially share the same goals? In the public's eye it seems that all the ecology/sustainability eggs are in the climate-change basket, and for as long as the debate over AGW can be sustained, significant progress towards those goals has successfully been stifled.

* A couple of genuine NOAA PhDs (biologists I believe) have come out the last couple of years to our annual Sandpiper Rendezvous. No I haven't asked them about AGW. I do find it hard to square this couple with the denier implications that they are careerist, grant-hungry science-distorters, and not people who have simply dedicated their life to a particular field of study, for not alot of money.
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Old 04-12-2015, 09:13   #212
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Myself I spent a fair amount of time researching the data both for and against Anthropogenic Global Warming. Being a engineer or scientist requires a health bit of skepticsisum on any new trend, theory or innovation.

Myself as a poor engineer and not a climate scientist, find that the models used for AGW prediction, have too many assumptions and not enough actual documented data. There is tons of data true. But alas for many parts of the world there are too many areas where the data is at best an approximation and at worst has no basis in reality. Then the use of proxy data (which both sides use), is at best an approximate guesstimate. Proxy data is always suspect.

BTW there really isn't anyone who is a denier that the earth has not gotten warmer over the last 150 years or so. Everyone knows that it has. Even Andrew Watts and company. The only questions is how much of the warming is Anthropogenic. While the warmists say pretty much all of it is. Myself, I feel the answer is not at all so clear cut.

While I remain unconvinceed that AGW is the major driver in climate change, I have since the 70's reduced my carbon foot print. First with bicycle commuting and solar hot water in the 70's through 90's. To today were almost all my power is from solar and I don't even own a car. What has the average warmest done to reduce their carbon footprint.

No question that the world has serious issues with over population, over fishing and way too much pollution. I do my little bit, but see few others making any concerted effort. I suspect that the major driver of all that will suffer a corrective action sometime in the next 30 to 200 years. It will not be pretty.

Meanwhile the band plays on.....
Finally, some me common sense on this thread! Well said, sailor... Phil
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Old 08-12-2015, 05:43   #213
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Greetings and welcome aboard the CF, Herb.
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Old 08-12-2015, 06:21   #214
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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One of the issues with Artic cruising is where you will get provisions when you go. It will be a while before the infrastructure gets built up and one question would be why? Jimmy Cornell just went up there and found out it is pretty far and between stores and fuel depots.

As far as the whole global warming thing, it is definitely possible that it could go either way. It is definitely possible that man-made emissions could swing it one way. Or not if Mother Nature decides to do something of a bigger nature where the stuff humans put up is only a rounding error.

One thing I don't think is true is that the global scientific community is cooking the books. There are many people who would like to but I don't think they are the ones who have published the majority of the finding about the trends. I find all the conspiracy theories pretty humorous. I think those are cooking their own books. And I think it is a conspiracy that we must all conspire to defeat.
Re: cooking the books, in '12-13?...a group of prominent British scientists, 7 of them, were exposed in the major media for doing just this...they confessed their numbers were falsely slanted to present global warming. It was a huge story in the media for that 1 week... anyone remember this?...
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Old 08-12-2015, 06:28   #215
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Still working on my tan during the hot summer months, and freezing my a$$ during the winter here in New England.

The same as thirty years ago, except.... now summers are spent in the Med.
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Old 08-12-2015, 07:21   #216
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Re: cooking the books, in '12-13?...a group of prominent British scientists, 7 of them, were exposed in the major media for doing just this...they confessed their numbers were falsely slanted to present global warming. It was a huge story in the media for that 1 week... anyone remember this?...
Cimategate?
In late November 2009, more than 1,000 e-mails between scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the U.K.’s University of East Anglia were stolen and made public by an as-yet-unnamed hacker. Climate skeptics claimed that they show scientific misconduct that amounts to the complete fabrication of man-made global warming.
Though some of the CRU emails can sound damning, when quoted out of context, several inquiries have cleared the scientists. The Independent Climate Change Email Review put the emails into context, by investigating the main allegations. It found the scientists' rigour and honesty are not in doubt, and their behaviour did not prejudice the IPCC's conclusions, though they did fail to display the proper degree of openness.
The CRU emails do not negate the mountain of evidence for AGW.
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Old 08-12-2015, 09:08   #217
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Cimategate?
In late November 2009, more than 1,000 e-mails between scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the U.K.ís University of East Anglia were stolen and made public by an as-yet-unnamed hacker. Climate skeptics claimed that they show scientific misconduct that amounts to the complete fabrication of man-made global warming.
Though some of the CRU emails can sound damning, when quoted out of context, several inquiries have cleared the scientists. The Independent Climate Change Email Review put the emails into context, by investigating the main allegations. It found the scientists' rigour and honesty are not in doubt, and their behaviour did not prejudice the IPCC's conclusions, though they did fail to display the proper degree of openness.
The CRU emails do not negate the mountain of evidence for AGW.
We,here in blighty, know that there is no such thing as an independent review board.They are appointed.And,especially if they have a Knighthood or a peerage, they are a part of the establishment
We have lots of "independant " boards here,all appointed by officialdom.
Try a more believable source.
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Old 08-12-2015, 10:19   #218
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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We,here in blighty, know that there is no such thing as an independent review board.They are appointed.And,especially if they have a Knighthood or a peerage, they are a part of the establishment
We have lots of "independant " boards here,all appointed by officialdom.
Try a more believable source.
Six official investigations have cleared scientists of accusations of wrongdoing.

- A three-part Penn State University report cleared scientist Michael Mann of wrongdoing.

- Two reviews commissioned by the University of East Anglia"supported the honesty and integrity of scientists in the Climatic Research Unit."

- A UK Parliament report concluded that the emails have no bearing on our understanding of climate science and that claims against UEA scientists are misleading.

- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Inspector General's office concluded there was no evidence of wrongdoing on behalf of their employees.

- The National Science Foundation's Inspector General's office concluded, "Lacking any direct evidence of research misconduct...we are closing this investigation with no further action."
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Old 08-12-2015, 10:23   #219
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by bustermaw View Post
Try a more believable source.
Ok...

The following bodies have reviewed the allegations:

Inquiries and reports
From Wikipedia
The mainstream media picked up the story as negotiations over climate change mitigation began in Copenhagen on 7 December.[12] Because of the timing, scientists, policy makers and public relations experts said that the release of emails was a smear campaign intended to undermine the climate conference.[13] In response to the controversy, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) released statements supporting the scientific consensus that the Earth's mean surface temperature had been rising for decades, with the AAAS concluding "based on multiple lines of scientific evidence that global climate change caused by human activities is now underway...it is a growing threat to society."[14]
Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct.[15] However, the reports called on the scientists to avoid any such allegations in the future by taking steps to regain public confidence in their work, for example by opening up access to their supporting data, processing methods and software, and by promptly honouring freedom of information requests.[16] The scientific consensus that global warming is occurring as a result of human activity remained unchanged throughout the investigations.[17]
... speaking personally, it would be refreshing if deniers could come up with some more recent, less-discredited counterpoints. Just sayin'.
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Old 08-12-2015, 10:28   #220
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Six official investigations have cleared scientists of accusations of wrongdoing.

- A three-part Penn State University report cleared scientist Michael Mann of wrongdoing.

- Two reviews commissioned by the University of East Anglia"supported the honesty and integrity of scientists in the Climatic Research Unit."

- A UK Parliament report concluded that the emails have no bearing on our understanding of climate science and that claims against UEA scientists are misleading.

- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Inspector General's office concluded there was no evidence of wrongdoing on behalf of their employees.

- The National Science Foundation's Inspector General's office concluded, "Lacking any direct evidence of research misconduct...we are closing this investigation with no further action."
Who pays these " independent " boards.
In the history of independent boards, not one of them has ever found anything against anyone unless government wishes it so.
Inspector General ! you are,as they say," having a laugh"
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Old 08-12-2015, 11:34   #221
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Ok...

The following bodies have reviewed the allegations:

Inquiries and reports
From Wikipedia
The mainstream media picked up the story as negotiations over climate change mitigation began in Copenhagen on 7 December.[12] Because of the timing, scientists, policy makers and public relations experts said that the release of emails was a smear campaign intended to undermine the climate conference.[13] In response to the controversy, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) released statements supporting the scientific consensus that the Earth's mean surface temperature had been rising for decades, with the AAAS concluding "based on multiple lines of scientific evidence that global climate change caused by human activities is now underway...it is a growing threat to society."[14]
Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct.[15] However, the reports called on the scientists to avoid any such allegations in the future by taking steps to regain public confidence in their work, for example by opening up access to their supporting data, processing methods and software, and by promptly honouring freedom of information requests.[16] The scientific consensus that global warming is occurring as a result of human activity remained unchanged throughout the investigations.[17]
... speaking personally, it would be refreshing if deniers could come up with some more recent, less-discredited counterpoints. Just sayin'.
Yes ! lots of meaning less bum fodder.
Blinding one with science , I believe is the term.
I'm still reeling from holes in the ozone layer ,which, were going to be the death of us all in double quick time, (what happened to those ?)
Or ,Bird flu ,Swine fever or any number of other end of world scenario's posited by our elite scientists.
We,the "Great Unwashed" are tired of the constant bombardment from unachieved time servers looking to serve on a " Board of enquiry " with a view to a gong or two as reward,How much more interesting their mediocre careers would seem with a few letters after their names.
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Old 08-12-2015, 11:37   #222
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Blinding one with science , I believe is the term.
If you say so.

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Old 08-12-2015, 11:45   #223
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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If you say so.

I do.
Is that the best you can achieve as a riposte ?
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Old 08-12-2015, 12:37   #224
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I do.
Is that the best you can achieve as a riposte ?
Maybe. I guess it depends on whether you actually have a considered viewpoint or are just taking the piss.
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Old 08-12-2015, 14:33   #225
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Cimategate?
In late November 2009, more than 1,000 e-mails between scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the U.K.ís University of East Anglia were stolen and made public by an as-yet-unnamed hacker. Climate skeptics claimed that they show scientific misconduct that amounts to the complete fabrication of man-made global warming.
Though some of the CRU emails can sound damning, when quoted out of context, several inquiries have cleared the scientists. The Independent Climate Change Email Review put the emails into context, by investigating the main allegations. It found the scientists' rigour and honesty are not in doubt, and their behaviour did not prejudice the IPCC's conclusions, though they did fail to display the proper degree of openness.
The CRU emails do not negate the mountain of evidence for AGW.

Would that be a quote from the Skeptical Science website by any chance?
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