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Old 28-12-2011, 17:53   #61
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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Originally Posted by Blue Stocking View Post
This probably won't make it past the "be nice" warning but "pleasure cruising" through known pirate activity areas is just as stupid as pedal cycling across Iran, extreme snow ski-ing in avalanches, kissing sharks in the caribbean feeding holes,etc.
Any captain who places his crew in this kind of dangerous situation is, --well!--not a captain.
Sorry folks, how many times do you have to tell'um.
People pat the bears and lions in the zoo's and parks, And then wonder why they dont have an arm or leg, Duuhhhhhhh.

Sailing through a Pirate infested ocean is the same thing,

You cant protect people from themselves, Waste of time and effort,
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Old 16-01-2012, 11:42   #62
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

prehaps the only real solution is a local solution if the reports at 43 Pirates Arrested, Extensive Shore-Based Anti-Piracy Operations Continue in Somalia | gCaptain - Maritime & Offshore are true then our respective governmets and the crusing community should be more suportive IMHO
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Old 16-01-2012, 13:36   #63
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

We'll see in time!
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Old 16-01-2012, 14:48   #64
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

Sorting out Somalia?!?

may i give some little information i know about Somalia.
I have been working for a project (humanitarian, not UN) for the last 1 1/2 years and have been there before as well.
I spent all summed up ~4-5 months there and was there the last time in October.

Somalia is an extreme complex country, if you can even call it a country, it's more a conglomerate of different clans which are more or less accepting to live with each other.
Somali people are extremely clever and very friendly, once you get to know them. They have a great sense for family and the family there includes EVERYBODY which is part of the clan, sub-clan, sub sub clan, sub sub sub....

their loyalty goes along this lines, there are clans which are closer, and some which are enemies, but if trouble comes up, one has to stand for the clan, no matter what

this makes the building and supporting of a central power very very difficult. I have often discussed with my somali colleagues what would be the best solution for this conflict and they themselves had no convincing answer to this.
they told me, if you give the power to one clan it will abuse the power as much as possible to get as much money out of it as you can.
all somali governments since the fall of Siad Barre have been like this.

And with the very little natural resources found in Somalia, the international community has little interest in solving the conflict there, especially after what the US experienced with Black Hawk down in Mogadishu.

A solution to the conflict would be, according to what i think, only a massive UN peacekeeping intervention. Which would costs hundreds of millions every year.
An the soldiers deployed for this would need to be moslems themselves. They don't believe us "infidels", especially in the south where the Al Shabab wants to create a Sharia law territory.

The piracy is only a cause of all of this. They started as there where little they could do else after the waters where completely emptied by foreign fishing ships. People starves to death in Somalia on a daily basis and they needed to "find" some money.
It got now out of hand and it turned into business, BIG business.

I had pirates as neighbors (though never saw them, as i was living in closed compound) and they are terrorizing the people there and most of them hate them. but then on the other hand, every successful hijacking of a ship would mean money for the whole attached clan.
The communities try to get rid of them but is difficult, as they are generating income in the places they live (housing, cars, etc etc)

In my opinion, the only way to get rid of the pirates is to massively improve the living quality in Somalia.
This young guys grew up in 20 years of violence, to them a live doesn't mean much. they had to fight for their survival so for them it is better to gamble their lives in the try of hijacking other then continuing a life with no hope at all to improve their own situation.

just my thoughts
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Old 16-01-2012, 15:41   #65
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

From your post and experience it doesn't seem even the Somalis believe the country can be brought together, so I don't see the rest of the world wanting to take that on.

So all this leaves is brutal crushing of the pirates.
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Old 16-01-2012, 16:21   #66
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

Quote:
Originally Posted by H.S.Hemingway View Post
Somalia is an extreme complex country, if you can even call it a country, it's more a conglomerate of different clans which are more or less accepting to live with each other.

Somali people are extremely clever and very friendly, once you get to know them. They have a great sense for family and the family there includes EVERYBODY which is part of the clan, sub-clan, sub sub clan, sub sub sub....

their loyalty goes along this lines, there are clans which are closer, and some which are enemies, but if trouble comes up, one has to stand for the clan, no matter what

this makes the building and supporting of a central power very very difficult. I have often discussed with my somali colleagues what would be the best solution for this conflict and they themselves had no convincing answer to this.

they told me, if you give the power to one clan it will abuse the power as much as possible to get as much money out of it as you can.

all somali governments since the fall of Siad Barre have been like this.
I think the answer is to deal with the reality as it is, not as folk may want it to be. Somalia is not a country - never has been and never will be.

Split off Somaliland (I hear moves in that direction are - at long last - on the table) - give them a coast guard capability to a) look after own coastline and b) extend that reach a bit.....the advantages that they have over the international navies is that they are not going anywhere (when they get bored) and the Pirates will know they won't be using kid gloves......

Splitting off Puntland would be me my ideal solution, but failing that divide the rump of Somalia down into Federal autonomous and regional semi-autonomous areas, broadly following tribal (Clan) loyalties.....all topped off by an intentionally weak national govt, that issues the stamps and makes all the right noises. Won't be a route to prosperity (nor even "peace") but would help contain the problems.

In the interim perfectly possible to train up a Somali regional Coastguard force including folks from the coastal regions (trained abroad - and possibly also initially based outside Somalia). Could even expand the CG to include a regiment (or 2?!) of Somali Marines, overseas training - including in other worldwide trouble spots.......apart from the added security provided to shipping, would also be a way of getting money into the local economy.....and using locals means you get a useful channel of intel - even if not of specifics, who is on the up and who is not is useful to know for "others" to use........only need one place in Somalia to drop off captured Pirates to deal with them under Somali law ......would also be cheaper than permanently basing naval forces in the area.
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Old 16-01-2012, 22:42   #67
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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From your post and experience it doesn't seem even the Somalis believe the country can be brought together, so I don't see the rest of the world wanting to take that on.

So all this leaves is brutal crushing of the pirates.
hei Don Lucas, i don't think violence will solve this issue. For every pirate you shoot, there are ten waiting to go out...
The Somalis are very proud, so they would take it the wrong way if you would follow down this path, it would increase the problem we are facing right now as you would radicalize the pirates even more.
At the moment, if ransom is paid or if there is a slight chance to get it they will not harm the crew too much, but if we begin shooting at everything moving offshore the Somali coats we will get more in trouble and more (westerners) life's will be lost.
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Old 16-01-2012, 22:47   #68
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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Originally Posted by H.S.Hemingway View Post
hei Don Lucas, i don't think violence will solve this issue. For every pirate you shoot, there are ten waiting to go out...
The Somalis are very proud, so they would take it the wrong way if you would follow down this path, it would increase the problem we are facing right now as you would radicalize the pirates even more.
At the moment, if ransom is paid or if there is a slight chance to get it they will not harm the crew too much, but if we begin shooting at everything moving offshore the Somali coats we will get more in trouble and more (westerners) life's will be lost.
Not to argue with your point... but, I think some people agree that paying ransoms is a pretty good incentive for them to continue. If no ransoms were being paid, and their risk was radically increased, would their pride really be enough to keep to keep them going?
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Old 16-01-2012, 23:01   #69
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey View Post
I think the answer is to deal with the reality as it is, not as folk may want it to be. Somalia is not a country - never has been and never will be.

Split off Somaliland (I hear moves in that direction are - at long last - on the table) - give them a coast guard capability to a) look after own coastline and b) extend that reach a bit.....the advantages that they have over the international navies is that they are not going anywhere (when they get bored) and the Pirates will know they won't be using kid gloves......

Splitting off Puntland would be me my ideal solution, but failing that divide the rump of Somalia down into Federal autonomous and regional semi-autonomous areas, broadly following tribal (Clan) loyalties.....all topped off by an intentionally weak national govt, that issues the stamps and makes all the right noises. Won't be a route to prosperity (nor even "peace") but would help contain the problems.

In the interim perfectly possible to train up a Somali regional Coastguard force including folks from the coastal regions (trained abroad - and possibly also initially based outside Somalia). Could even expand the CG to include a regiment (or 2?!) of Somali Marines, overseas training - including in other worldwide trouble spots.......apart from the added security provided to shipping, would also be a way of getting money into the local economy.....and using locals means you get a useful channel of intel - even if not of specifics, who is on the up and who is not is useful to know for "others" to use........only need one place in Somalia to drop off captured Pirates to deal with them under Somali law ......would also be cheaper than permanently basing naval forces in the area.
hei david,

well Somaliland defacto is a country by it's own. The TFG (Transitional Federal Goverment in Mogadishu) has no power whatsoever of that state. The only thing missing today is the recognition by the international community of Somaliland. But there is no political will of western countries to do so. They are much much better off then the rest of Somalia and indeed there is no (or almost no piracy, am not 100% sure) in Somaliland as the country and it's institutions are working to an acceptable standard and the ppl is following the laws.
If the international community would recognize Somaliland it would help to stabilize the region as the ppl in Puntland would want something similar, an autonomy in a federal state.
The Somalis are sick and tired of the situation but there is no political will in the country and more importantly outside the country to stabilize the situation. Ethiopia and Kenya are not very keen in a strong Muslim Somalia. They rather are ok with the situation now. Ethiopia would fear that a united Somalia would request the predominant Somali region in Ethiopia and may would face a war with them. So keep them down and all is fine.

To answer your post

to run a CG which will be effective in fighting piracy is only possible with massive international help, because there is no budget for that.
Just an example, a couple of years ago 80% of the medical care was provided by foreign humanitarian organizations.
The TFG needs to tackle much more urgent problems then the piracy, at the moment we have the biggest nutritional crisis in the region in southern Somalia since the famous 1984 Ethiopian famine.

We will have pirates as long as the ppl are starving to death in that part of the world.
Once the people is having a place they can actually live and are not struggling every day to survive the piracy will cease to exist by itself...
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Old 16-01-2012, 23:04   #70
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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Not to argue with your point... but, I think some people agree that paying ransoms is a pretty good incentive for them to continue. If no ransoms were being paid, and their risk was radically increased, would their pride really be enough to keep to keep them going?
of course the ransom is the problem!
and there is no excuse for it, but if we kill them willingly they will become more radical.

we would be in a downward spiral with no escape and only fill in more and more violence from both sides

the solution to the piracy is the well being of the Somali ppl as just posted
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Old 16-01-2012, 23:15   #71
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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of course the ransom is the problem!
and there is no excuse for it, but if we kill them willingly they will become more radical.

we would be in a downward spiral with no escape and only fill in more and more violence from both sides

the solution to the piracy is the well being of the Somali ppl as just posted
But it's not "the Somali people" that are pirates. It's the Somali pirates... And, Can they actually get more radical than they already are?

I get what your saying, but I think you're talking about several generations down the road....It's not unlike education in the US as an effort to prevent people from becoming drug dealers... The people that are currently drug dealers aren't just going to give up their jobs because their rent just got cheaper and cars became easier to purchase. And definitely not because someone shows up and tells them they are doing wrong...

there are starving countries all over the world that are not so emphatically radical... or are you saying that piracy is a country-wide problem and not just specific to a certain group, or type of person?

PS: I never said kill them willingly... Just increase their risk.
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Old 16-01-2012, 23:42   #72
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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But it's not "the Somali people" that are pirates. It's the Somali pirates... And, Can they actually get more radical than they already are?

I get what your saying, but I think you're talking about several generations down the road....It's not unlike education in the US as an effort to prevent people from becoming drug dealers... The people that are currently drug dealers aren't just going to give up their jobs because their rent just got cheaper and cars became easier to purchase. And definitely not because someone shows up and tells them they are doing wrong...

there are starving countries all over the world that are not so emphatically radical... or are you saying that piracy is a country-wide problem and not just specific to a certain group, or type of person?

PS: I never said kill them willingly... Just increase their risk.
hi callmecrazy,

well, for every one pirate there is a huge clan behind which is profiting from the piracy. but no, you are right it is not all of them that are pirates. it is still a minority.
But since my first visit to Somalia in early 2008 the situation actually got worse.
There is more and more murders in the bigger cities, Mogadishu for sure is the most dangerous place on earth this days.

and in my opinion, yes they can be more radical then they are now. The center of the piracy is central Somalia, which is relatively safe, compared to southern Somalia with the Al Shabab.
The pirates do operate country wide and recently there was a shift in "policy". They now started kidnapping ppl inland. We had the luck to fly out of our project just 24h before some UN ppl got kidnapped in the same town as I was working. They then have been sold to the Al Shabab.

Most of the ppl i know in Somalia are not supporting the pirates, but in the other hand if there is less and less access to the population due to insecurity (also generated by the pirates itself) then they have less and less chances of income. For example in southern Somalia there are only 3 international NGO's allowed to work. This is imposed by the Al Shabab, so that means less work and hence less income for the whole family.

As you mention it correctly, this will take at least 2 generations to overcome and only if we start right now with massive international help and support.

there are other starving countries, yes unfortunately, what i think makes Somalia special is the length of the conflict and how desperate the ppl there is plus the extreme complex clan issues and a century long history of revenge. today there are still ppl been killed because of happenings 100-200 years ago when one member of a clan was killing a member of a other clan.

there is so much to overcome that, in my humble opinion, without international mediation and help they will not overcome it soon.

p.s. sorry, i misquoted you on the issue of killing willingly, am sure you are not in favor of that. my apologies

p.p.s. increasing the risk for them in not paying ransom is almost like a death sentence for the crew and more likely the owner of the boat will not see it ever again. so 10 million of ransom is a "peanuts" for them against the possibility of loosing the ship with crew. it's just too complicated this whole issue
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Old 17-01-2012, 00:16   #73
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Re: Britain to sort out Somalia in 2012!

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p.p.s. increasing the risk for them in not paying ransom is almost like a death sentence for the crew and more likely the owner of the boat will not see it ever again. so 10 million of ransom is a "peanuts" for them against the possibility of loosing the ship with crew. it's just too complicated this whole issue
I meant to first take away their incentive (ransom) then increase their risk to obtain the incentive (not necessarily kill, but a higher potential of being caught,imprisoned,etc..). But I see you're point.

To your other points... I have no answer

It is indeed a sad situation, and you are right that an major campaign to educate both the somali's and the rest of the world, should be taking place, like, yesterday...as well as some type of economical campaign (which is beyond my plane of reference)
But, like you said, they're pretty hard-headed...so I don't see the current leader/follower groups being 'transformed' anytime soon...we're definitely talking generations here.

Swift and concise justice is OK in my opinion when it comes to gross negligence of innocent human life. (I know that becomes ironic very quicly, but it makes me feel better ) But that's just my opinion...

The important thing right now is, somebody needs to step up to the plate and regain control over the Gulf (for the sake of free passage), no matter what problems Somalia is having internally. They are not trying to fight a revolution, or protect their homes... they are committing crimes against humanity, for money. That stuff needs to stop before any type of rehabilitation/re-education effort can be pursued.
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Old 17-01-2012, 02:25   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by callmecrazy

I meant to first take away their incentive (ransom) then increase their risk to obtain the incentive (not necessarily kill, but a higher potential of being caught,imprisoned,etc..). But I see you're point.

To your other points... I have no answer

It is indeed a sad situation, and you are right that an major campaign to educate both the somali's and the rest of the world, should be taking place, like, yesterday...as well as some type of economical campaign (which is beyond my plane of reference)
But, like you said, they're pretty hard-headed...so I don't see the current leader/follower groups being 'transformed' anytime soon...we're definitely talking generations here.

Swift and concise justice is OK in my opinion when it comes to gross negligence of innocent human life. (I know that becomes ironic very quicly, but it makes me feel better ) But that's just my opinion...

The important thing right now is, somebody needs to step up to the plate and regain control over the Gulf (for the sake of free passage), no matter what problems Somalia is having internally. They are not trying to fight a revolution, or protect their homes... they are committing crimes against humanity, for money. That stuff needs to stop before any type of rehabilitation/re-education effort can be pursued.
You and others make the fundamental mistake that armed force can solve complex problems. It almost never succeeds. It may result in damping down the activities but they just spring up again once military attention switches elsewhere. Remember all that happens in the face of concerted western military activity is these guys throw away their AK 47 s and claim there are fishermen. What is " your" military doing to do , mow down seemingly innocent "fishermen".

It's always the case that, particularly in the US, but in all western countries that a defined " enemy" must be identified. The fact that these groupings are actually clan based and in effort involve whole societies seems to escape you. Simply killing an active pirate causes him to be replaced by another member of the clan.

Successful conflict resolution has shown that dealing with the underlying issues has to be tackled first. That reduces the incentive and pressure to enter illegal activities.

It's a sad thing that western states prepared to spends millions on naval activity but not spend it on the country itself.

Dave
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Old 17-01-2012, 03:03   #75
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Re: Britain to Sort out Somalia in 2012!

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You and others make the fundamental mistake that armed force can solve complex problems. It almost never succeeds. It may result in damping down the activities but they just spring up again once military attention switches elsewhere. Remember all that happens in the face of concerted western military activity is these guys throw away their AK 47 s and claim there are fishermen. What is " your" military doing to do , mow down seemingly innocent "fishermen".

It's always the case that, particularly in the US, but in all western countries that a defined " enemy" must be identified. The fact that these groupings are actually clan based and in effort involve whole societies seems to escape you. Simply killing an active pirate causes him to be replaced by another member of the clan.

Successful conflict resolution has shown that dealing with the underlying issues has to be tackled first. That reduces the incentive and pressure to enter illegal activities.

It's a sad thing that western states prepared to spends millions on naval activity but not spend it on the country itself.

Dave
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