Abby Sunderland - SoloRound

[John A]

Winter is fast approching in the Southren Indian Ocean, and then she's faced with the South and East Coast of OZ during the winter and early spring in a year that has seen strange weather throughout the world.

I think this is a bigger can of worms than any discussion about record attempts.

[SvenG]

Originally Posted by Hirophant

I really can't see her restarting at this point after over three months at sea, I doubt she has the stamina or resources.

She would have time to rest up for a few months (my guess).

I also think she has shown enough ability to attract sponsors this time around. She seems a bit timid in her sailing but that is better than the opposite and she has rounded the Horn at younger age than anyone. She might not get the millions that have been behind Jessica's campaign but I can easily imagine an angel investor getting her enough to make it real.

If the following hadn't been in the Sail-World article there might still be a question about Jesse's record still standing, but it is there and that leaves the record up for grabs:

It is a matter of record that the WSSRC advised Jessica's team prior to her departure that her route would fall short of the RTW minimum distance.

I for one hope it spurs Abby on to try for it while I still look forward to Jessica (the individual) completing her most excellent journey.


-Sven

[SvenG]

Originally Posted by John A

Winter is fast approching in the Southren Indian Ocean, and then she's faced with the South and East Coast of OZ during the winter and early spring in a year that has seen strange weather throughout the world.

It only makes sense if she has a layover that is long enough to get her in sync with the right time to re-round Cape Horn, as I mentioned.



-Sven

[Hirophant]

It's been clear to me since mid Atlantic that at the speed she was going (which is overall about the same as Jessica) she was going to be hitting the Southern Ocean in mid-winter. I think it must have been clear to her too, maybe this is why she became depressed a couple of weeks ago and started to lament her slow progress (despite doing 160nm/day at that point). She's a month behind her published schedule, she should be at Cape Leeuwin by now but has yet to reach Cape Agulhas. She had banked on her faster boat enabling her to slip past Australia before winter set in, but it hasn't worked out.

It's hard to say what she should do at this point: if she sits out the winter in Cape Town she will probably miss the record, but if she continues she will probably face even worse storms than Jessica — is she and her Open 40 up to it? Mike Perham was unwilling to risk going south of NZ last May in his Open 50, maybe Abby would be better off going round the north of Australia, but the amount of islands and shipping would also be taxing for a solo sailor from a sleep management POV.

In the end Abby has been hamstrung by the need to set off on her voyage prematurely due to time constraints imposed on her by Jessica's voyage. If she had done another 3 months preparation the whole thing might have worked out so differently (but no record!)

[slomotion]

Originally Posted by Hirophant

maybe Abby would be better off going round the north of Australia, but the amount of islands and shipping would also be taxing for a solo sailor from a sleep management POV.

Ever since the 1968 Sunday Times race, the custom and tradition for solo circumnavigators is to pass south of Capes Horn, Good Hope and Leeuwin. But, traffic and sleep aside, other than that tradition and being able to say you rounded the 3 great Capes, there is nothing to prevent her from sailing north of Australia - it has no bearing on whether or not she sails RTW.

[Hirophant]

Laura Dekker is going North of Australia, in fact with the possible exception of Cape Agulhas she won't be rounding any of the capes.

[TaoJones]

Not that there's anything official about any of this, but going through the Ditch (the Panama Canal) is considered receiving outside assistance.

TaoJones

[sailorbyfate]

Wouldn't the Panama Canal be considered a stop? And since you are required to have 4 line-handlers aboard, is it still considered solo?

[TaoJones]

Yes, I believe it is considered a stop.

For the record, Abby has arrived in Cape Town.

TaoJones

[slomotion]

Originally Posted by TaoJones

Not that there's anything official about any of this, but going through the Ditch (the Panama Canal) is considered receiving outside assistance.

Yes, but that's because the Canal's transit rules necessarily involve "assistance" in violation of the "unassisted" rule. If you could simply sail through the canal, it would be no different from sailing through the Magellan Straits which does not disqualify you from a solo, unassisted, nonstop circumnavigation.

[bengtinge]

After the controversy about the length of the journey of Jessica Watson, I made a calculation of the length of Abbys journey. It is the shortest theroretical distance with one single defined waypoint that is the rule for calculation. I thought it was no problem, because the theretical distance past the 10 waypoints I used for ETA prediction will be 23500 nm from Cabo San Lucas and back.

The calculation shows that the distance is long enough if calculating from Marina del Rey, USA, about 21,970 nm, with a waypoint at Cape Town, as her journey is now.
But it seems too short if calculating non-stop from Cabo San Lucas Mexico and back with a waypoint near Cape Agulhas, the original plan, only 21,060 nm. The main difference is the distance from each starting point to Cape Horn.

If she had continued non-stop from Cabo and she wanted to follow the strict rules, she would have to visit a new waypoint in the Indian Ocean. My calculations hint that the waypoint would have to be the Antipode of Cabo San Lucas at 22°52S 70°05E, since it seems possible to sail the great circle from Cabo San Lucas to its antipode without touching land. To visit this point is not a big detour, 600-700 nm more, about 5-6 days extra for her.

By converting to a stopping journey, she saves the record, and that would have been possible also if this was discovered much later, that is defining start and finish to be at Marina del Rey and a stop at Cabo San Lucas.

My Excel sheet at http://goto.glocalnet.net/bengtinge/JessicaWatson.xls

/Ben, Sweden

[Stillraining]

Originally Posted by bengtinge

My Excel sheet at http://goto.glocalnet.net/bengtinge/JessicaWatson.xls

/Ben, Sweden

Holy Molly...I would not go to that trouble for myself let alone some one else.

Maybe Im not fit to leave the dock after all.

[Hirophant]

I expect Abby will end her journey at Marina del Ray now that she can, it makes more sense than having a homecoming in a foreign country. As to rules, Abby, (like Zac I think), said back at Cape Horn that she doesn't attach any importance to them.

The issue with Jessica was that we were under the impression that she was trying to comply with the WSSRC rules so as to create a de-facto record that everyone would acknowledge as superseding Jesse Martin's. (Of course, since then doubt has been cast on whether some other accepted circumnavigators complied with those rules.)

[John A]

Originally Posted by slomotion

Yes, but that's because the Canal's transit rules necessarily involve "assistance" in violation of the "unassisted" rule. If you could simply sail through the canal, it would be no different from sailing through the Magellan Straits which does not disqualify you from a solo, unassisted, nonstop circumnavigation.

To transit the canal one also must have an ad-measurer on board, travel to the bank to pay fees, wait for your transit day, etc, etc. Not to mention the increased shipping traffic found on both sides of the canal. Then there's the contary currents to deal with. Plus all the charter boats to dodge in the Caribbean.

[Stillraining]

Originally Posted by Hirophant

I expect Abby will end her journey at Marina del Ray now that she can, it makes more sense than having a homecoming in a foreign country. As to rules, Abby, (like Zac I think), said back at Cape Horn that she doesn't attach any importance to them.

The issue with Jessica was that we were under the impression that she was trying to comply with the WSSRC rules so as to create a de-facto record that everyone would acknowledge as superseding Jesse Martin's. (Of course, since then doubt has been cast on whether some other accepted circumnavigators complied with those rules.)

Well stated...and for me a MAJOR Jessica supporter a major let down..