Are the Seas getting more Violent?

[Canibul]

I don't see any difference between people running around worried about the climate warming and chickens running around worried about the sky falling.

The climate is changing. The climate has always BEEN changing. The climate will be in a state of change forever. The only difference is that we've gotten better at measuring it, and some of us have decided we can take advantage of that fact.

And that's the sum total of it. Things change. Adapt or become obsolete. Nothing has changed about this for billions of years.

[Invictus69]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

If you use the age of the earth to correspond to one day, 24 hours. Humans have existed for the last 2 sec. of that 24 hour period, modern record keeping humans for considerably less than 1 sec.
Is that less than 1 sec of time really enough to be drawing conclusions?

Completely agree. I would even add that the lifetime of the current politicians (as main promoters of 'global warming' which evolved into 'climate change' since the 'warming' part didn't work out obviously) is probably less than a nano-second of that which makes is even more fundamentally irrelevant.

Where I come from, the climate changes constantly, we have snow in certain months and go to the beach in others, and so it goes.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Don C L

I understand that. And I too enjoy leaving it all at the dock and getting away. But I'd challenge us all not to give up trying to save the planet; don't give up speaking up for what is right. This is the only planet our kids will have, and though the task seems impossible in the face of what you mentioned, that is not necessarily a good reason to give up, is it? Sure, doing more on a personal level is important, but it is not enough. I remember years ago in a class taught by Garret Hardin, a very well-known ecologist we spent 3 months going over basically how trends, research and theories pointed to no hope for the future of humankind. The last day of class a student asked him if he cried at night. His response was surprising, he was optimistic as long as people stayed active and well-informed... and he added, what choice do we have? My take is that we should do our part, and a little more, locally, right where you are, and our children will benefit. It's not for us, it is for them we do these things.

(RAMBLE ALERT -- probably best to ignore )

I didn't respond to your thoughtful comments right away Don b/c, well, I don't have a great response. You touch on a core conundrum which baffles me regarding our society's approach to this self-inflicted, slow-motion disaster. On the surface, we seem to be sacrificing our children's future just so we can continue to live way beyond our environmental means. It seems absurdly and astoundingly greedy -- yet I don't know any parent who wouldn't throw themselves on a grenade to save their kids.

Behavioural research suggests our species excels in dealing with short-term, focused dangers, but we have not evolved to deal well with long-term, "out of sight" issues. Yet clearly we have the capacity to peer into the future and extrapolate how our actions today will impact our children, and our children's children.

I've come to the conclusion that the human species is behaving exactly as any successful species does. It dominates its eco-system until it hits hard environmental barriers, at which point it comes into equilibrium. In less complex eco-systems it is all too common to see environmental over-shoots of resource use, which usually results in catastrophic population corrections. This is where I believe the human species is at.

I believe we as a species have the capacity to choose a different path, and I once thought we would, but all action and evidence over the last 30 years of my personal observation is that we keep behaving just like all other animals on this planet. The difference here is that we can see that we're racing towards the edge of the cliff, but instead of stopping we keep turning to our left and to our right, and saying "I'll stop if you stop..." so no one stops.

Of course, we will stop once we have no choice. The planet doesn't care. Humans will be brought into balance, and due to our dominance on this planet, the correction will be dramatic. But we'll adapt and (probably) survive. The correction will be ugly, mostly from a social standpoint.

I realize you will view my perspective as being pessimistic. I believe it is being realistic based on the evidence in front of us. I would rather be wrong, but I can't choose to believe something just b/c it would be nicer.

But this gets me back to your challenge about not giving up, or giving in to despair, or descending into narcissism. I don't believe resistance is ever futile. I think we all should be responsibility for how we live, but I agree with you that the issues facing us are bigger than the individual. They are systemic challenges which require systemic changes. This is where we seem to become fossilized and unable to act. Call it lack of political will, call it the victory of short-term special interests, call it apathy... whatever the reasons, we now seem locked into a death race of over-consumption and over-population.

After much personal reflection on this issue I've come to the conclusion that I can't change the world, but I can change me. I can stop being part of the problem, but I can only do this my distancing myself from my rich western world (distancing ... not exiting. I'm not that strong ). A modest sailboat is one way I can do this. There are other options as well. I've settled on this one -- for now.

[IdoraKeeper]

I think Newt is postulating larger waves and more wind as a subconscious justification for getting a bigger boat. That alone should drive up the price of 60 footers...just sayin.

[Red Sky]

Originally Posted by sneuman

I'm sorry, I went to school in the 70s, too, and I never heard such a thing even from my "hippie teachers." In fact, that you'd describe your teachers that way makes me doubt your claim.

Doubt it all you like, it's just another mark on the sneuman is full of B.S. checklist. Both of my 4th and 5th grade home-room teachers were sand candle/tie-dyed t-shirt making hippies. They also tried to teach us that the evil right would soon try to control everything in your life. Funny how that turned into today's P.C. world.

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by Canibul

I don't see any difference between people running around worried about the climate warming and chickens running around worried about the sky falling.

The climate is changing. The climate has always BEEN changing. The climate will be in a state of change forever. The only difference is that we've gotten better at measuring it, and some of us have decided we can take advantage of that fact.

And that's the sum total of it. Things change. Adapt or become obsolete. Nothing has changed about this for billions of years.

I ask you, and everyone, to take the time to watch the video posted earlier. It is a statistical evaluation, it has to be. Yes climate is always changing, but not in the way we are seeing and not this fast. To lose 40% of arctic sea ice in a few decades is unknown in the fossil record. She points out you'd have to go back 800,000 years to a time that had so little ice. And the domino effect of the ice loss is demonstrably having an effect on the jet stream which in turn is having a demonstrable effect now with our weather patterns that get "stuck" in hot or cold for long periods of time.

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by Red Sky

Doubt it all you like, it's just another mark on the sneuman is full of B.S. checklist. Both of my 4th and 5th grade home-room teachers were sand candle/tie-dyed t-shirt making hippies. They also tried to teach us that the evil right would soon try to control everything in your life. Funny how that turned into today's P.C. world.

I am the same age. I made sand candles and tie-dyed shirts. I wasn't a hippie.

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by TanzerTom

Many scientists find what they are paid to find. Is the climate changing? Is water wet? The man made warmer horse **** is targeted at the gullible, the ignorant, and the just plain stupid. Ask a believer what percent of all that influences climate is human? They have NO clue because that number is infinitesimal.

Actually they do have lots of clues. And even if your claim that the human influence is infinitesimal were true, even small things can have big influences when there is a feed-back loop. A huge boulder teetering on a mountain top may need only an infinitesimal nudge to send it on its way to enormous consequences. If you see the video she talks about how feed-back loops helped to accelerate the loss of sea ice in the arctic, which has in turn has had a demonstrable effect on the jet stream. I really don't think she WANTED to find these results, no matter who paid for it.

[Red Sky]

Originally Posted by Don C L

I am the same age. I made sand candles and tie-dyed shirts. I wasn't a hippie.

I made them also and I'm not a hippie either, but the teachers sure were.

[s/v Beth]

Originally Posted by IdoraKeeper

I think Newt is postulating larger waves and more wind as a subconscious justification for getting a bigger boat. That alone should drive up the price of 60 footers...just sayin.

Why did I get a Valiant?? Oh yeah, it was global climate change. Have to be prepared ya know..just being safe.

BTW- ostracizing someone because their views is not going to help. Until they make a dependable shuttle out of here and a persistent colony elsewhere, we are all in this together.

[hpeer]

@ Mike OReily,

I've come to the pitiful conclusion that you can't help anyone if yu can't help yourself. And that ending my particular gene line is not in my best interest.

Perhaps this is self serving and a rationalization, I don't know. But it is the best I can come up with at the moment.

A major conundrum i have is I'm convienced of population is the biggest problem, but I can't come up with a good reason to give anyone (who would listen) to not procreate.

a motto I have adapted is "you can't change what you can't touch." I try to live lightly, within the constrains of my culture, even though those efforts are woefully inadequate.

I do disagree that humanity, as a group, has the capacity to look into the future. I think there is far more evidence that we react with short term emotional responses that reinforce our desires. Just glance through this thread for evidence.

I find there are no good answers.

Just my 2¢.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by hpeer

A major conundrum i have is I'm convienced of population is the biggest problem, but I can't come up with a good reason to give anyone (who would listen) to not procreate.
...
I do disagree that humanity, as a group, has the capacity to look into the future. I think there is far more evidence that we react with short term emotional responses that reinforce our desires. Just glance through this thread for evidence.

I agree on both these counts Hpeer. As a species we don't show much capacity for long-term planning, especially when that comes with short-term pain. But some humans do. Perhaps it's a evolutionary development that is just starting to take hold in the population. Not fast enough, I fear...

As for limiting procreation, it is a difficult problem. Reproduction is in our genes. That said, some people (myself included) have decided to allow our genes to go extinct. So perhaps there is hope. It's also encouraging to see that the rate of population increase in the developing world is rapidly slowing. So in some ways, that part of the equation has the potential to improve.

Sadly our part, and by that I mean the intensity of energy/resource use that developed nations consume per-capita, continues to grow. The only thing that seems to slow this number is when we go through economic recession.

Originally Posted by hpeer

I find there are no good answers.

Which is why I'm going sailing

[zeehag]

as our only constant is change and all is changing, it seems we are on as normal as ever path to having flood waters world wide .yaaayyy.. and a different north pole--perhaps baahhstaahhnn.....or rhode island.. or buffalo, all same difference...
celebrate the coming possibility of being able to sail across florida witthout having to seek out a special creek or river channel... dont bump bottom on any miami high rises..lol
adapt or be eaten still applies yet we try to protect our kids from this fact--why. it is time to regress to our survivalist tactics.
prey or predator.
choose or die.
wrong choice could well be death.
fins and gills or feet n lungs??
we have a long time to figger this ut, i think those who do adapt will surive just fine, as our bodies do this adaptation to environment thing over generations and time.

personally, i am looking forward to higher water levels.
i sail a deep keeled boat. wanna sail across fla without need for okeechobee....over the bridges, thankyou... oops look out for the old high voltage lines and high rises....

but this will not happen in my lifetime nor yours nor your childrens' lifetimes.
just clean up after yourselves. "your momma doesnt work here" is always appropriate.
remember, the ONLY thing that does not change is change, which is always changing.
once more folks figger that out mebbe folks can begin to adapt to reality.
common sense aint so common despite many who believe erroneously that they possess it

chicken little has taken over the world.. rodlmffao. have fun.


oh yeah i fergot.... i have a formosa-- i am ready. bring it on.... thankyou.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by zeehag

as our only constant is change and all is changing, it seems we are on as normal as ever path to having flood waters world wide .yaaayyy.. and a different north pole--perhaps baahhstaahhnn.....or rhode island.. or buffalo, all same difference...
celebrate the coming possibility of being able to sail across florida witthout having to seek out a special creek or river channel... dont bump bottom on any miami high rises..lol
adapt or be eaten still applies yet we try to protect our kids from this fact--why. it is time to regress to our survivalist tactics.
prey or predator.
choose or die.
wrong choice could well be death.
fins and gills or feet n lungs??
we have a long time to figger this ut, i think those who do adapt will surive just fine, as our bodies do this adaptation to environment thing over generations and time.

personally, i am looking forward to higher water levels.
i sail a deep keeled boat. wanna sail across fla without need for okeechobee....over the bridges, thankyou... oops look out for the old high voltage lines and high rises....

but this will not happen in my lifetime nor yours nor your childrens' lifetimes.
just clean up after yourselves. "your momma doesnt work here" is always appropriate.
remember, the ONLY thing that does not change is change, which is always changing.
once more folks figger that out mebbe folks can begin to adapt to reality.
common sense aint so common despite many who believe erroneously that they possess it

chicken little has taken over the world.. rodlmffao. have fun.


oh yeah i fergot.... i have a formosa-- i am ready. bring it on.... thankyou.

Not my problem. Not my worry. Seems like a healthy attitude to me!

[JPA Cate]

Ann posting:

Way back in the beginning of this thread, someone wrote in that the SE trades in the South Pacific were --on average-- stronger more often than they used to be. We have not noticed this in our areas of the SP, that is to say the South Pacific "Eddy" ranging from the Solomons, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and up and down the Australian East Coast.

This is not to dispute that post, because we tend to avoid moving during periods of enhanched trades (30-35 knots) because the vigorous motion interferes with sleeping, and so, we may not have noticed, being tucked up somewhere protected...

This summer season has had more frequent strong northerlies, though, than I remember from before. Then again, memory is fallible, one often hears "this is the hottest summer", and so forth. Four years ago, a friend slipped on the ice in Seattle and broke her wrist; this year was a lot warmer there. Weather is always changing, and people are always coping with it and complaining about it.

In terms of being kind to the planet, it's an elegant goal. However, as long as sailboats are made of plastics and metals, and use diesel engines, we, too, are consumers of stuff that comes from mines, etc. If we are only selfish, opportunistic omnivores, and make little effort towards active compassion, we will do more harm. I would say that Mike is trying to live in a way that shows compassion for the earth and its inhabitants.

The decision to be a "lifestyle cruiser" is one way of making one's total footprint smaller.

Ann