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Old 24-03-2015, 13:58   #16
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

And this article is 5 years old!

Maximum height of extreme waves up dramatically in Pacific Northwest | News & Research Communications | Oregon State University

Increased wave heights, not sea level rise, is what will cause more flooding in the near term.
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Old 24-03-2015, 14:15   #17
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Interesting reading Don, and one that hits home as this is where I sail. We had close to 50 foot swells this winter. Since we are in a subduction zone, an earthquake could easily send us under water, or at least at our door in high tide. I would hate to loose most of Vancouver Island, even if it is Canadian.
Back to topic- I have only been here 8 years, and the winds seem to have shifted in that time...Old timers are saying the same- more southerlies during the summer, and more violent southerlies during the winter.
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Old 24-03-2015, 14:20   #18
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Interesting that a lot of the deniers here probably consult Jimmy Cornell's guides -- guides that have had to be revised and updated due to changing seasonal weather patterns, something Jimmy clearly believes is due to climate change.
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Old 24-03-2015, 14:29   #19
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Other than the ones listed at:

https://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/cli...uctuations.php

as a minimum
So, as I read the article it seems that at least one of the natural oscillations is being affected over the long term. It is not that there are natural oscillations, it is how those natural oscillations are changing that needs to be studied. For example (from the article):

"Over the longer term the [South Pacific Convergence] zone has shown a striking eastward displacement since 1977, compared with the period 1948–76, again reflecting the more prevalent occurrences of El Niño events during the later period."

Looking at trends over the last 100 years, and then extrapolating, is what has climate scientists concerned. The probability that the changes we see are not part of the usual natural patterns is what is debated, of course, but to many the trends are too steep to suggest that they are totally out of the increased CO2 influence.
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Old 24-03-2015, 14:34   #20
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Lets not get this into a deniers vs believers cat fight. I am one in particular who has not believed all the hype, yet I try to make my carbon foot print tiny because I just believe it is the right thing to do. I have a solar house, spend much of my time figuring out how not to use utilities and make trash.
Instead, I want to hear how climate change has affected us. (sailors)
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Old 24-03-2015, 14:53   #21
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don C L View Post
So, as I read the article it seems that at least one of the natural oscillations is being affected over the long term. It is not that there are natural oscillations, it is how those natural oscillations are changing that needs to be studied. For example (from the article):

"Over the longer term the [South Pacific Convergence] zone has shown a striking eastward displacement since 1977, compared with the period 1948–76, again reflecting the more prevalent occurrences of El Niño events during the later period."

Looking at trends over the last 100 years, and then extrapolating, is what has climate scientists concerned. The probability that the changes we see are not part of the usual natural patterns is what is debated, of course, but to many the trends are too steep to suggest that they are totally out of the increased CO2 influence.
The problem is that many of these are multi-decadal. Extrapolating over even 100 years for a sixty year cycle can lead to gross mis-intrepretations of reality.

How does the SPC trend in your two quoted 30 year periods compare to the 30 year period prior to 1948?

i.e. the last time that temperatures increase at the same rate as they did for the 30 odd years after 1977? Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
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Old 24-03-2015, 15:15   #22
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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The problem is that many of these are multi-decadal. Extrapolating over even 100 years for a sixty year cycle can lead to gross mis-intrepretations of reality.

How does the SPC trend in your two quoted 30 year periods compare to the 30 year period prior to 1948?

i.e. the last time that temperatures increase at the same rate as they did for the 30 odd years after 1977? Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
I am not sure what that graph was supposed to show, but its TREND was upward, and extrapolations are done from now into the future from a trend. All climate data will show ups and downs, oscillations, and it's true we do not have enough historical data to satisfy everyone, but, again, it is the trends that are concerning. And that graphs showing CO2, average temps, glacial retreat, etc. all correlate, statistically, pretty well is relevant. In science probability shows up a lot in developing theories, but some see the fact that science cannot absolutely conclude something is a sign of its unreliability. But we all, in our daily lives, at every moment, make decisions based on probabilities, or judgement calls. Why should global warming be any different? If there is a high probability that man-made CO2 is to blame (and I trust the data and the math) then let's not waste any more time and start doing the right thing. That is not necessarily hype or alarmist, it is pragmatic and sensible.
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Old 24-03-2015, 15:28   #23
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

For the past few years, the BOM has predicted a higher than average number of cyclones will cross the Queensland coast. For the past few years then number has actually been lower than average. The average they stated was 5 per year.


Only two this year, (so far, but we are getting close to the end of the season.) although one was a category 5.


Obviously probability dictates we WILL in future get some years where there are more than 5.
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Old 24-03-2015, 15:49   #24
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Instead, I want to hear how climate change has affected us. (sailors)
Well my boat is suppose to go in the water on April 7, but there still is at least 2 feet of snow laying about.
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Old 24-03-2015, 15:49   #25
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Newt, to get back to your original question, what do we sailors see, I have been more concerned about changes in currents and the effects on sea life. For example here in southern Cal a Wahoo, Opah and Hammerheads last summer... very strange... that is a strong northward plume of tropical water...

California Angler's Rare Catch Could Be a First

Strange Fish Catches off San Diego Signal Big El Niño

Opah Caught in Threes on Charter Boat

Hammerhead shark sightings off Southern California; more evidence of developing El Niño? - Pete Thomas Outdoors

Abalone: History and Future

And that last one, the decimation of abalone in southern Cal, I have witnessed myself over the last 40 years. It is heartbreaking. Now, if there were only one occurrence then we could dismiss these things as outliers, but it is the increase of these kinds of evidence, including "violent" storms, we should take note of. As cruisers, though our observations are anecdotal, they can be crucial. Look at the recent disease spreading through the sea stars on the west coast. Study of that began with alarm from casual observers.
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Old 24-03-2015, 15:55   #26
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Why I am a Climate Change Skeptic | Heartlander Magazine
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Old 24-03-2015, 16:00   #27
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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Heartland Institute:
Leak exposes how Heartland Institute works to undermine climate science | Environment | The Guardian
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Old 24-03-2015, 16:07   #28
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

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If Dr. Moore has a PhD. in ANY branch of science from ANY reputable institution, I'll eat my green, fake leather hat. First I have to go out and buy one though.
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Old 24-03-2015, 16:08   #29
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

It's Obama's fault
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Old 24-03-2015, 16:17   #30
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Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

And (Sorry Newt, but climate change is personal for me for this reason) full disclosure, I am a sixth grade science teacher and I don't need $100,000 from the Koch brothers to convince me to stop teaching about global warming. I temper it myself but not for the reasons that they espouse. To a child it is tragically dispiriting and discouraging to be told the Earth you are growing up into is going to hell in a handbasket, even if the evidence is there. So I teach about the evidence but I focus on the positives FOR THE CHILDREN. For adults, I hope we aren't all blindly or ignorantly dismissing valid, verified and verifiable data that is crucial to our successful custodianship of the Earth.
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