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Old 25-03-2015, 10:55   #61
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Originally Posted by Goosebumps View Post
two points: 1. the 15th century saw ice age where even south Europe open water and rivers were frozen over, what is so exteeme about today's climate
2. has anyone else on CF suffered negative reactions to them yacht cruising because it now is very unsafe to go sailing, passage making liveaboard
I ended up sailing through a typhoon in the South China Sea after the official end of the season (in 2005). Typhoons can occur at other times of year, of course, so there's no reason to say that it's climate change. Then again, it could be.
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Old 25-03-2015, 10:56   #62
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

All you have to do is say, "GLOBAL WARMING" and you will get lots of replies. Obama says it is the number one problem facing americans. Ridiculous. Its food and obesity. Fat people are dying by the droves from the crap they eat. Once in a while we have a bad storm and a few people die and some property is wrecked. We are all going to die from our ruined food supply, then, if there is global warming, it will sort itself out...once humans are the heck out of the way. Anyone who has been on the ocean for a while is more concerned that the fish are gone, the reefs are dying, than a few waves. We have poisoned the food supply, and we plug too much stuff into the grid. Its easy to solve...we need fewer people. We can start by castrating felons. The average felon in the USA is 30 years old, has 3.7 children by 3.7 women, has never been married. Of course, the state has to borrow money to support them.
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Old 25-03-2015, 11:15   #63
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Buga all to do with global warming.. its Earth Tilt..
Slopped extra water into the Pacific
Nah, population increase weighing the islands down same as extra crew or passengers does on a boat. Distribute condoms and the problems solved.
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Old 25-03-2015, 11:31   #64
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Poole Harbour iced over in the undisturbed area's back in the early 90's.. thats not a small bay.. and 80%+ salt water..
England seems pretty normal to me over the 4x12yr cycles I've known it..
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Old 25-03-2015, 11:32   #65
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Only two this year, (so far, but we are getting close to the end of the season.) although one was a category 5.
I'm a bit suspicious about that category 5, it went from 2 or 3 in a very short time and did not look that big on the sat images, although the Shoalwater Bay area has a lot of shallow water which might provide a hot spot.
As one who has been sailing the Australian coast since 2001 and listens to the coastal weather forecasts religiously I have become very skeptical about the BOM reports in the last few years. When I hear 10-15 on the 0730 report before making my passage for the day I am generally pretty sure I am going to motor all day over glassy seas. I suspect it has something to do with the coronial inquiry into the disastrous Sydney-Hobart yacht race a few years ago.
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Old 25-03-2015, 11:51   #66
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Albert Einstein's theory of special relativity was very controversial when it was published in 1905. It wasn't until 1920 that it was finally accepted.
Very true and Louis Pasteur was ridiculed mercilessly. But they conducted experiments that were verifiable to support their conclusions. Yes as soon as I wrote that I knew that was a dumb thing on the face of it. I don't want to keep flogging a dead horse and sorry again Newt, but climate science deals in probabilities not absolutes. By the time we finally can get to an absolute it will likely be too late.
Now, as far as violent seas, records of average wave heights and wind speeds and such are out there, and it seems most (not all) are showing an upward trend, which makes sense given average temp increases. Here is just one site that might help although there may be some who don't trust government statistics,
GlobalChange.gov
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Old 25-03-2015, 11:56   #67
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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People (Al Gore, for one) tried to make the case that Hurricane Katrina was the result of global warming. Unfortunately, that ignored the fact that the Spanish recorded a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico about 300 years before Katrina, that sounded almost exactly like it in size, intensity, and surge, from the detailed reports of the Inspector they sent from Spain to see why no one was reporting in from their colonies along the Mississippi and Alabama gulf coasts. It also matches up with cross sections of trees that old for salt water intrusion to the same latitudes as in Katrina.

There may be some made made contribution, but it appears pretty obvious that the climate and weather changes in cycles, always has, and always will, and the cycles only seem extreme, one way or the other, because of the small sample we see in our short (relatively speaking) lives.

I am pretty sure that where I sail,we get a lot more wind in July and August these days than we did back in the 80's when I started sailing. I remember not really sailing much in July and August due to lack of wind. Now, I am frequently having to reef in July and August in the same area.
Same thing on the inland lakes..Sailing used to be a autumn sport around here ,I sail during the summer now..
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Old 25-03-2015, 13:04   #68
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Well, it would be a mistake to think only of the destructive forces of storms. Anybody who grew up on the shore will tell you the sea takes some gives some.

I have not seen any reasonably put together body of data that would show there are more storms, or more violent storms, compared to what there was in in the past. Especially that we did not have comparable monitoring and measurement techniques and equipment until most recently. So we actually do not know how rough or sweet the past was.

We have sailed to a number of small island destinations around the world and we have never seen any first hand proof of ongoing flooding of small islands. We do believe this may be the case with some islands but then again this is about to be expected given the vastness of the oceans and the numbers of islands.

So my take is that we do not know. And that most of what we read in the media is just media bee es.

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Old 25-03-2015, 13:05   #69
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Ah, Ted Cruz. With a fact-checking record that rivals Sarah Palin's for being consistently wrong:
Ted Cruz says satellite data show the globe isn’t warming. This satellite scientist feels otherwise - The Washington Post
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Old 25-03-2015, 13:42   #70
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Ah, Ted Cruz. With a fact-checking record that rivals Sarah Palin's for being consistently wrong:
Ted Cruz says satellite data show the globe isn’t warming. This satellite scientist feels otherwise - The Washington Post
It is a very good article. I hope everyone takes a minute to read it. Here is another website that may be of interest, it sure was to me! It's on rogue waves.

http://www.technologyreview.com/arti...g-rogue-waves/
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Old 25-03-2015, 13:43   #71
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Good discussion! I'm a fairly novice cruiser (and firsttime poster here) with a fairly significant professional experience on these topics. My perspective is not conventional, for I conclude that climate is closer to (functions more as) a physiology than as the chemical thermostat that most climate scientists (e.g. IPCC) presume. A simple essay that places these topics into an intuitive context may be found here: Katrina, Wilma and Me: Learning to Live with Climate Surprises? | Grimm | Geoscience Canada
The issue is not global warming, nor even climate changing, for climate is dynamical and perpetually changing. At issue is the conclusion that the pattern of change is itself changing, perhaps, even very likely, transformative changing as contrasted with the transitional changing we agricultural-industrial humans have grown accustomed over the last 10000 years. The implication, me thinks: we need to learn to expect (more and bigger) surprises. Three word hypothesis about the coming several years: accelerated hysteresis changing.
Very thoughtful post by a first timer.
You know, I am not worried about global change. I think it is happening, but I cannot stop what is going on now.
What I am going to do is become even more conscious of what I use, and what I throw out. Eventually I hope to just end up on my boat with little or no carbon emissions, at anchor, and using my solar oven. No or little packaged food, and wearing out anything that may have to go in the dump.
It looks like to me we are going to have to rely more on what is happening now and less on pilot charts. Interesting take. The only constant we can be sure of is change. Seems like I have heard that before.
Bagged my own fresh veges today in reusable everything. Wasn't that hard.
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Old 25-03-2015, 14:28   #72
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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I have traveled quite abit through out the North and Central Pacific Rim and with my own eyes I have seen islands that have lost coast line and had salt water that inundated gardens...This is a true occurrence with sea water levels rising...
But did the sea rise, or did the land subside? A lot of the Pacific rim is volcanic, on the edge of the big tectonic plates.

The land moves up and down as well as sideways. For instance, at Port Resolution, on Tanna island, you find recent coral 20 metres above sea level. And apparently Port Resolution itself is much shallower than when James Cook surveyed it 200 years ago.
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Old 25-03-2015, 14:33   #73
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Old 25-03-2015, 15:00   #74
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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I'm a bit suspicious about that category 5, it went from 2 or 3 in a very short time and did not look that big on the sat images, although the Shoalwater Bay area has a lot of shallow water which might provide a hot spot.
As one who has been sailing the Australian coast since 2001 and listens to the coastal weather forecasts religiously I have become very skeptical about the BOM reports in the last few years. When I hear 10-15 on the 0730 report before making my passage for the day I am generally pretty sure I am going to motor all day over glassy seas. I suspect it has something to do with the coronial inquiry into the disastrous Sydney-Hobart yacht race a few years ago.
Yeah, IMO the BOM forecasts are getting pretty close to being a waste of time. Every day I write them down, and always try to sail on a favourable forecast - and almost every time I wonder why I bothered.

These days I almost consider the forecasts as a guide to what WON'T be happening.
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Old 25-03-2015, 15:05   #75
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Originally Posted by TrinitySeas View Post
The issue is not global warming, nor even climate changing, for climate is dynamical and perpetually changing. At issue is the conclusion that the pattern of change is itself changing, perhaps, even very likely, transformative changing as contrasted with the transitional changing we agricultural-industrial humans have grown accustomed over the last 10000 years. The implication, me thinks: we need to learn to expect (more and bigger) surprises. Three word hypothesis about the coming several years: accelerated hysteresis changing.
Agreed. Which is what makes this keenly relevant for cruisers who venture over the horizon. Climate is dynamic, and always changing. Climate science is now saying (has been saying for decades) the patterns of change are now shifting. Whether it is due to anthropogenic causes (which I agree, it likely is), or some other "natural" effect is largely irrelevant. The foundations of our climate are shifting, and therefore leaving us in a less stable and less predictable planet to live on.

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Originally Posted by s/v Beth View Post
Very thoughtful post by a first timer.
You know, I am not worried about global change. I think it is happening, but I cannot stop what is going on now.
What I am going to do is become even more conscious of what I use, and what I throw out. Eventually I hope to just end up on my boat with little or no carbon emissions, at anchor, and using my solar oven. No or little packaged food, and wearing out anything that may have to go in the dump.
It looks like to me we are going to have to rely more on what is happening now and less on pilot charts. Interesting take. The only constant we can be sure of is change. Seems like I have heard that before.
Bagged my own fresh veges today in reusable everything. Wasn't that hard.
As part of getting older I've given up any notion of trying to save the world. That was me in my younger days. Today, going cruising in a modest sailboat is very much my attempt to stop contributing as much to the social, economic, AND environmental problems facing my favourite little blue planet. The high-resource culture of the developed world, coupled with over-population of the rest, is pushing our planet's systems into new and unstable arrangements. I can't change this, but I can change my personal contribution. I can stop being part of the problem. Cruising is a way I can do this -- or at least get closer to this ideal.
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