Originally Posted by sarafina
I think the better question is was there sufficient info available BEFORE venturing out to have made this a clearly inadvisable trip?
Just FYI, I just finished a delivery
to the BVI. We left the evening of the 1st from Norfolk, just as the 'Halloween storm' abated. We had information/input from two of the 'brand name' shore weather
routers and both said we were nuts, that the models showed we would have 40kts in the gulf stream
and large breaking waves and that we should wait until the 3rd. At that point they were not so concerned with the low that turned into Sean, they seemed to think it would be a typical frontal system without that much punch and moving thru reasonably quickly - just the normal sort of think you usually have to deal with at least once on a run to the Caribbean
But sitting there on the boat, it was obvious that the weather
on the 1st was clearing much faster than the models predicted, so we felt we would have a brisk but quite safe gulf stream
crossing and we were more concerned with getting out in front of the second low (what turned into Sean) both because my experience is that those sort of lows can (and in this case did) intensify 'unexpectedly' and because we wanted to use it to 'slingshot' with the northerly winds on its western side but did not want to get pinched too far to the west/too near the coast to do so.
We had a brisk but terrific safe and fast run. Generally 30kts sustained for the first couple days with occasional squalls with initial winds into the 40's and one squall with initial winds into the low 50's, waves not so bad once we were thru the north wall of the gulf stream.
The 'normal' routing for this trip is to get over to 65west (called 'I65' by the delivery
captains) by about 26N in order to have enough easting when you hit the trades. It sounds like Sanctuary was following this typical route
. But it was obvious even quite early (on the 1st) that this was not the year to do that and that it made sense to stay further west to stay on the favorbale side of the low.
But to the question - the 'weather experts' on the 1st and 2nd were aware of but generally not so concerned with the developing low, more concerned at that point with letting the gulf stream settle after the Halloween blow.
If you went to sea during that period, and 'the plan' was heading to Bermuda
and then onto the Caribbean
, I would suggest you should have changed your plan as Sean's development because obvious (on say the 2nd or 3rd). One option would be to do as Herb was recommending on the SSB
net - essentially just to relax and heave-to for 4 or 5 days until sean cleared out, OR I would probably have changed routing to slingshot around the western side of Sean and direct onto the Caribbean. Continuing onto Bermuda
was going to put you right in the path with wind
direction becoming increasingly unfavorable.