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Old 20-06-2016, 21:33   #1546
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
If it was good enough for Plato, Socrates, Aristotles and Pythagoras to use in their arguments, it's good enough for me.

Are you insinuating that Reductio ad absurdum is not a valid logical argument?
Sorry StuM, but taking a truth to an extreme end does end up in the absurd. So I would disagree in it being logical.

However I would say this. Climate extremists are falling into this basic error of logic and have become actors in the play of the absurd.
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Old 20-06-2016, 21:46   #1547
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by Going Walkabout View Post
Sorry StuM, but taking a truth to an extreme end does end up in the absurd. So I would disagree in it being logical.

However I would say this. Climate extremists are falling into this basic error of logic and have become actors in the play of the absurd.
Don't think this is quite right. Reductio ad absurdum takes a fallacy, not a truth, that may appear to be true when evaluated under moderate conditions to the boundary condition. At the boundary, the absurd result reveals that the statement or argument is, in fact, fallacious...because it falls on its face at the boundary condition.

A truth at the extremes is still true.

From wikipedia:

Quote:
Reductio ad absurdum, also known as argumentum ad absurdum, is a common form of argument which seeks to demonstrate that a statement is true by showing that a false, untenable, or absurd result follows from its denial, or in turn to demonstrate that a statement is false by showing that a false, untenable, or absurd result follows from its acceptance.
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Old 20-06-2016, 21:54   #1548
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Meanwhile according to the Canadian government the northwest passage in the archipelagos is still frozen. At 10/10
Environment and Climate Change Canada - Weather and Meteorology - Full resolution map
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Old 20-06-2016, 22:15   #1549
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Stu - the 60's / 70's cooling was the result of increased industrial aerosols, nothing natural about that. The LIA has been linked to volcanic aerosols.

Droughts were common during the MWP. Read Brian Fagan, The Great Warming.

I just want to stabilize the climate by ceasing to dump waste CO2 into the atmosphere.
If you want stability, you need the world to warm. A warmer climate is historically the more stable on past record.



Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
From Dr Patrick Moore - co-founder of Greenpeace:

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpr...-emissions.pdf

Executive Summary:
This study looks at the positive environmental effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,a topic which has been well established in the scientific literature but which is far too oftenignored in the current discussions about climate change policy.

All life is carbon based and the primary source of this carbon is the CO2 in the global atmosphere.

As recently as 18,000 years ago, at the height of the most recent major glaciation, CO2dipped to its lowest level in recorded history at 180 ppm, low enough to stunt plant growth. This is only 30 ppm above a level that would result in the death of plants due to CO2 starvation.

It is calculated that if the decline in CO2 levels were to continue at the same rate as it has over the past 140 million years, life on Earth would begin to die as soon as two million years from now and would slowly perish almost entirely as carbon continued to be lost to the deep ocean sediments.

The combustion of fossil fuels for energy to power human civilization has reversed the downward trend in CO2 and promises to bring it back to levels that are likely to foster a considerable increase in the growth rate and biomass of plants, including food crops and trees.

Human emissions of CO2 have restored a balance to the global carbon cycle, thereby ensuring the long-term continuation of life on Earth.

This extremely positive aspect of human CO2 emissions must be weighed against the unproven hypothesis that human CO2 emissions will cause a catastrophic warming of the climate in coming years.

The one-sided political treatment of CO2 as a pollutant that should be radically reduced must be corrected in light of the indisputable scientific evidence that it is essential to life on Earth.
Golf clap. Referring to the graph above, that is actually a very logical and entirely plausible scenario.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
Don't think this is quite right. Reductio ad absurdum takes a fallacy, not a truth, that may appear to be true when evaluated under moderate conditions to the boundary condition. At the boundary, the absurd result reveals that the statement or argument is, in fact, fallacious...because it falls on its face at the boundary condition.

A truth at the extremes is still true.

From wikipedia:
I wished I'd learnt to speak Latin. To me it's just a font.
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Old 20-06-2016, 22:46   #1550
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
Don't think this is quite right. Reductio ad absurdum takes a fallacy, not a truth, that may appear to be true when evaluated under moderate conditions to the boundary condition. At the boundary, the absurd result reveals that the statement or argument is, in fact, fallacious...because it falls on its face at the boundary condition.

A truth at the extremes is still true.

From wikipedia:
Since life itself is absurd all premises dealing with life end in the absurd. :-)

Chaya



One should respect public opinion insofar as is necessary to avoid starvation and keep out of prison, but anything that goes beyond this is voluntary submission to an unnecessary tyranny.

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Old 20-06-2016, 23:14   #1551
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Compared to the vast herds that used to exist (e.g. North America's Bison), the herds of today contribute the square root of sweet FA.

Doesn't the methane production of just termites absolutely dwarf that anyway?

Then of course there's the methane producers in the Oceans, which make up over 70% of the World's surface . . . .

Don't disparage "Doing nothing."

Far more frequently than some of you seem to even begin to appreciate, doing nothing is far and away the best option. It is indeed a highly valuable strategy, that should never be ruled out.

PS The Lipid hypothesis was debunked a very long time ago now (1950's?). Cholesterol does not seem to be the problem, it would appear to be inflammation that's the real problem, and the biggest cause of inflammation, is a high carbohydrate diet combined with low saturated (animal) fat. Fats tend to have been replaced with vegetable oils, that are mostly BAD for us (especially when hydrogenated).

The human body needs zero carbohydrates, yet high carb and low fat is what has been pushed at us as important, for about 50 years.

A link to someone who 'gets it' - https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231438

PS. This is why Sweden, after considering over 14,000 studies, has acknowledged that its prior dietary advice was WRONG, and has revised its dietary advice as a result.
When I read this from you " Don't disparage "Doing nothing."

Far more frequently than some of you seem to even begin to appreciate, doing nothing is far and away the best option. It is indeed a highly valuable strategy, that should never be ruled out."

My mind went to the discussion on AGW. Isn't the earth itself a living organism. Why wouldn't your logic apply to the earth?

Bravo by the way on all you salors who are obviously far more intelligent than the vast majority. And bravo to Dr. Weavis. A doctor who understands instinctively the bodies own power to heal and who embraces this in his approach to medicine. Using medical science in a very intelligent way, dare I say.
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Old 20-06-2016, 23:17   #1552
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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I wonder why Russia has just launched a new icebreaker?
Opening up a new shipping route for its global fossil fuel transportation.
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Old 20-06-2016, 23:28   #1553
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

I'm wondering if all this talk about CC in respect of the polar region is making some people bi-polar.
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Old 21-06-2016, 01:15   #1554
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

On a lighter note : When you look up tonight and see a full moon, then keep in mind that a Strawberry Moon on Solstice is a rather rare occurrence.
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Old 21-06-2016, 07:07   #1555
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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When you look up tonight and see a full moon, then keep in mind that a Strawberry Moon on Solstice is a rather rare occurrence.
We were treated to a beautiful rising full moon Sunday evening as we returned to the slip from a great day out. My wife informed me it was a Strawberry Moon, but we didn't pair that with the fact that it was also the solstice. So, cool.

A full moon might explain the latest outbreak here.

Deniers comparing their CF offerings to those of Plato, Socrates, Aristotles and Pythagoras... heady stuff.
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Old 21-06-2016, 07:13   #1556
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Meanwhile according to the Canadian government the northwest passage in the archipelagos is still frozen. At 10/10
Environment and Climate Change Canada - Weather and Meteorology - Full resolution map
Minimum ice extant usually occurs around the middle of September, so we've got a ways to go.

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Old 21-06-2016, 07:14   #1557
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Old 21-06-2016, 07:21   #1558
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Permafrost Thawing Below Shallow Arctic Lakes Due To Winter Climate Change | Science World Report
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A research reveals that the thick frozen sub-layer of soil underneath the shallow arctic lakes is thawing because of the changing winter climate.

The study was published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. It was led by Christopher Arp, the lead author of the study and the research assistant professor at The University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) Water and Environmental Research Center and other colleagues.

Christopher Arp explained that the late winter lake ice thickness depths commonly exceeded 2 meters (6.5 feet) in northern Alaska in the 1970s. This thick ice growth helps to limit sub-lake permafrost thaw by freezing the residues solid each winter. On the other hand, he said that during winter field surveys over the last decade, the lake ice has typically only grown to 1.5 meters (5 feet) thick and has been as thin as 1.2 meters (4 feet).

The lake ice is heading to sub-lake permafrost thaw now. The rising temperatures in the lakebeds make the permafrost thaw than beneath the surrounding dry land. The lakes may enfold 20 to 40 percent of the landscape in vast areas of Arctic lowlands.

The main reason for the warming of the shallow lakebed temperatures and the thawing of the permafrost is caused by changes in the winter climate. The findings of the study are significant for conducting winter fieldwork in the Arctic.

Vladimir Romanovsky of the UAF Geophysical Institute and the co-author of the study stated that with the further thawing of sub-lake permafrost there is a good chance that the ground will descend. This increases the lake depth and quickening further permafrost thawing. He further said that the warming on the land may augment the protective vegetation layer and defer thawing of permafrost outside of lakes.

Arp also said that with increasingly warmer and snowier winters producing thinner lake ice, the shallow lakes will likely continue to warm.
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Old 21-06-2016, 07:52   #1559
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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If you want stability, you need the world to warm. A warmer climate is historically the more stable on past record.
This is the stable system that existed for 800,000 years.



During that time, humans and their food crops evolved and were domesticated.

In 1751, humans emitted 11 million tonnes of CO2 per annum. In 2013 that number had risen to 36 billion tonnes of CO2. Over that time span 1.5 tonnes tonnes of CO2 were emitted. Hence the huge uptick at the end of the graph. The last time CO2 levels were at the current levels was 3 - 5 million years.
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Old 21-06-2016, 07:56   #1560
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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This is the stable system that existed for 800,000 years.



During that time, humans and their food crops evolved and were domesticated.

In 1751, humans emitted 11 million tonnes of CO2 per annum. In 2013 that number had risen to 36 billion tonnes of CO2. Over that time span 1.5 tonnes tonnes of CO2 were emitted. Hence the huge uptick at the end of the graph. The last time CO2 levels were at the current levels was 3 - 5 million years.
Irrelevant conjecture doesn't change the facts.

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