Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 01-07-2016, 14:33   #1951
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Exile gets all shirty when I mention the background colour of most AGW denial
CRINGE. I'm now past being embarrassed for you and join fryewe in simple pity. I can't say I've ever interacted with anyone who so overtly judges others based on "color," but we can all see where stereotyping and ignorant assumptions can lead. I take it you mean that, along with the usual bogeymen of party affiliation, religious belief, conservatism, etc., now race & ethnicity drives peoples' positions on a scientific issue??? The only hope is that you are in fact a teenager and not only haven't yet learned how to be an adult, but don't yet know how to even act like one. Given how obnoxious yet another one of your offensive approaches to this complicated scientific issue actually is, I just thought I'd better check. Nobody on either side of this debate resorts to this level of ignorance and incivility, and I can't imagine any of them ever would.

Myself and others have certainly been critical at times towards the approach that Jack and a few others employ to get their message across, but there's no denying their countless positive contributions that have helped many of us learn the many sides of this issue. If after all these posts you still can't figure out how to make a positive contribution or control your emotions, then why not put me and others you don't like on "ignore," or just move to another thread that makes you feel better about yourself? Otherwise I'm starting to think that comments like this are a deliberate attempt to try and close the thread down. You've already acknowledged several times that this is in fact what you desire.
__________________

__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 14:58   #1952
Registered User

Join Date: May 2011
Location: Toronto
Boat: Sandpiper 565
Posts: 2,798
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
CRINGE. I'm now past being embarrassed for you and join fryewe in simple pity. I can't say I've ever interacted with anyone who so overtly judges others based on "color," but we can all see where stereotyping and ignorant assumptions can lead. I take it you mean that, along with the usual bogeymen of party affiliation, religious belief, conservatism, etc., now race & ethnicity drives peoples' positions on a scientific issue??? The only hope is that you are in fact a teenager and not only haven't yet learned how to be an adult, but don't yet know how to even act like one. Given how obnoxious yet another one of your offensive approaches to this complicated scientific issue actually is, I just thought I'd better check. Nobody on either side of this debate resorts to this level of ignorance and incivility, and I can't imagine any of them ever would.

Myself and others have certainly been critical at times towards the approach that Jack and a few others employ to get their message across, but there's no denying their countless positive contributions that have helped many of us learn the many sides of this issue. If after all these posts you still can't figure out how to make a positive contribution or control your emotions, then why not put me and others you don't like on "ignore," or just move to another thread that makes you feel better about yourself? Otherwise I'm starting to think that comments like this are a deliberate attempt to try and close the thread down. You've already acknowledged several times that this is in fact what you desire.
Wow. such reading comprehension.

recap:

Quote:
Quote:
Heh. Sometimes the color can't help but bleed through.
Exile gets all shirty when I mention the background colour of most AGW denial, so...
freyewe was implying colour as in political stripe. I'm guessing pink. As in lefty.

I responded in kind, and with regards to denial, not deniers.

How you get race/ethnicity out of that...

I'm a little embarrassed for YOU.... Of course you seldom miss an opportunity to push our buttons, do you?

Great work. Keep it up.
__________________

__________________
Lake-Effect is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 14:59   #1953
Registered User
 
Reefmagnet's Avatar

Join Date: May 2008
Location: puɐןsuǝǝnb 'ʎɐʞɔɐɯ
Boat: Nantucket Island 33
Posts: 2,710
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
You first blogger does have the graph. My craap detector went off bog time. More later.

There is no graph in your second reference.
Of course it would. The blogger is a skeptic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
So here is what set off my craap detector:



1) He makes no reference to which of the data sets at CDIAC he uses.
Aside from telling you exactly where it came from of course. You know,

"come from Law Dome (Etheridge et al., 1998), particularly the DE08 core"

Quote:
2) THE BIG ONE "The emissions (GtC) were divided by 2.13 to obtain ppmv CO2." Huh? How does Gigatonnes of carbon / 2.13 result in parts per million by volume?

Stu - you are mathematician. Can you help us with this one?
As stated previously, I'm not wanting to participate in a group maths debating session, but it's likely an approximation constant like, you know, as used in formulae such as



...Or to be precise

Quote:
Q. In terms of mass, how much carbon does 1 part per million by volume of atmospheric CO2 represent?
A. Using 5.137 x 1018 kg as the mass of the atmosphere (Trenberth, 1981 JGR 86:5238-46), 1 ppmv of CO2= 2.13 Gt of carbon
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) - Frequently Asked Questions

Let me know if you can't find your missing graphs. I'll post the link.

__________________
Reefmagnet is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 15:05   #1954
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,001
Images: 1
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
Of course it would. The blogger is a skeptic.



Aside from telling you exactly where it came from of course. You know,

"come from Law Dome (Etheridge et al., 1998), particularly the DE08 core"

As stated previously, I'm not wanting to participate in a group maths debating session, but it's likely an approximation constant like, you know, like used in formulae such as



...Or to be precise

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) - Frequently Asked Questions

Let me know if you can't find your missing graphs. I'll post the link.

Thanks for that.

I found the graph, they are from your blogger's website and stored on photobucket.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 15:19   #1955
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Wow. such reading comprehension.

recap:

Heh. Sometimes the color can't help but bleed through.

Exile gets all shirty when I mention the background colour of most AGW denial, so...

freyewe was implying colour as in political stripe. I'm guessing pink. As in lefty.

I responded in kind, and with regards to denial, not deniers.

How you get race/ethnicity out of that...

I'm a little embarrassed for YOU.... Of course you seldom miss an opportunity to push our buttons, do you?

Great work. Keep it up.
Past experience with your misstatements compels me to go with the entire exchange rather than your "recap."

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect:

The SOMEONE is WE, directly or through government funding and incentives, unless you're content in the knowledge that your wealth, race, or nationality will protect you from suffering any harm or loss. Or some BS about how 'the free market' will solve this, yet opposing any legitimate market tools like carbon pricing.

Heh. Sometimes the color can't help but bleed through.

Exile gets all shirty when I mention the background colour of most AGW denial, so...
__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 15:20   #1956
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 570
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
How you get race/ethnicity out of that...
Here, let me help you again...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect
...unless you're content in the knowledge that your wealth, race, or nationality will protect you from suffering any harm or loss...
...states quite explicitly that you think at least some skeptics/deniers/cynics (you choose) have base motivations such as racism, xenophobia, or classism.

And pink was close...but I was thinking more like rojo.

Edit: Oops, I forgot this....:big grin:
__________________
fryewe is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 15:25   #1957
Registered User
 
Reefmagnet's Avatar

Join Date: May 2008
Location: puɐןsuǝǝnb 'ʎɐʞɔɐɯ
Boat: Nantucket Island 33
Posts: 2,710
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Then I read:

"From 1750 to 1875, atmospheric CO2 rose at ten times the rate of the cumulative anthropogenic emissions…"

So I checked the CDIAC database and found that anthropogenic CO2 emissions had risen from 11 million tonnes per annum in 1751 to 689 million tonnes per annum in 1875, or 62 times higher or a 6200% increase. That is total of about 15 billions of CO2 that has accumulated from 1750 to 1875.

Then I checked the Law Dome Data at CDIAC

1747 276.9 ppm CO2

1877 288.8 ppm CO2

A 16.6% increase.

Since when is a 16.6% increase 10 times higher than 6200% increase.

Some numbers are rounded.

OK Stu - check my math.

The rest who like to jig numbers are welcome to check as as well.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2013.ems

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2...e.combined.dat
Using the 2.13 constant, atmospheric CO2 content increased by 25.347 Gigatonnes. Based on this anthropogenic emissions must have been in the vicinity of 2.5 Gigatonnes, I guess, which seems to be in the ball bark especially if one considers that emissions wouldn't have started to ramp up until around 1850.
__________________
Reefmagnet is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 15:32   #1958
Registered User
 
Reefmagnet's Avatar

Join Date: May 2008
Location: puɐןsuǝǝnb 'ʎɐʞɔɐɯ
Boat: Nantucket Island 33
Posts: 2,710
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Thanks for that.

I found the graph, they are from your blogger's website and stored on photobucket.
There's are link on the CDIAC website(I think) somewhere that shows this data, and other data, as graphs. Unfortunately, they look like they were done on an Atari 2600. Nevertheless the data points are the same.
__________________
Reefmagnet is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 15:33   #1959
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,525
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by fryewe View Post


Here, let me help you again...



...states quite explicitly that you think at least some skeptics/deniers/cynics (you choose) have base motivations such as racism, xenophobia, or classism.

And pink was close...but I was thinking more like rojo.

Edit: Oops, I forgot this....:big grin:
And I forgot the empty chair, in rojo no less.
Attached Images
 
__________________
Exile is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 16:01   #1960
Registered User

Join Date: May 2011
Location: Toronto
Boat: Sandpiper 565
Posts: 2,798
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Past experience with your misstatements compels me to go with the entire exchange rather than your "recap."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect:

The SOMEONE is WE, directly or through government funding and incentives, unless you're content in the knowledge that your wealth, race, or nationality will protect you from suffering any harm or loss. Or some BS about how 'the free market' will solve this, yet opposing any legitimate market tools like carbon pricing.

Heh. Sometimes the color can't help but bleed through.

Exile gets all shirty when I mention the background colour of most AGW denial, so...
Really? That's it? fryewe can use 'color' as metaphor for political leaning and I can't?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fryewe
...states quite explicitly that you think at least some skeptics/deniers/cynics (you choose) have base motivations such as racism, xenophobia, or classism.
Sorry, I don't see how you got that from the highlighted part of my quote. To attempt a rephrase, the implied motivation for inaction is "this (AGW) won't affect me", for the given reasons, and there has been more than one participant in these threads with pretty much that attitude. Rather a stretch to spin that into accusations of racism or classism. I have no idea how you could pry an accusation of xenophobia out of there. But you did!

Keep trying, though. Keep us on the straight and narrow. Nobody does political correctness like an angry conservative.

And, as usual lately, outstanding work on always making it about me, and totally avoiding the arguments.
__________________
Lake-Effect is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 16:19   #1961
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 570
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Nobody does political correctness like an angry conservative.

And, as usual lately, outstanding work on always making it about me, and totally avoiding the arguments.


Sorry, L-E, but it's about you because you choose to make it about you.

And where do you get the impression someone's angry? You don't have enough influence over my disposition, and probably Exile's, to make me crabby, let along angry. Sometimes you amuse me, but that's about it.

And here's a shovel to go with the mirror I offered you earlier.

By the way, if you would ever offer an argument, rather than the childish banter that you think passes for argument, someone might take the time to address it,
Your arguments in this and the related thread are mostly appeals to authority.

Generally, I don't take the time to engage deeply in the banter on here because discussion with the usual suspects here is like trying to piss up a rope, but occasionally an absurdity stands out that needs to be called for what it is. In the past few pages of dialog here, you have been the winner.

Now, for the next couple of days I'm going to be celebrating the people who gave my country the best recipe for social order ever devised by man, and won't have the time nor inclination for much else, but during my celebrations I'll raise a toast to our good northern neighbors despite minor differences.

Sail safe.
__________________
fryewe is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 16:52   #1962
Registered User

Join Date: May 2011
Location: Toronto
Boat: Sandpiper 565
Posts: 2,798
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
Now, for the next couple of days I'm going to be celebrating the people who gave my country the best recipe for social order ever devised by man, and won't have the time nor inclination for much else, but during my celebrations I'll raise a toast to our good northern neighbors despite minor differences.

Sail safe.
The flipside of freedom is responsibility.

Have a nice long weekend.
__________________
Lake-Effect is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 18:02   #1963
Senior Cruiser
 
StuM's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43
Posts: 6,090
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

[QUOTE=jackdale;2157071
Stu - you are mathematician. Can you help us with this one?[/QUOTE]

You're going to love this one!

From Skeptical Science:

"Atmospheric CO2 levels are expressed in parts per million by volume (ppm). To convert from ppm to gigatonne of carbon, the conversion tables of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center advise that 1 part per million of atmospheric CO2 is equivalent to 2.13 Gigatonnes Carbon. "

The attachment shows the actual math behind this.

(2.13 or 2.14 - rounding errors)
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	PPMCOnversionFactor.png
Views:	50
Size:	48.6 KB
ID:	127264  
__________________
StuM is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 18:07   #1964
Senior Cruiser
 
StuM's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43
Posts: 6,090
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Are you further predicting a continuing downward trend in temperatures following 2018?

We know that 2015 and 2016 were El Nino years and that the following years will most likely be La Nina. The ENSO discussion is currently

So your prediction has a very strong likelihood. Just as the years following the 1998 El Nino were cooler. Of course in 2016 we equaled or surpassed the 1998 record.
Thank you. Much more reasonable that your dismissive comment the last time I said the same thing
__________________
StuM is offline   Reply
Old 01-07-2016, 18:29   #1965
Senior Cruiser
 
StuM's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43
Posts: 6,090
Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Are you further predicting a continuing downward trend in temperatures following 2018?

We know that 2015 and 2016 were El Nino years and that the following years will most likely be La Nina. The ENSO discussion is currently



So your prediction has a very strong likelihood. Just as the years following the 1998 El Nino were cooler. Of course in 2016 we equaled or surpassed the 1998 record.



But El Nino and La Nina years have tended to the anomalous.

So what is your prediction of the trend? And on what basis do you make that prediction.?
Trends post 2018 are a different matter. I was solely debunking the claim that we would see declines in crop production because of higher temperatures by 2018.

It is worth noting that the difference between the peaks in 1998 and 2016 was about 0.1C. Which equates to a further rise of around 0.47C by the end of the century if the current "warming trend" continues.

There could well be a step change following this El Nio similar to the one in 1997/98 resulting in a small increase over the 1999-2015 average. A lot depends on which way the PDO and AMO go.

Based on those cycles and the direction that solar activity seems to be going, I'll stick my neck out and say that slight cooling over the following 20-30 years is more likely than not, despite rising CO2 levels. This could well be followed by another warming cycle.
__________________

__________________
StuM is offline   Reply
Closed Thread

Tags
arc, cooling, cruising

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
I love cruising because it teaches humility zboss General Sailing Forum 38 17-09-2014 19:38
A Boat Is Better than a Wife, Because . . . BlueWaterSail Off Topic Forum 94 20-02-2011 19:10
Current Strategies in Solar Power ? Roy M Electrical: Batteries, Generators & Solar 47 18-07-2010 05:37
i'm Really a Tiller Guy, because i Like the Responsiveness of a Multihull... Pipeline Multihull Sailboats 2 08-01-2010 07:32
Men return to Mountains and to the Sea because.... JohnnyB Challenges 4 10-10-2008 08:48


Our Communities

Our communities encompass many different hobbies and interests, but each one is built on friendly, intelligent membership.

» More about our Communities

Automotive Communities

Our Automotive communities encompass many different makes and models. From U.S. domestics to European Saloons.

» More about our Automotive Communities

Marine Communities

Our Marine websites focus on Cruising and Sailing Vessels, including forums and the largest cruising Wiki project on the web today.

» More about our Marine Communities


Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 09:45.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.