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Old 30-06-2016, 15:59   #1906
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Milankovitch cycles would indicate cooling, solar activity would indicate cooling, but it has been rapidly warming for the past 2.5 centuries as we dumped 1.5 trillion tonnes of CO2, a known GHG, into the atmosphere.
"Dumping" is what you do with your trash (and recycling, of course . . . virtue, virtue ) when you go to the landfill or the garbage co. does it for you. Or maybe what the equity markets do for a couple of days after a Brexit-type event.

Your oft-repeated 1.5 trillion tons (U.S. spelling, sorry) of CO2 in the past 250 years may be an accurate number as far as I know, and just like the "40% increase" certainly sounds alarming. But if you were interested in an informed, balanced, and educational discussion, you'd also compare the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere 250 years ago as compared to the 3% concentration we more or less have now. And of course you might also discuss, as mr__f did rather effectively I thought, why many but not all in the scientific community believe that this net increase in CO2 concentrations is unable to be absorbed and is therefore causing ALL of our warming.

Otherwise your use of alarmist descriptors is right up there with SailOar's watermelon-colored ice, mass heat-related deaths in NYC, and displaced whales & penguins. Your students graduated a long time ago and many of them, like many of the posters here, find high school debate team tactics as opposed to substance rather infantile.
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Old 30-06-2016, 17:17   #1907
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Your oft-repeated 1.5 trillion tons (U.S. spelling, sorry) of CO2 in the past 250 years may be an accurate number as far as I know, and just like the "40% increase" certainly sounds alarming. But if you were interested in an informed, balanced, and educational discussion, you'd also compare the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere 250 years ago as compared to the 3% concentration we more or less have now.
Um, right.

Current concentration of CO2 is around 400 ppm (0.04%)



400 ppm as a result of a 40% increase gives 400/1.4 which is about 286 ppm about 250 years ago.

(pretend that I just posted the CO2 vs years graph for the hundredth time in these threads )

You should have warned us that you're innumerate or that you find math to be alarming.
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Old 30-06-2016, 17:24   #1908
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
"Dumping" is what you do with your trash (and recycling, of course . . . virtue, virtue ) when you go to the landfill or the garbage co. does it for you. Or maybe what the equity markets do for a couple of days after a Brexit-type event.

Your oft-repeated 1.5 trillion tons (U.S. spelling, sorry) of CO2 in the past 250 years may be an accurate number as far as I know, and just like the "40% increase" certainly sounds alarming. But if you were interested in an informed, balanced, and educational discussion, you'd also compare the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere 250 years ago as compared to the 3% concentration we more or less have now. And of course you might also discuss, as mr__f did rather effectively I thought, why many but not all in the scientific community believe that this net increase in CO2 concentrations is unable to be absorbed and is therefore causing ALL of our warming.

Otherwise your use of alarmist descriptors is right up there with SailOar's watermelon-colored ice, mass heat-related deaths in NYC, and displaced whales & penguins. Your students graduated a long time ago and many of them, like many of the posters here, find high school debate team tactics as opposed to substance rather infantile.
Great straw man in the last paragraph if the second paragraph. Who make that claim? Not me. Not the IPCC. None of the climate scientists I have read. All recognize H2O as the dominant GHG. Methane, CFCs, HFCs, etc. are all identified as GHGs.

"Tonne" is the international measurement used in science. 1 tonne = 1,000 kilograms or approximately 2200 pounds for you denizens of one the three countries (USA, Liberia and Myanmar) on the planet that adhere to the Imperial system of measures.

Your understanding of fair and balanced is as shallow as Faux News.

I given you the references for the CO2 numbers. If you think that are spurious prove it, do not make snide insinuations.
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Old 30-06-2016, 17:39   #1909
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Don't mind me, I'm just enjoying the show. Everyone is running in circles here. No land in sight.

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Old 30-06-2016, 18:07   #1910
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Um, right.

Current concentration of CO2 is around 400 ppm (0.04%)



400 ppm as a result of a 40% increase gives 400/1.4 which is about 286 ppm about 250 years ago.

(pretend that I just posted the CO2 vs years graph for the hundredth time in these threads )

You should have warned us that you're innumerate or that you find math to be alarming.
And according to the IPCC (as of 2010 I think), the portion of that 0.04% total CO2 concentration which is human-derived (or maybe fossil fuels only?) is 3%. I know the next stat sounds alarming to those who prefer propaganda over truth, but even my limited math skills suggest that means 97% of the CO2 in the atmosphere is from natural sources. mr__f kindly filled in what some of the science believes is the significance of this, and Delfin sometimes not-so-kindly refuted it. Please feel free to demonstrate your obviously superior math skills in whatever way makes you feel safe, but the number I'm looking for from a relevant year in the past is the percentage of human derived CO2 as compared to the total.

It's more about logic than math, since discussing "warming," "polluting," or total numbers of tons of CO2 "dumped" is pretty useless without distinguishing btwn. natural & human causes in a more relevant way. Jack obviously knows this but chooses more alarming ways to get his points across. But I'm afraid you simply don't know this. But should you have a more lucid moment, you might then understand why some of us have been asking when the last time the Arctic sea ice extent was this low, why the pre-industrial MWP experienced higher temps than are predicted for us over the next century, how many times coral reefs suffered bleaching episodes in the past . . . you're starting to catch on, right?

Nice photo. Selfie? Surprising as I figured you for at least into your (early) teenage years.
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Old 30-06-2016, 18:13   #1911
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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And according to the IPCC (as of 2010 I think), the portion of that 0.04% total CO2 concentration which is human-derived (or maybe fossil fuels only?) is 3%.
100% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 2.5 centuries is from human sources.

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Old 30-06-2016, 18:17   #1912
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Um, right.

Current concentration of CO2 is around 400 ppm (0.04%)



400 ppm as a result of a 40% increase gives 400/1.4 which is about 286 ppm about 250 years ago.

(pretend that I just posted the CO2 vs years graph for the hundredth time in these threads )

You should have warned us that you're innumerate or that you find math to be alarming.
Not that I want to participate in this maths debating fest, but this reminds me of the 97% fat free snack. If you're an alarmist then it contains 3% fat; Just like a "40% CO2 increase" that sounds a helluva lot scarier than a "0.0115% atmospheric content increase" when it comes to carbon emissions.

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Old 30-06-2016, 18:17   #1913
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Great straw man in the last paragraph if the second paragraph. Who make that claim? Not me. Not the IPCC. None of the climate scientists I have read. All recognize H2O as the dominant GHG. Methane, CFCs, HFCs, etc. are all identified as GHGs.

"Tonne" is the international measurement used in science. 1 tonne = 1,000 kilograms or approximately 2200 pounds for you denizens of one the three countries (USA, Liberia and Myanmar) on the planet that adhere to the Imperial system of measures.

Your understanding of fair and balanced is as shallow as Faux News.

I given you the references for the CO2 numbers. If you think that are spurious prove it, do not make snide insinuations.
"The last paragraph if the second paragraph?" Where would that be? Canadians and other countries write "tonne," and Americans write "ton." Seems workable to me, but if you think writing "tonne" makes you sound more "scientific" then by all means.

If "snide insinuations" was the standard then your post count would be way down. Kinda like your directive to focus on the message not the messenger, but then your most recent of countless examples of describing The Daily Caller "poop."

Like I said, much of this debate comes down to credibility.
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Old 30-06-2016, 18:25   #1914
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Not that I want to participate in this maths debating fest, but this reminds me of the 97% fat free snack. If you're an alarmist then it contains 3% fat; Just like a "40% CO2 increase" that sounds a helluva lot scarier than a "0.0115% atmospheric content increase" when it comes to carbon emissions.

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That's true. You have to provide some context for the numbers if you want to present the theories they support honestly.
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Old 30-06-2016, 18:28   #1915
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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"The last paragraph if the second paragraph?" Where would that be? Canadians and other countries write "tonne," and Americans write "ton." Seems workable to me, but if you think writing "tonne" makes you sound more "scientific" then by all means.

If "snide insinuations" was the standard then your post count would be way down. Kinda like your directive to focus on the message not the messenger, but then your most recent of countless examples of describing The Daily Caller "poop."

Like I said, much of this debate comes down to credibility.
Tonne is the measurement used by the CDIAC, the source of my data. 1 tonnes = 1.1 tons. They are not the same thing.

Sorry - the last sentence of the second paragraph is a huge straw man.

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Old 30-06-2016, 18:31   #1916
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Not that I want to participate in this maths debating fest, but this reminds me of the 97% fat free snack. If you're an alarmist then it contains 3% fat; Just like a "40% CO2 increase" that sounds a helluva lot scarier than a "0.0115% atmospheric content increase" when it comes to carbon emissions.

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Quote:
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That's true. You have to provide some context for the numbers if you want to present the theories they support honestly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
100% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 2.5 centuries is from human sources.

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And here we have another timely example! Thanks Jack!
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Old 30-06-2016, 18:34   #1917
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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...Canadians and other countries write "tonne," and Americans write "ton." Seems workable to me, but if you think writing "tonne" makes you sound more "scientific" then by all means...

tonne. /tʌn/ noun.

1. a unit of mass equal to 1000 kg or 2204.6 pounds Also called (not in technical use) metric ton.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The British ton is the long ton, which is 2240 pounds, and the U.S. ton is the short ton which is 2000 pounds. Both tons are actually defined in the same way. 1 ton is equal to 20 hundredweight. It is just the definition of the hundredweight that differs between countries.
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Old 30-06-2016, 18:43   #1918
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Don't mind me, I'm just enjoying the show. Everyone is running in circles here. No land in sight.

Wish you'd dig out your sextant now and then and give us an azimuth.
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Old 30-06-2016, 18:59   #1919
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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100% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 2.5 centuries is from human sources.

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What makes you so sure about that?



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Old 30-06-2016, 19:02   #1920
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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What makes you so sure about
Carbon isotope analysis.

BTW your graph ends in 1875.

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