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Old 24-03-2015, 11:13   #1
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Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Lots of debate going on as to if the oceans are actually increasing in height. Several islands seem to be only inches from disaster. Perhaps they are under risk from another effect of Global Warming- increasing numbers of storms and the seas that accompany them. This is an interesting article that tries to be even handed about the subject:
Are Category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in number? | Weather Underground
I think that even a mild increase in the number of storms may lead to increased erosion and cover these little islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans before their time....
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:25   #2
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

the paper makes interesting reading. its highlights the current issues around climate change, that the models dont conclusively show specific change and the near recent data requires considerable analysis to determine exactly what weather effects are being influence by climate change.
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:38   #3
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pirate Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Buga all to do with global warming.. its Earth Tilt..
Slopped extra water into the Pacific..
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:43   #4
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Who's more violent . Where!?! Just hold on while I grab my gun .

OK, I probably shouldn't even joke about this stuff around here. You've already doomed this discussion by daring to mention "global warming." I can hear the stampede of naysayers already heading this way.

However, as someone who is just at the start of his world meanderings, I'm quite interested in how climate change is affecting traditional weather and seasonal knowledge that sailors use. For example, according to recent research there has apparently been, "An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s." According to the paper Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming, which is summarized in more laymans terms here:
"New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s.

The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001."

This must be having a significant impact on cruisers taking the downwind ride from Panama across the Pacific. I've heard some of our more senior members make comment about higher trade wind speeds.
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:45   #5
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

People (Al Gore, for one) tried to make the case that Hurricane Katrina was the result of global warming. Unfortunately, that ignored the fact that the Spanish recorded a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico about 300 years before Katrina, that sounded almost exactly like it in size, intensity, and surge, from the detailed reports of the Inspector they sent from Spain to see why no one was reporting in from their colonies along the Mississippi and Alabama gulf coasts. It also matches up with cross sections of trees that old for salt water intrusion to the same latitudes as in Katrina.

There may be some made made contribution, but it appears pretty obvious that the climate and weather changes in cycles, always has, and always will, and the cycles only seem extreme, one way or the other, because of the small sample we see in our short (relatively speaking) lives.

I am pretty sure that where I sail,we get a lot more wind in July and August these days than we did back in the 80's when I started sailing. I remember not really sailing much in July and August due to lack of wind. Now, I am frequently having to reef in July and August in the same area.
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:47   #6
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

I haven't noticed any real difference in my area over the last 8 years. That's really all I'm qualified to say and it is only an opinion.
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:56   #7
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sailorboy1 View Post
I haven't noticed any real difference in my area over the last 8 years. That's really all I'm qualified to say and it is only an opinion.


of course , when the water floods in your door, it will be somewhat too late to build an informed opinion
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:57   #8
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Originally Posted by boatman61 View Post
Buga all to do with global warming.. its Earth Tilt..
Slopped extra water into the Pacific..
No worries, once the Chinese finish the Nicaragua canal it'll even out again.
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Old 24-03-2015, 11:59   #9
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Originally Posted by Group9 View Post
People (Al Gore, for one) tried to make the case that Hurricane Katrina was the result of global warming. Unfortunately, that ignored the fact that the Spanish recorded a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico about 300 years before Katrina, that sounded almost exactly like it in size, intensity, and surge, from the detailed reports of the Inspector they sent from Spain to see why no one was reporting in from their colonies along the Mississippi and Alabama gulf coasts. It also matches up with cross sections of trees that old for salt water intrusion to the same latitudes as in Katrina.

There may be some made made contribution, but it appears pretty obvious that the climate and weather changes in cycles, always has, and always will, and the cycles only seem extreme, one way or the other, because of the small sample we see in our short (relatively speaking) lives.

I am pretty sure that where I sail,we get a lot more wind in July and August these days than we did back in the 80's when I started sailing. I remember not really sailing much in July and August due to lack of wind. Now, I am frequently having to reef in July and August in the same area.
to quote AL Gore, in any capacity, is to demean the whole subject. Mr Gore is merely a bad spokesman for a particular argument and in fact one he has done more damage to.

Scientists that study the data and build models in general have agreed that climate change is occurring, as you say , there is a man made component. whats not agreed is the scale of the change or the subsequent consequences. It could be relatively benign , or even within our ability to easily cope, or it could be more catistropic depending on who you listen to.
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Old 24-03-2015, 12:01   #10
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Average wave heights in general worldwide have been climbing which of course means winds in general have been increasing. More heat differential = more wind. On a related note the changing temperature differential between the poles and equator influences the jet stream and is thought to be contributing to the increased meandering seen in past years. At least that is one hypothesis...
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Old 24-03-2015, 12:02   #11
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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of course , when the water floods in your door, it will be somewhat too late to build an informed opinion
Was there suppose to be an emotion to indicate a joke? I gave my personal experience for my area, that's an informed opinion.

BTW - I'm a lot smarter than to own a home in a flood plain. Those that do shouldn't really complain when the flood happens.
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Old 24-03-2015, 12:07   #12
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Was there suppose to be an emotion to indicate a joke? I gave my personal experience for my area, that's an informed opinion.

BTW - I'm a lot smarter than to own a home in a flood plain. Those that do shouldn't really complain when the flood happens.
sorry missed the emoticon
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Old 24-03-2015, 12:16   #13
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

By the way that will mean that average rogue wave height will also be increasing. I am also surprised to hear so much on the climate change denial side here. Forget hurricanes for now, look at the long term change in ocean currents and sea temps. Now really, yes there are natural fluctuations, but not in only 100 years.
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Old 24-03-2015, 12:20   #14
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Originally Posted by s/v Beth View Post
Lots of debate going on as to if the oceans are actually increasing in height. Several islands seem to be only inches from disaster. Perhaps they are under risk from another effect of Global Warming- increasing numbers of storms and the seas that accompany them. This is an interesting article that tries to be even handed about the subject:
Are Category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in number? | Weather Underground
I think that even a mild increase in the number of storms may lead to increased erosion and cover these little islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans before their time....
Seems this reference is mainly to the World Meteorological Organization's 2006 stance on Hurricanes. However, it looks like they reaffirmed this position in 2012. The link between tropical cyclone activity and global warming is inconclusive. Although if you read the current report it says it's basically a lack of long-term quality data that is causing the uncertainty.

Here's a summary statement: "The scientific community is currently divided between some who believe that anthropogenic climate change has already had a detectable effect on tropical cyclone activity, and others who view the observed changes in cyclone intensity, frequency and paths as indistinguishable from natural variability. UNESCAP/WMO and IPCC's SREX reflect the view that there is insufficient data to take a definitive position."

Along these same lines, I came across this recent research which mines prehistoric hurricane data for the Florida coast. Appears they've been able to tease out the number of storm surge events going back thousands of years. Here they conclude the recorded history (~160 years) underestimates the frequency of major hurricane events hitting Florida.

Record of thousands of years: Mega-storm surge in Florida
"Based on historical records, northwestern Florida gets hit by a hurricane packing a five-meter (16-foot) storm surge every 400 years. Incorporating long-term paleohurricane records, the authors find that the frequency of such a storm is actually closer to every 40 years."

IOW, major wallops are a lot more common than is currently predicted based on our 160 years of recorded history. Better sell that Florida beach front property now .
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Old 24-03-2015, 13:56   #15
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Forget hurricanes for now, look at the long term change in ocean currents and sea temps. Now really, yes there are natural fluctuations, but not in only 100 years.
Other than the ones listed at:

https://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/cli...uctuations.php

as a minimum
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