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Old 29-06-2016, 14:40   #1816
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I do get the "sense" -- but mostly from this thread and the many links that I've had time to read -- that there appears to be more scientific consensus agreeing with this position (i.e. not much impact if any from solar) than most other natural forcings. But what do I know?? Sailorchic linked us to some reports awhile back from scientists at both NASA & NOAA saying that there may be more of an impact than first realized, and that much of it was still unknown. I hope that's a fair synopsis.

So what does a skeptic do with this one?
Sailorchic quite mined that article from NASA.

Here is a report that hints maybe a small amount of warming from natural causes.

Quote:
Climate Dynamics
pp 1-20
First online: 06 April 2016
A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution
Aurélien Ribes , Francis W. Zwiers, Jean-Marc Azaïs, Philippe Naveau
We propose here a new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution that is based on additive decomposition and simple hypothesis testing. Most current statistical methods for detection and attribution rely on linear regression models where the observations are regressed onto expected response patterns to different external forcings. These methods do not use physical information provided by climate models regarding the expected response magnitudes to constrain the estimated responses to the forcings. Climate modelling uncertainty is difficult to take into account with regression based methods and is almost never treated explicitly. As an alternative to this approach, our statistical model is only based on the additivity assumption; the proposed method does not regress observations onto expected response patterns. We introduce estimation and testing procedures based on likelihood maximization, and show that climate modelling uncertainty can easily be accounted for. Some discussion is provided on how to practically estimate the climate modelling uncertainty based on an ensemble of opportunity. Our approach is based on the “models are statistically indistinguishable from the truth” paradigm, where the difference between any given model and the truth has the same distribution as the difference between any pair of models, but other choices might also be considered. The properties of this approach are illustrated and discussed based on synthetic data. Lastly, the method is applied to the linear trend in global mean temperature over the period 1951–2010. Consistent with the last IPCC assessment report, we find that most of the observed warming over this period (+0.65 K) is attributable to anthropogenic forcings (+0.67 ±± 0.12 K, 90 % confidence range), with a very limited contribution from natural forcings (−0.01±0.02−0.01±0.02 K).
When found in a hole a skeptic would stop digging, a denier goes for a bigger shovel.
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Old 29-06-2016, 14:51   #1817
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I mean like you, Stu, newhaul... you guys are thinking about it. Don't get a swelled head on me now...

No chance of that. Those guys and many others have a more relevant background to forming opinions on science issues based on their own analysis. All I can do is try and survey the different opinions, carefully apply some logic, and consider bias and motivation. But if nothing else, these threads have confirmed that many of the AGW proponents are not to be trusted, and there is regrettably way too little objectivity and way too much personal & political motivation to simply buy into the mainstream view without a heavy grain of salt.

I call out a sh!t site... and I'm intolerant. Got it.
No, you're intolerant because you've consistently demonstrated your intolerance from the beginning of the other thread. Your hit job on Daily Caller is because you are intolerant of conservatives generally and Third Day in particular. Next time it will be someone else who cites to an article you don't happen to approve of, but is nevertheless accurate & truthful. Meanwhile DC got it right -- along with many other publications I found on Google -- about the DOJ/state AG investigations/prosecutions. But does that even matter when you've labeled an entire publication and its readership as "sh!t?"
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Old 29-06-2016, 14:55   #1818
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) was a Swedish scientist that was the first to claim in 1896 that fossil fuel combustion may eventually result in enhanced global warming. He proposed a relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature.

Read more: History of the greenhouse effect and global warming


So the evidence you cite in support of "fraud" and "racketeering" is that the head of Exxon acknowledged the scientific theory supporting the relationship btwn. CO2 and warming in 1977, or 81 years after it was first put forward. But then Exxon has been trying to "suppress" and "mislead the public" ever since about a universally recognized theory that, unlike the bad health effects from tobacco, remains a theory to this day, and one which even you apparently doesn't believe warrants categorizing as scientific "fact."

There are several inaccuracies in Lenntech's (a for-profit corporation listing Shell, Cargill, Volkswagen and Saudi Chevron as references) version of climate change history. The history you linked to is a much altered sort-of synopsis of global warning that fulfills the pseudo-skeptical need to promote a nonexistent controversy within the scientific community.

You can read the original unaltered version of the paper by Maslin, M., 'Global Warming, a very short introduction', here and compare them for yourself.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...JOUag4y7__UDUQ

Another very good, non-commercial, academic history is found here:

https://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.htm


Scientific theory and law do not describe the same thing. What it seems you are referring to is an hypothesis. A theory, meant scientifically, is the highest level a group of ideas and explanations can reach in scientific endeavors. Perhaps it's better to let Wikipedia explain it:


Both scientific laws and scientific theories are produced from the scientific method through the formation and testing of hypotheses, and can predict the behavior of the natural world. Both are typically well-supported by observations and/or experimental evidence.[26] However, scientific laws are descriptive accounts of how nature will behave under certain conditions.[27] Scientific theories are broader in scope, and give overarching explanations of how nature works and why it exhibits certain characteristics. Theories are supported by evidence from many different sources, and may contain one or several laws.[28]
A common misconception is that scientific theories are rudimentary ideas that will eventually graduate into scientific laws when enough data and evidence have been accumulated. A theory does not change into a scientific law with the accumulation of new or better evidence. A theory will always remain a theory; a law will always remain a law.[26][29][30] Both theories and laws could potentially be falsified by countervailing evidence.[31]
Theories and laws are also distinct from hypotheses. Unlike hypotheses, theories and laws may be simply referred to as scientific fact.[32][33] However, in science, theories are different from facts even when they are well supported.[34] For example, evolution is both a theory and a fact.[4]
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Old 29-06-2016, 14:55   #1819
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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[COLOR="navy"]You yourself have long acknowledged that our current warming, like Arctic ice melt, is the result of natural and human forces, and know all too well that the scientific debate is mostly about the ratio.
The main area of debate seems much more focused on climate sensitivity to continuing increases of greenhouse gasses.

So, from this can we take it that you agree humans have a hand in the rapid recent warming of the planet?

Judith curry has said "around 50% or even a little less" is down to humans - would you agree with her?
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Old 29-06-2016, 14:59   #1820
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

There is a Canadian connection to Peabody

Quote:
Recently we learned that the Competition Bureau is going to investigate several climate change denier groups that have publicly misrepresented climate science on billboards and the web. This is great news for those who want an honest conversation about climate change.

Last December we helped six prominent Canadians apply for this investigation, arguing the denier groups have violated the Competition Act by making materially false or misleading representations about climate science for the purpose of promoting business interests, such as fossil fuel development. Then we asked you to support us by writing to the Commissioner of Competition. Many of you did -- and it worked!

So, why would denier groups continue to misrepresent climate science when the overwhelming majority of credible climate science supports the reality of human-caused global warming? One likely motive is to protect fossil fuel business interests from cleaner, greener competition.

And wouldn't you know it, just last week one of the denier groups highlighted in the application -- Friends of Science -- was revealed to be a creditor of now-bankrupt Peabody Energy. Once the world's largest private coal company, Peabody's bankruptcy has shed light on the funding it provided to a network of climate denier groups.
The Age Of Accountability Begins For Climate Change DeniersÂ*|Â*Ecojustice
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:13   #1821
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Sailorchic quite mined that article from NASA.

Sorry, but at this point you'll have to back that assertion up for it to be persuasive. As I recall it consisted of at least one pretty lengthy direct quote from one of these NASA or NOAA scientists.

Here is a report that hints maybe a small amount of warming from natural causes.

One report. What is the honest consensus amongst scientists on this? It seems as though when you decline to answer and instead demand that others validate your incomplete and often misleading assertions, it doesn't go well for you or your apparently very personal view of the science.

When found in a hole a skeptic would stop digging, a denier goes for a bigger shovel.
I'll make a deal with you. I'll stop digging if you start presenting honest, balanced, and complete information that fairly represents the state of the science. If nothing else, it would engender more respect for the scientific opinions you do hold.
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:15   #1822
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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More like the Canadians taking a page out of the U.S. Democratic Party playbook. But hey, it's only an "investigation," right?
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:16   #1823
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I'll make a deal with you. I'll stop digging if you start presenting honest, balanced, and complete information that fairly represents the state of the science. If nothing else, it would engender more respect for the scientific opinions you do hold.
I do post what represents the science.

What do want - Daily Caller?
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:16   #1824
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Meanwhile to OP's question.

Arctic ice extent continues to track below the 2012 record year with about 80 days to get the minimum.
Record year since 1979.

(Shh! No one mention the 20's and 70's)
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:22   #1825
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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What "natural causes" are causing the extremely rapid warming trend?
What extremely rapid warming trend would that be?

The one in the 80s and 90s which was indistinguishable from two prior periods in the instrumental record?

There is no current "extremely rapid warming trend", so your use of the present tense "causing" is clearly in error.
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:22   #1826
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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No, you're intolerant because you've consistently demonstrated your intolerance from the beginning of the other thread. Your hit job on Daily Caller is because you are intolerant of conservatives generally and Third Day in particular. Next time it will be someone else who cites to an article you don't happen to approve of, but is nevertheless accurate & truthful. Meanwhile DC got it right -- along with many other publications I found on Google -- about the DOJ/state AG investigations/prosecutions. But does that even matter when you've labeled an entire publication and its readership as "sh!t?"
I disagree with many conservatives, I am dismissive of the willfully ignorant, regardless of political stripe. Third Day defies categorization.

DC's article title: Dem Party Platform Calls For Prosecuting Global Warming Skeptics

And you know this isn't true. But I guess it's 'truthy' enough for you.
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:22   #1827
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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The main area of debate seems much more focused on climate sensitivity to continuing increases of greenhouse gasses.

That's true as well, and this area of negative feedbacks is also poorly understood at this point in time. I don't think the fact that this uncertainty exists is controversial within the scientific community.

So, from this can we take it that you agree humans have a hand in the rapid recent warming of the planet?

I think there first has to be some agreement that recent warming has in fact been "rapid." Might depend on which temperature set you're relying on.

Judith curry has said "around 50% or even a little less" is down to humans - would you agree with her?
I cannot make that judgment. I think the opinions of all the scientists are worth considering. The real issue is at what point does the theory/fact/law warrant more human mitigation and to what extent.
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:27   #1828
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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More like the Canadians taking a page out of the U.S. Democratic Party playbook. But hey, it's only an "investigation," right?
Need we remind you of Cuccinelli's attacks on Mann. Or the relentless hostility toward Ben Santer? Or Lamar Smith's and James Inhofe's investigations of climate scientists. Or Fred Singer's injunction against one of Revelle's assistants.

Still waiting for the evidence of "factually inaccuracies" in James Powell. Since his work was peer-reviewed, I would prefer peer-reviewed works from you.

Here we have truth-in-advertising laws.
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:30   #1829
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Really Rich, you consider this a reliable source?

I don't really know if I should shake my head in disbelieve or if I should consider the slight possibility that you are trolling again .

Yeah Rich, you are too smart and too well educated for that. You are dropping bait and everyone is jumping right on to it. Most likely you are in your cockpit rolling on the teak deck laughing your behind off.

Rich, you are a funny guy, I'll give you that.
Finally someone understands me...
Back to the teak deck removal and laughing....
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Old 29-06-2016, 15:34   #1830
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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What extremely rapid warming trend would that be?

The one in the 80s and 90s which was indistinguishable from two prior periods in the instrumental record?

There is no current "extremely rapid warming trend", so your use of the present tense "causing" is clearly in error.
Really

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201601.pdf

During the PETM, 56 million years ago, the Earth warmed around 6°C (11°F) over 20,000 years, although some estimates are that the warming was more like 9°C (16°F). Using the low end of that estimated range, the globe warmed around 0.025°C every 100 years. Today, the globe is warming at least ten times as fast, anywhere from 1 to 4°C every 100 years.
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